In the direct contest between the two national parties that the Assam assembly election is this time, it's all about local leaders.
Highlights
- BJP and allies have at least 60 per cent chance of winning
- Calculation based on historical data, current alliances
- Congress losing Muslim support; tea workers switch to BJP
Based on historical data and current alliances, BJP and its allies stand at least a 60 per cent chance of winning Assam.
Here’s why.
Total population of state is 32 million.
Muslims (11 million) have switched from Congress to backing the main Muslim party, the AIUDF.
BengaIi Hindus are split between Congress and BJP.
Tea garden workers (5 million) have switched in last election in 2014 from Congress to BJP.
The Ahoms, indigenous, are substantially with the Congress. But the Bodos have moved towards the BJP, because the Bodo party has allied with the BJP.
Christians continue to support the Congress.
The Congress is trying to get Muslims to vote for it and not the AIUDF. If it succeeds to some measure, the Congress and allies will have a 50-50 chance (improving upon the current 40% chance, based on historical data and present alliances)
The Congress is also trying to win back tea workers. If they switch back from the BJP, Congress and allies’ chances go up to 60 per cent.
If BJP gets more tea workers on its side – its chances go up to 70 per cent. If Tribals also move over to BJP, its chances go up to 80 per cent.
In the 2014 general elections, the BJP showed huge gains - 25 per cent - upon its share in the state elections of 2011. That was partly because of the massive Modi wave that swept the country. But for this election, the BJP has also changed its strategy completely from Bihar - the last state which it contested and lost.
In Assam, the party has picked prominent local leaders who are fronting its campaign – presumptive Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal and master strategist Himanta Biswa Sarma. It has also formed significant alliances, including with the AGP.
In the direct contest between the two national parties that the Assam assembly election is this time, its all about local leaders.
The Congress, on the other hand, seems to be running on same-old-same-old. Tarun Gogoi, 81, is looking for a fourth consecutive term. The prominence bestowed upon his son, Gaurav Gogoi, turned Mr Sarma to the BJP – a prize catch for a party looking to quickly ramp up its clout. And the Congress has no alliance.