Varanasi: The battle for Uttar Pradesh, which sends the maximum number of members to the Lok Sabha, could turn out to be an existential one for the Congress and Mayawati. For Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party, it could be a chance to emerge as a key player in a bipolar battle. These were some conclusions of political experts in NDTV's special show Battleground with Editor-in-Chief Sanjay Pugalia.
The road to Delhi lies through Uttar Pradesh and this has held true for the BJP ever since its stupendous 2014 mandate. The party has swept UP in every subsequent election -- Lok Sabha or assembly. The BJP's supporters believe the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya will reinforce the party's dominance.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's move to choose Varanasi as his constituency had a big role to play in securing the BJP's base in UP.
Varanasi is key because of several factors; the city's cosmopolitan background, magnificent cultural landscape and the position it enjoys as the country's oldest and holiest pilgrim centre make it the virtual nerve centre of the east, the panelists said.
"In 2014, when the BJP was planning a strategy, they needed a great performance and they had to perform in UP to reach the majority mark," said Sandeep Shastri, the National Coordinator of Lokniti Network.
It was felt then that if the Prime Ministerial candidate fights from UP as well as his seat in Gujarat, it could provide the big push the party needs in the state.
"Narendra Modi fighting from Varanasi also had an impact on the areas nearby. Varanasi's cultural significance has been a factor. Since 2014, there has been a lot of development that has happened," he added.
Barring a short gap, Varanasi has always favoured the BJP. The Modi factor has given a big boost to voting figures - jumping from 37 per cent in 2009 to 56 per cent in 2019 and 64 per cent in 2019.
A shift in the Muslim vote is also a turning point in UP, said Yashwant Deshmukh, the Founder-Director of CVoter. "The BJP, which used to get single digit votes per cent, now gets double-digit Muslim votes. Unfortunately, if Muslims vote for the BJP, they are called sarkaari Muslims," he remarked.
The BJP is reluctant to tinker with a winning formula. The party has repeated most of its MPs in Uttar Pradesh.
On the other side, Mayawati's BSP has been trying to stay afloat by fielding minority candidates.
Reading the game plan, Akhilesh Yadav's party has kept the Yadav tickets within the family and fielded mostly candidates from Other Backward Classes. 26 per cent of its tickets have gone to non-Yadav OBCs.
Leaving Mayawati out of the opposition alliance in Uttar Pradesh could have been a tactical error, said Mr Deshmukh. "You ignored a 12.5 (vote) percentage partner and brought Congress, a 2.5 per cent partner. I don't understand the math," he added.
In 2014, the BJP won 71 of the state's 80 seats. The number shrunk to 62 in 2019 and the Akhilesh Yadav-Mayawati alliance was seen to be the reason.
Now, the Samajwadi Party is contesting 63 seats. The rest -- including the Gandhi bastions of Amethi and Raebareli -- have gone to the Congress's share.