Why splitting with the BJP may not affect Nitish Kumar's government in Bihar

Patna: Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar returned to Patna this afternoon from a tour and virtually announced that his alliance with the BJP is over. "It is time to take a decision... conditions are tough now," he said.

At a conclave this weekend, his Janata Dal United or JDU is likely to ratify the chief minister's decision to ditch a partner of 17 years.

But if the alliance breaks down, the Nitish Kumar government will still stay in power in Bihar.

The Bihar Assembly has 243 members and the majority mark is 122. The ruling JDU has a strength if 118; it needs just four more to reach the majority mark.

This doesn't look hard for Mr Kumar as sources say the six Independent legislators may join his party.

Sources also say that that the JDU is likely to receive some help from parties like the CPI, which has one MLA in the Bihar Assembly. CPI general secretary A B Bardhan has made it clear that in case there is a vote in the Assembly, his party will abstain.

The BJP, on the other hand, is likely to go from almost equal alliance partner in the state to the principal Opposition party.

The party has 91 MLAs in the Assembly, and will not be able to cobble together enough numbers to independently form a government, unless Lalu Yadav's RJD, with its 22 MLAs backs them, a highly unlikely scenario.

And so, it seems the BJP had already decided to start withdrawing from the government.

Some of its ministers have not attended work for a few days now.

For now though, the focus is on a conclave of JDU legislators over the weekend in Patna.