Left Or Congress For Kerala? The Numbers Explained By Prannoy Roy

Kerala will vote in 2016 Assembly polls on May 16 while results will be declared on May 19.

Highlights

LDF, UDF only 4 seats apart, 0.25% swing in votes can reverse position
BJP could influence the elections by taking away votes from UDF
Last panchayat election, a precursor to state polls, are in LDF's favour

Thiruvananthapuram: The ruling Congress and the Opposition Left's alliances are only four seats apart in the current Kerala assembly, and a tiny 0.25 per cent swing in votes in Monday's election can reverse the position.

The Congress-led UDF has a wafer-thin majority at 72 seats in the 140-member assembly - majority is at 71 - and the CPM-led LDF has 68.

To touch 100 seats and a mammoth majority, the UDF will need only a 3.5 per cent vote swing in its favour, while the LDF will need to gain four per cent vote share to reach that number, based on historical data and current alliances.

The index of opposition unity or IOU in Kerala is very high, with most smaller parties allied with either the Congress or the CPM, and the two alliances have alternately ruled the state since 1980.

Enter the BJP. The party had a six per cent vote share and had won no seat in 2011. By the 2014 national election, it had increased its vote share to 11 per cent, the equivalent of four seats and it hopes to build on that momentum in this election.

How the BJP performs on May 16 when Kerala votes, could influence whether the UDF wins or the LDF - a stronger BJP is bad news for the UDF.

If the BJP gains even two per cent vote share in this election, it is likely to get 1.5 per cent of that from the UDF and will help the LDF get to a majority; if it gains five per cent, four per cent is likely to come from the UDF's share and the LDF will be home safe with 79 seats.

The UDF has won the last two elections - the 2011 assembly polls and the 2014 general election where it won the equivalent of 80 assembly seats.

But the LDF will pin its hope on the fact that no party or alliance has been returned to power in 36 years and also that it dominated the last panchayat elections held six months ago. Panchayat elections have traditionally been a good indicator of which way the winds blow in Kerala assembly elections.