Lucknow/ Delhi:
Three phases of polling in Uttar Pradesh are over. And there is no sign of Narendra Modi on the campaign trail in UP. As campaign for Phase IV inches to a close today- there are fears in the party that- that Modi may skip UP totally.
The BJP's star campaigner is said to be sulking. In what is seen as a clash of big egos, Mr Modi wants arch rival Sanjay Joshi out of poll planning in UP. Mr Joshi, who was in political exile for six years after an MMS scandal, was brought back by the BJP president last year and was immediately inducted into the team planning the UP campaign, much to Mr Modi's chagrin. The Gujarat CM first showed his displeasure by staying away from a BJP national executive meeting in Delhi, where Mr Joshi was prominently present.
Party president Nitin Gadkari is believed to be equally adamant that Mr Joshi will stay in the UP scheme of things. The party's top leadership is said to have signalled to Mr Modi that- while it would be good to have Mr Modi, the party has no dearth of star campaigners.
Some top leaders are still trying to broker peace. But they fear that with the Budget session of Gujarat assembly starting from February 23, the chances of Mr Modi on UP campaign trail are receding.
The party had planned about 25 rallies for Mr Modi across UP.
Mr Modi had earlier begged to be excused as he had his own intense Sadhbhavna or goodwill campaign that took him to the far corners of his state, Gujarat, which also votes later this year. But that ended on Sunday, on February 12. Since then, there has been the third phase of polling in UP and campaigning for the fourth phase ends today. Still no Mr Modi, who also skipped campaigning in Punjab, which voted on January 30.
Asked recently if Mr Modi would campaign in UP, senior BJP leader Sushma Swaraj could only say, "He may campaign."
There is more twist in the tale than just a star sulk. While the Gujarat CM is in great demand with BJP candidates and workers, many of whom say their campaigns are suffering from a lack of Modi, party strategists are not too sure that it is such a bad deal. For after three phases of elections in UP, party pundits reportedly assess that the Congress's high-pitched wooing of Muslims - the package for weavers, the sub quota for backward Muslims - has divided the 18% vote of the community between the Samajwadi Party, the BSP and the Congress. The BJP also reckons that the Muslims are voting for candidates on merit with no shrill Hindutva campaign to polarise them.
BJP spin doctors' point to the 2009 Lok Sabha elections to say that Mr Modi's campaign in UP failed to polarise the majority vote, as the Yadavs go with Mr Mulayam and Dalits with Ms Mayawati. In fact, to the contrary, they say, it polarised the Muslim votes against the BJP, in favour of the rivals. So much that it was the Congress won Faizabad, the epicentre of the BJP's Hindutva plank.
And then, there would no doubt be Mr Modi's own political calculations - perhaps far more potent than a disagreement with Mr Gadkari over a party functionary. Sources say Mr Modi's assessment is that the BJP is unlikley to register major gains in the UP assembly elections this time. The Gujarat CM, aiming as he is for bigger things in the next couple of years, possessively preserves his image as a game-changer. He would not want to dent that for a lost cause.
The BJP's star campaigner is said to be sulking. In what is seen as a clash of big egos, Mr Modi wants arch rival Sanjay Joshi out of poll planning in UP. Mr Joshi, who was in political exile for six years after an MMS scandal, was brought back by the BJP president last year and was immediately inducted into the team planning the UP campaign, much to Mr Modi's chagrin. The Gujarat CM first showed his displeasure by staying away from a BJP national executive meeting in Delhi, where Mr Joshi was prominently present.
Party president Nitin Gadkari is believed to be equally adamant that Mr Joshi will stay in the UP scheme of things. The party's top leadership is said to have signalled to Mr Modi that- while it would be good to have Mr Modi, the party has no dearth of star campaigners.
Some top leaders are still trying to broker peace. But they fear that with the Budget session of Gujarat assembly starting from February 23, the chances of Mr Modi on UP campaign trail are receding.
The party had planned about 25 rallies for Mr Modi across UP.
Mr Modi had earlier begged to be excused as he had his own intense Sadhbhavna or goodwill campaign that took him to the far corners of his state, Gujarat, which also votes later this year. But that ended on Sunday, on February 12. Since then, there has been the third phase of polling in UP and campaigning for the fourth phase ends today. Still no Mr Modi, who also skipped campaigning in Punjab, which voted on January 30.
Asked recently if Mr Modi would campaign in UP, senior BJP leader Sushma Swaraj could only say, "He may campaign."
There is more twist in the tale than just a star sulk. While the Gujarat CM is in great demand with BJP candidates and workers, many of whom say their campaigns are suffering from a lack of Modi, party strategists are not too sure that it is such a bad deal. For after three phases of elections in UP, party pundits reportedly assess that the Congress's high-pitched wooing of Muslims - the package for weavers, the sub quota for backward Muslims - has divided the 18% vote of the community between the Samajwadi Party, the BSP and the Congress. The BJP also reckons that the Muslims are voting for candidates on merit with no shrill Hindutva campaign to polarise them.
BJP spin doctors' point to the 2009 Lok Sabha elections to say that Mr Modi's campaign in UP failed to polarise the majority vote, as the Yadavs go with Mr Mulayam and Dalits with Ms Mayawati. In fact, to the contrary, they say, it polarised the Muslim votes against the BJP, in favour of the rivals. So much that it was the Congress won Faizabad, the epicentre of the BJP's Hindutva plank.
And then, there would no doubt be Mr Modi's own political calculations - perhaps far more potent than a disagreement with Mr Gadkari over a party functionary. Sources say Mr Modi's assessment is that the BJP is unlikley to register major gains in the UP assembly elections this time. The Gujarat CM, aiming as he is for bigger things in the next couple of years, possessively preserves his image as a game-changer. He would not want to dent that for a lost cause.
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