Opinion | 2024 Verdict Settles Some Questions - And Raises A Few New Ones

This election can be described as a contest where the ebullience of the losers trumped the enthusiasm of the winners. The results provided a reason to smile to many parties that constitute the mosaic of India's multi-party democracy. Narendra Modi described the outcome as the "victory of the world's biggest democracy", and it indeed is so. Apart from the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP), the Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF), the J&K Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and a few others, good fortune favoured most others this election.

Coalition Dharma Again

The talk of a 'Congress-mukt Bharat', which had been the leitmotif of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) since it ousted the former in 2014, is now moot given how Rahul Gandhi has pulled his party out of the depths of irrelevance and almost doubled its seat share. Though its tally of 99 did not touch the three-digit mark - a distinction claimed by the BJP alone since 2014 - the Congress's performance can still be seen as a major feat.

On the other hand, Narendra Modi and the BJP's pan-India dominance has been reaffirmed again. Falling short of a majority by 32 seats, the BJP is eyeing a third term as the ruling party. Its tally of 240 surpasses the INDIA bloc's combined seat share of 234. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), in turn, has won 291 seats, which provides it with a clear mandate for forming the government.
In a way, the decade-long single-party dominance in the Lok Sabha will now be replaced by a coalition - the norm in Indian politics between 1991 and 2014. Modi's hat-trick thus does not equal Jawaharlal Nehru's unencumbered three wins between 1952 and 1962.

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Taking Cue From Vajpayee Era

Modi himself, who has seen unfettered power since 2001, first as Gujarat's Chief Minister till 2014 and as Prime Minister after that, will have to adjust to the paradigm of 'coalition dharma' now. In 1998, Chandrababu Naidu of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) made Atal Behari Vajpayee yield the post of Lok Sabha Speaker. Apart from him, the BJP's other major ally, the Janata Dal (United)'s (JD-U) Nitish Kumar, is also known to be a hard bargainer. Both Naidu and Nitish had been Modi's contemporaries in their respective states when he was at the helm in Gujarat. Today, the two have emerged as kingmakers.

It's possible now that the INDIA bloc would try to wean away the BJP's allies. But given Naidu and Nitish's past experience with INDIA, that may not be easy. A lot will depend on the BJP's coalition management, and in that, a leaf from the Vajpayee era may be of help.

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For the opposition, this marks a big resurgence with the Congress having reversed the bad luck of the last two elections. With 99 seats, its floor leader in the Lok Sabha will now be recognised as a legitimate Leader of Opposition (a party needs 10% seats to be so recognised, but 44 seats in 2014 and 52 in 2019 deprived the Congress of this privilege).

'Rigging' Claims Fall Silent

Meanwhile, allegations of 'rigging' and the aspersions cast on the integrity of the Election Commission seem to have faded into obscurity. On January 25, when asked by this writer how the Congress could possibly have won the assembly polls in Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and Telangana if the EVMs were indeed rigged, Sam Pitroda, the Congress's overseas chief and a tech czar according to many, had patronisingly brushed the query aside. Petitions were moved in the Supreme Court questioning the credibility of EVMs and VVPATs (Voter Verified Paper Audit Trail). The apex court, however, did not indulge the petitioners, who among other things advocated going back to paper ballots, citing examples from abroad. 

The first post-poll meeting convened by the INDIA bloc on June 1 did not discuss an alternate plan of governance, even as the participants exuded confidence that Modi would be defeated. Instead, they asked the ECI to count the postal ballots before opening the EVMs, which, the poll body quickly pointed out, was already the norm. 

Their appeals rebuffed by the apex court, the Opposition then made a last-minute attempt to discredit the world's largest-functioning election machinery, which since 1952 has acted as a beacon for electoral management the world over. Congress leader Jairam Ramesh alleged on the eve of counting that officials in seven states had been 'pressured' by the ruling regime. Union Home Minister Amit Shah was alleged to have telephoned '150 District Magistrates' to instruct them about 'managing' the poll verdict. Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar, taking immediate cognisance, asked Ramesh to furnish details on June 3 itself, so that corrective action could be taken before counting began. But Ramesh sought a week's time to furnish these details.

The results on June 4 disproved all the naysaying. Congress and its allies got a fair share of the booty. While the BJP fell short of a majority in the Lok Sabha, it won the Vidhan Sabha polls in Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha with its allies. In Odisha, the 25-year hegemony of the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) drew to an end. The Congress drew a blank in Andhra Pradesh and Sikkim, finished third with merely 10% of seats in Odisha, and won a single seat in Arunachal Pradesh (where it anyway had not fielded candidates for 41 of the 60 seats).

Upset In UP, Continuity In Bengal, And New Wins

The Samajwadi Party's (SP) resurgence in Uttar Pradesh, where it won more seats than the BJP, was remarkable. The Congress rode on its coattails and won six seats (the party has just two seats in the state assembly). The SP's Akhilesh Yadav harped on his Pichhda-Dalit-Alpsankhyak, or the PDA, formula; INDIA was rarely referred to. In neighbouring Bihar, though the Rashtriya Janata Dal's (RJD) Tejashwi Yadav emerged as an energetic campaigner, his party could not benefit from its INDIA bloc membership.

In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress has held its ground, while the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena and the Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in Maharashtra have registered a sound resurrection after seeing deep splits and losing their symbols to rebel factions: Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP.

The truncated tally of the BJP can also be attributed to the erosion of its relations with erstwhile allies Shiv Sena and SAD. In Rajasthan, the sidelining of Vasundhara Raje may have enabled the Congress to stall the BJP's sweep. The BJP must thus introspect on its inter- and intra-party management as it reviews the 2024 verdict.

On the other hand though, by winning a seat in Kerala, the BJP has expanded its presence in the South. This, combined with the victory in Odisha, pushes the party's pan-India footprint.

However, the BJP's loss in Faizabad - of which Ayodhya is a part - and the scraping win in Meerut of the telly "Ram", Arun Govil, point to a possible waning of Hindutva's appeal.

Questions Around Three Independents

Results in three seats in Punjab and Jammu & Kashmir are also of concern. 

While Rahul Gandhi rejoices in his party's upsurge, the son of Indira Gandhi's assassin, Sarabjit Khalsa, has been elected as an Independent from the Congress-dominated Faridkot seat in Punjab. Another Punjab seat, Khadoor Sahab, has returned Amritpal Singh as the winner; he is currently lodged in Assam's Dibrugarh for his separatist activities. 

In Jammu & Kashmir's Baramulla, Abdul Rasheed, better known as 'Engineer Rasheed' and currently in Delhi's Tihar jail over terrorism funding charges, has defeated former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah as well as Sajjad Lone, son of yet another Kashmir stalwart. The unprecedentedly high voter turnout in Jammu & Kashmir is a good indicator. But the victories of these three Independents in sensitive border states do not bode well for India's democracy.

(Shubhabrata Bhattacharya is a retired Editor and a public affairs commentator)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author