New Delhi:
It's one of the most controversial bills to ever enter Indian Parliament.
Now, a split within the ranks of its strongest critics brings hope and it appears the Women's Reservation Bill that guarantees 33 per cent reservation for women in Lok Sabha and state Assemblies will become a reality.
Over the years, this bill has had its supporters and detractors.
The Congress, the BJP and the CPM have openly argued in favour of it, while the Samajwadi Party, the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Janata Dal United have famously fought against it.
But now Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has reportedly shifted from the party line and backed the Bill.
Responding to the Union government's decision to table it on Monday in the Rajya Sabha, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) issued a whip asking MPs to be present and vote in favour of the bill. (
Read: Congress, BJP issue whip for Women's Reservation Bill)
At the same time Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Lalu Prasad Yadav on Friday met the Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, and asked him not to table the bill. He instead demanded an all-party meet. The bill would be a disaster, said the RJD chief. (
Watch: Lalu on women's bill)
The first test is in Rajya Sabha, where the bill needs support of 2/3rd MPs. That is 163 MPs in favour of the bill, out of 245. The bill has assured support of 160 MPs. (
Read: Women's quota: The numbers game)
The opponents, who have managed to stall it for 13 years, are few. So, a lot depends on fence sitters. The government is nervous. Members of Parliament (MPs) like Sumitra Mahajan have seen the first draft and the first skirmish over Women's Quota Bill way back in 1996. They know that the battle has just begun.
Rajya Sabha rules say:
# Constitutional amendments cannot be passed in a din, the House has to be in order
# Any one member can ask for division and delay the passing of the bill
This is what happened in May 2008. The Law Minister was shielded by MPs as papers were torn in the Rajya Sabha. The no din rule favours the opponents. And they are promising a ruckus.
Huddang hoga. kisi bhi tarah se pass nahin hone denge, says Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav.
But then the Rajya Sabha will be the start of a long haul. After the Rajya Sabha, the government will need 2/3 MPs in favour of the bill in the Lok Sabha too. The Opposition has a chance to stall in Lok Sabha.
Then 15 states need to ratify with a 2/3rd majority. The Congress, BJP and Left parties rule in 18 states. That may take a long time.
"It has been around for 13 years. It's long overdue. We will table the bill," says Union Law Minister M Veerappa Moily.
For 13 years minority has succeeded in defeating the majority on the quota bill. But now the government is ignoring the obstacles to set the ball rolling. But one-third reservation for women is still a long road ahead.