New Delhi: Preparations that started over a year ago on a campaign that centred only around local issues of the state, particularly of the poor, and pushing them aggressively throughout the last few months are among the factors that helped the Congress trump the BJP in Karnataka.
On Saturday, the Congress party won a comfortable majority in Karnataka, triumphing over the BJP, giving a boost to the former, months ahead of elections scheduled in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Telangana.
In Karnataka, the party put up a united face, not letting the differences between leaders such as Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar or the aspirations of other Chief Minister aspirants take centre stage, focusing on its promises of income support to women and 10 kg of free ration to women and the intent of delivery to the people.
The local unit of the party also requested its national leaders to stay away from attacks on businessmen so that the election did not digress from the core concerns of the people. The local anti-incumbency against the BS Bommai-led BJP government was very high, and the Congress devised a clever, aggressive campaign centred around local administrative failures. What worked for the Congress most was that its campaign in Karnataka focused on local matters of the people, with local leaders voicing them and promising local solutions for all of them.
Five things the Congress got right in Karnataka:
1. Local leaders, local issues
The Congress campaign right from the beginning focused on local issues, with local leaders making sincere attempts to not let the election become a "Narendra Modi versus Rahul Gandhi" one. The Congress had a mass leader in Siddaramaiah and a manager in DK Shivakumar, and it played on its strengths, even as the BJP struggled to get its act together. The BJP's biggest problem was the local anti-incumbency, and its three biggest leaders in the state - BL Santhosh, BS Yediyurappa, and BS Bommai had a say in the party, voters, and in the administration respectively. The BJP was excessively dependent on Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who gave an integrated appeal to the party's campaign that if left to local leaders would have ended up in a worse position. The party also managed to insulate its campaign from the discourse the BJP was trying to push, including factors such as 'The Kerala Story' and the proposed action against Bajrang Dal. The campaign revolved around millets, Bengaluru, Amul vs Nandini, and other micro issues, important for the state and its people, that made it more appealing. The Karnataka campaign is a lesson for the Congress to strengthen its local units and leaders and let them take the campaign forward.
2. Strategic poll management
The work on the Karnataka campaign was started by Congress member and ace political strategist Sunil Kanugolu as early as a year ago. Mr Kanugolu's team was instrumental not only in driving home the guarantees of the party, including a monthly income support of Rs 2,000 to every woman and unemployed youth, but also coming up with the "PayCM" campaign that set the ground for people of the state to vocally express their resentment. It was Mr Kanugolu's team that insisted on early preparations, bridging the divide between Siddaramaiah and Mr Shivakumar and setting the political narrative in the state, much before the poll climate set in. Interesting campaigns such as "KiviMeleHoova," meaning 'flower on the ear', which represents that someone has been fooled, kept the discourse of the Congress alive, forcing the BJP to run a defensive campaign. The two times the narrative of the Congress took a hit was when the BJP government increased reservation for Lingayats and Vokkaligas and even SC-ST communities, and when the BJP aggressively pushed the Bajrang Dal narrative. The biggest success of the poll management within the Congress was making the party workers and local leaders aggressive, organizationally strong, and not relying on "adjustment politics" the state's politics is often known for. "Rahul Gandhi also focused on local issues largely, did roadshows. That was the only way the Modi factor was addressed," a Congress functionary said. To give credit to the Gandhis, while Rahul and Priyanka addressed several rallies here, even Sonia Gandhi participated in a rally in Hubli this time, a rarity since the senior politician has been staying away from addressing political rallies since 2019.
3. Ducking the Hindutva attack
Congress's success this time has been largely due to a focus on local issues and avoiding getting entangled in Hindutva rhetoric. The Congress pushed its local leaders throughout, insulating them from the Modi impact, and in some ways, also from the fallout of Rahul Gandhi's picking on national issues. The lack of clarity over who will be the Chief Minister face, Siddaramaiah or DK Shivakumar, also led to communities voting for the party. The party received flak for making a promise to crack down on the Bajrang Dal in its manifesto, but its local leaders assertively countered the attack and showcased pictures of them being devotees of Lord Hanuman. The promise, however, helped in consolidating Muslim votes in favour of the Congress.
4. Making the campaign about the poor
The Congress was clear right from the beginning that it would look to consolidate the poor in favour of the party. The five guarantees of the party, including income support for women, unemployed youth, free ration, and free bus travel for women, helped the party consolidate its poor voters. In fact, the Congress gained heavily in the poorest districts of North and Central Karnataka, which are the poorest regions of the state.
5. Caste Calculus
A win in Karnataka is crucial for the Congress, and the strategic campaign of the party that saw large sections of the poor, including Dalits and STs, voting for it, is a lesson for the party in the upcoming poll-bound states where it has in the past many years witnessed the poor voters move to the BJP because of its welfare schemes. The win in Karnataka is also a massive boost for the Congress as it prepares to launch a pro-OBC campaign, even as regional players such as Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar are getting active in this space. The poll victory will expand the political ambit of the Congress in 2024, even as regional parties look to edge the party out or reduce its importance in attempts to unify the opposition. The party also consolidated Dalits and Muslims and overcame the challenge it faced in the past of being a party with a large but dispersed vote share, and hence fewer seats. With Dalit Mallikarjun Kharge as the president of the party and OBC Siddaramaiah as the Chief Minister, the party will optimize its campaign in different states. It is important to note that the other Chief Ministers of the Congress, including Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan and Bhupesh Baghel in Chhattisgarh, also hail from OBC communities. By pushing for a caste census, Congress hopes to reclaim space in OBC politics of the Hindi heartland, and counter the BJP's Hindutva consolidation project.