New Delhi:
Will a fear of Narendra Modi rising keep the Samajwadi Party from dumping the Congress? That and a need to ensure that his arch rival in Uttar Pradesh, Mayawati, does not get closer to power at the Centre is likely to influence Mulayam Singh Yadav's decision-making - with his 22 Lok Sabha MPs, the outside support Mr Yadav provides to the UPA has become a lifeline after Mamata Banerjee's angry exit from the UPA in protest against the Centre's decision to increase diesel prices, cap the supply of subsidised cooking gas to households, and open up the retail sector to foreign supermarket chains.
The day Mamata Banerjee stormed out of the UPA, the Samajwadi Party had attacked the Congress. Its general secretary Ram Gopal Yadav had said, "Congress has lost credibility and the party should not take our support for granted."
But the jitters in the Congress it seems have receded with two clear signals from Mr Yadav's party. One, Mr Yadav is protesting today not in Delhi, where important leaders of the Left and other parties shall gather, but in Lucknow. This will ensure that he underscores his opposition to FDI in retail in his core constituency and at the same time not make a political statement in Delhi.
The distancing is subtle but signal is clear especially after top sources in the party indicated that the Samajwadi Party is not keen on ending its outside support and may use the "support to secular forces" plank to back the Congress if the government needs the numbers.
This is a clear U-turn Mr Yadav's party has taken. For the last two weeks Mr Yadav has made scathing attacks on the Congress, and has been urging his party to prepare for mid-term elections - a strategy aimed at proving to the Centre that it needs to keep him happy.
Sources in the Congress say that back channel talks between the government and the Samajwadi Party seem to be paying dividends. In a visible sign of change, a top SP leader told NDTV that the "Congress' decline may strengthen the BJP and that may bring Narendra Modi to power. The SP can't contribute to strengthen the BJP or Modi. "
This indicates that the party could use the secular card to bail the Congress out if Mamata Banerjee makes good on her threat and her six ministers duly resign tomorrow.
That support will come grudgingly. Mr Yadav said yesterday, "Let this be a wake-up call for the Congress...what has it given the people other than price-rise and corruption?" As the seasoned politician assesses his political options, he has also deferred a meeting of his party's parliamentary board; senior SP leaders were to have met today to decide whether the SP would continue propping up the government. The Samajwadi Party too opposes the policy decisions that have provoked Ms Banerjee's dramatic exit and is participating in an all-India bandh called by the BJP-led opposition against those decisions today.
The other major factor that could make Mulayam Singh Yadav stay on as a UPA ally is Mayawati. Mr Yadav's bete noir has 21 MPs in the Lok Sabha, enough to keep the Congress-led coalition afloat and see it through a confidence vote. Mr Yadav can ill-afford to allow Ms Mayawati to become the crucial ally that helps the Congress complete its term.
Unlike Mulayam Singh Yadav, or Mamata Banerjee, who would like mid-term elections to consolidate on their big wins in Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal respectively, Ms Mayawati is likely to do her all to ensure that elections are not held now. After being uprooted in UP, she needs time to rebuild politically and that could make her cast her lot with the Congress. Ms Mayawati's BSP too provides external support to the UPA and has said that she will make her stand on the relationship clear on October 9. Significantly, the BSP is not participating in today's bandh.
Mr Yadav's decision is important not only for the Congress' future, but also for the way the BJP will plan its next steps. The main opposition party reportedly feels that till the Samajwadi Party decides to ditch the Congress, the BJP will not be in a position to take political advantage of the situation. As long as Mr Yadav keeps the UPA safe, any move to seek a special session of parliament or pushing for a confidence vote to test the UPA's strength could well back-fire.