5 Reasons Why BJP May Prove Pollsters Wrong In Karnataka

There are five days left for the Karnataka election campaign to end, and challenging the state's poll history, which shows that none of the ruling parties have retained power in the last 38 years, is probably the biggest task at hand for the BJP this year.

While some opinion polls have suggested that the Congress is inching towards the majority, it may not be the most accurate picture of the real situation on the ground, as several instances in past elections have shown that the last-mile voter connect and booth management of the BJP are often better than the Congress, and in tightly contested fights with a third smaller party in the fray, the BJP often gains. In Karnataka, particularly, the Congress faces the challenge of converting its vote share into seat share at the constituency level, something it has struggled with in the past.

No chief minister has been able to retain power in Karnataka, and hence, while the odds might seem stacked against the BJP, it is important to remember that the party did come back to power in states such as Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, which have had similar election outcomes of voting out the incumbent. It also won a clear majority both in Tripura and Goa, where pollsters had predicted a tough battle.

With Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself on a mission to secure "nothing short of a majority" in Karnataka and a week left for the polls, the political countdown in the state may have just begun.

Here are the five factors that can alter the poll results:

Modi Factor

The biggest ammunition in the BJP's arsenal is Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and in the last two weeks, the PM has scaled up his campaign in the State, trying to connect with the voters, requesting them to vote for a "double-engine sarkar." In his roadshow in Central Karnataka on Tuesday, he assured an enthusiastic crowd that "he has seen them, and if they don't stop waving, their arms will start hurting." In Hospet on Tuesday, after specifically asking voters to take an oath that they will support him, he made a gesture of patting the back of the party worker who was translating his speech in Kannada for doing a good job. "The PM's sustained presence in the State has rejuvenated the josh in every karyakarta. There is definitely an upswing in the mood because it seems he is talking to us," a party functionary from Chitradurga said. The emphasis on the PM's campaign has also taken the attention away from the complaints of party leaders sulking for not getting a ticket. Now, from Friday to Sunday, he is expected to camp in the state, addressing rallies in different places, and covering the important districts of Bellari, Shivamogga, Badami, Nanjangud, and a grand show in Bengaluru. Political experts said in Karnataka, the Modi factor is known to impact the voters, resulting in a swing for the BJP. The PM recently also addressed nearly 53,000 booth workers virtually asking them to be partners in fulfilling his vision for the State, which the party said gave a lot of boost to the campaign.

Vote-Share vs Seats

It is important to remember that Karnataka, a state where parties have always had smaller vote-shares, also has a demography that plays an important role in the poll outcomes. The BJP has often never had a vote share higher than the Congress that is spread across the state, while the BJP is concentrated in many specific regions, which makes its gains often higher. The party's vote share and tally have been steadily increasing in the state since 1989, which shows the party has been expanding its voter base in Karnataka. The BJP has a much better seat share-vote share ratio and has always beaten the Congress at this, except in 2013 when it was reduced significantly. Even the JD(S) with a much smaller vote share ends up with proportionally a higher seat share as its support base is concentrated in the specific region of Old Mysuru.

Caste Calculus

The BJP has kept caste at the centre of its ticket distribution in the State. Party leaders said there were apprehensions of consolidation among both SC (Left) and SC (Right) groups in the State due to the outreach by Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge, and some discontent among ST communities, but with internal reservation announced by the State government, the BJP is likely to gain. Additionally, the party has put in great effort to consolidate its Lingayat voter base. The central leadership appointed BS Yediyurappa as a Parliamentary Board member of the party and also increased reservation for the Lingayat community, apart from doing the same for Vokkaligas, another dominant caste in the State. Yediyurappa, arguably the only mass leader the BJP has in the State, has been touring the State asking people to vote for the party. He has visited 40 assembly constituencies in 18 districts in the last three weeks, while his son BS Vijayendra who is also contesting polls from Shikaripura has a target of visiting at least 25 seats before the campaign ends. But the BJP's strategists know that the party is yet to get a full majority in the State Assembly on its own, but they say that even at its worst in 2013, when BS Yediyurappa had deserted the party and come up with a party of his own, it could have managed 92 seats if they had fought together, and now with the added factor of the charisma of the PM, the expanded BJP in Old Mysuru region, and the voter connect of the BJP, it can only do better.

Management Of Polls

A host of central BJP leaders have been given specific tasks in Karnataka, and these include many MPs who have been camping in seats seen as difficult for the BJP. The party is focusing heavily on Bengaluru, which accounts for 28 of the total 224 assembly seats in the state, and also Belagavi which has 18 seats. Apart from the PM, Home Minister Amit Shah, who started his campaign from Old Mysuru, has already come to the State 20 times in the last 70 days, and his major area of focus has been the toughest seats for the party, particularly the Lingayat belt of North and North Central Karnataka. The party feels that the north and north-central districts of Bidar, Gulbarga, Yadgir, Raichur, Bellary, Davangere, Koppal, Bijapur, Bagalkote, Haveri, Gadag, and Dharwad may prove decisive in the mandate, and the party has devised a specific strategy for these districts alone. While the most important challenges for the BJP are countering the anti-incumbency, the guarantees of the Congress, particularly income support to women and unemployed youth, are issues BJP leaders have been asked to aggressively counter. "The Congress has assured Rs 2,000 monthly to women-run households, but we are telling them how many promises has the Congress kept in the past," a senior functionary of the BJP said.

Bajrang Dal And A Fresh Lease To Hindutva

While Karnataka has often been in the news for issues such as the ban on the hijab, a political fight over Azaan, and Hindu groups calling for the economic boycott of Muslim vendors, the BJP has strategically pushed a local caste calculus over the party's saffron appeal, knowing very well that Hindutva has its limitations in the state. But the Congress manifesto calling for a ban on the Bajrang Dal and likening it to the now-banned Islamist organisation Popular Front of India has filled BJP workers and voters, said party leaders. "And the PM standing in Hosapet, which is known to be the birthplace of Lord Hanuman, spoke about it. It is now an issue here," said a BJP functionary.

On Wednesday, the PM chanted 'Bajrangbali ki Jai' in his rally in coastal Karnataka that led to loud applause in the audience. This matter will be central to the BJP's last leg of the campaign, party functionaries said. While the Congress feels the issue might consolidate Muslim votes in its favour, including in Old Mysuru, where a significant section of Muslims prefer to vote for the JD(S), the party is also anxious about this upsetting Hindu voters.