The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has made history in Haryana by winning a record third term, defying all pollsters, and political pundits. Following a setback in the general elections, where the BJP lost five seats to Congress, the party went back to the drawing board, tightened its strategies, and quietly ran a campaign aimed at retaining the state and gaining pro-incumbency votes.
In the Lok Sabha elections held six months ago, the BJP was leading in 44 assembly segments, while the Congress-Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) alliance was ahead in 46, with respective vote shares of 44% and 46%. The trend of the BJP losing seats and vote share in state elections compared to Lok Sabha polls gave Congress the confidence that it could win the state, leveraging support from wrestlers, farmers, and Agniveer protests.
So, why exactly did Congress lose?
1. Overconfidence
This is the third state election after Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh where the Congress, projected as the favourite, suffered a shocking defeat. The party's defeat demonstrated that the BJP has the upper hand in direct one-on-one contests. Even with favourable conditions, victory cannot be declared until the last vote is counted. Many YouTube journalists predicting a Congress victory contributed to a sense of complacency.
2. Factionalism
Intense factionalism plagued the party, with senior leaders Bhupinder Singh Hooda, Kumari Selja, and Randeep Singh Surjewala at odds. The Hooda camp dominated ticket distribution, marginalising other factions. Selja abstained from campaigning for many days, prompting Rahul Gandhi to intervene at a rally to emphasise party unity.
3. Failure To Manage Rebels And Forge Alliances
The party faced 29 rebels in the fray, which it failed to manage effectively. In contrast, the BJP, which was in power, had 19 rebels. In Haryana, independents and smaller parties play a significant role; an analysis indicates that 17 of these rebels hurt the Congress's prospects. The AAP, which was an ally during the general elections, was not accommodated and claims it negatively impacted Congress in four seats.
4. Limited Benefits
In the 2024 general elections, Congress secured 68% of the Dalit and 51% of the OBC votes, leading to a 14% drop in BJP's vote share. In the state elections, Congress gained around 11% of the vote share largely at the expense of the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), which was routed with less than 1% of the vote, losing 15% compared to 2019. However, the JJP's vote share was concentrated in Hisar and Gurugram, limiting Congress's statewide benefit.
Additionally, the BJP increased its vote share from 37% to 40%. For the Congress to win, it needed to significantly dent the BJP's vote share, which it failed to do in the state polls.
5. Silent Non-Jat Consolidation
The BJP's strategy of appointing Khattar and later Saini effectively engaged non-Jat voters. Brahmins, Baniyas, Khatris, OBCs, and certain SC groups believed they could only get a member from their community as Chief Minister through the BJP, not Congress. The dominance of the Hooda family may have contributed to a perception of Jat-centric politics within Congress.
This influential community's discontent may have led some voters, unhappy with the BJP, to refrain from switching to the Congress. The BJP successfully framed the contest as Jats versus non-Jats, reaping benefits in regions like Ahirwal, Braj, and the GT Road Belt.
6. Congress Couldn't Sweep Even the Jat Belt
In the 37 seats where the Jat community comprises more than 20% of the electorate, located mainly in the Rohtak and Hisar divisions, there was a three-way split in 2019 between Congress (14), JJP/Others (11), and BJP (12). In this year's general elections, Congress benefited from the farmer/wrestler/youth protests, establishing leads in 27 segments. Of the 10 seats the JJP lost in 2024, six went to Congress and four to BJP.
However, in the assembly polls, the honours were shared between the Congress and the BJP in this region, with independents and rebels from the Jat community impacting the Congress's tally in the region.
7. BJP's Neutralisation Of Anti-Incumbency
The BJP's losses in the general elections stemmed from discontent among certain voting segments regarding some policies. Instead of running a national campaign, the BJP fought a very localised election.
To counter local anti-incumbency, the party replaced its chief and 40% of its MLAs. In contrast, Congress awarded tickets to all its incumbent MLAs, many of whom faced natural anti-incumbency due to perceived inaction in their constituencies. This strategy backfired for the Congress.
8. RSS Support For BJP
The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and BJP, which had previously been at odds during the general elections, reconciled their differences. In early September, the RSS launched a rural voter outreach programme, deploying at least 150 volunteers to each district. Between September 1 and 9, the RSS conducted around 90 meetings in each Assembly constituency and nearly 200 meetings with party workers and rural voters, aiming to reinforce unity and strategy.
9. Split Of The Dalit Vote
Congress captured 68% of Dalit votes in the 2024 elections by warning that the BJP would change the constitution and end reservations if it gained power. This narrative was absent in the state polls.
The BJP won eight of 17 reserved constituencies, up from five in 2019, while Congress increased its tally to nine from seven. The JJP, which won four reserved seats in 2019 and played a kingmaker role, ended with none this time. Congress and AAP had led in 13 of these seats during the general elections, leading to a loss of four seats. Denying Kumari Selja a prominent position on Congress posters and in ticket distribution may have played a role, as the BJP framed this as an insult to Dalits.
10. Pro-Incumbency
Ultimately, no government can win a record third term without effectively working on the ground and positively impacting at least some segments of the population. The beneficiaries of various government schemes seemed to have backed the BJP due to the effective implementation of both central and state initiatives. Additionally, the people were pleased with the end of the "kharchi parchi" system in government recruitments.
The BJP has perfected the art of winning states where it has held power for an extended period through a combination of development work, strong organisation, and tactical manoeuvres.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author