PM Modi has campaigned extensively for the BJP in the 2016 Kerala assembly elections. (PTI photo)
Highlights
- BJP expected to influence which of LDF and UDF wins Kerala elections
- BJP hopes to build on the momentum of the 2014 general elections
- A stronger BJP is bad news for the UDF, tilting odds in favour of LDF
As traditional rivals Congress and the Left - allies in West Bengal - engage in a bitter battle for Kerala, they cannot write off the BJP factor.
The party could influence which of them wins.
The BJP, which has so far been a minor player in the state, hopes to build on the big leap it made in the 2014 general election,
nearly doubling its vote share to 11 per cent from six per cent in the 2011 assembly polls.
The party has never won an assembly or parliamentary seat in Kerala and wants to change that in Monday's election. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has addressed several public rallies in Kerala and top leaders including BJP chief Amit Shah and senior ministers like Rajnath Singh have campaigned hard too.
The state's big players are dismissive. Asked how important the BJP is, the Left's 93-year-old stalwart VS Achuthanandan said, "It will not happen, the people of Kerala will not let it happen."
BJP's K Rajasekharan rejected the charge that the party was a new entrant to the political scene in the state.
"We are quite confident of our strengths. I don't think the BJP can open their account in this election," said Chief Minister Oomen Chandy of the Congress, who hopes to win a second straight term, unprecedented in the last 36 years.
Based on historical data and current alliances, a stronger BJP is bad news for the Congress-led UDF. If the BJP gains even two per cent vote share in this election, it is likely to get 1.5 per cent of that from the UDF and will help the LDF get to a majority at 72, with UDF settling for 68 and the BJP none.
To win a single assembly seat, the BJP will need a three per cent swing, 2.5 per cent of which will come from the UDF. The LDF is then likely to win 74 seats and the UDF 65.
If the BJP gains five cent, four per cent is likely to come from the UDF, which will have to settle for 58 seats, with the LDF winning 79. With a five per cent swing, the BJP can win three seats. It had won none in 2011, but its 11 per cent vote share in the national election equaled four assembly seats.
The BJP's K Rajasekharan said he counts "both the LDF and the UDF as the main enemy," adding, "As a result of their regime people are suffering a lot."
Votes will be counted in Kerala on May 19 along with four other states, including West Bengal
where the Congress and the Left are partners.