The first interesting political event of this new year in Karnataka was a dinner that led to speculation over the power dynamics within the ruling Congress party, specifically between Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister and State Congress president D.K. Shivakumar.
An 'Apolitical' Get-Together
While Shivakumar was in Turkey with his family to ring in the new year, public works minister Satish Jharkiholi hosted what he described as an “apolitical” dinner. The gathering was attended by Siddaramaiah, along with some cabinet ministers from the scheduled castes.
Satish, the oldest of the four Jharkiholi brothers who hold strong influence in both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress, is known for his opposition to D.K. Shivakumar. In Belagavi, Shivakumar loyalist and women and child welfare minister Laxmi Hebbalkar is a rival to the Jharkiholi brothers, further strengthening the fault lines within the state Congress leadership.
Jharkiholi has openly criticised Shivakumar and has, in the past, called for an increase in the number of Deputy Chief Minister positions in the cabinet, as well as a change of party president.
As a result, the dinner sparked speculation about a potential shift in leadership, with whispers of a change in State Congress president and calls for a full-time president based on the “one man, one post” principle. Although no public demands were made, and all ministers, including the Chief Minister, denied any political significance to the gathering, such “apolitical” events rarely remain insignificant in Karnataka's ever-shifting political landscape. Shivakumar, too, has categorically dismissed all speculation.
Some media outlets referred to the gathering as an “Ahinda” event, a term that refers to Siddaramaiah's electoral base of minorities, SCs, STs, and non-dominant castes, in contrast to D.K. Shivakumar's appeal among the dominant OBC Vokkaliga caste.
These traditional caste-based fault lines will undoubtedly influence the ongoing power struggle, but the immediate question is whether this dinner and speculation is part of efforts by the Siddaramaiah camp to negate an inevitable push by the Shivakumar lobby for the Chief Minister's post.
The dinner gained so much attention that the Congress high command, eager to avoid further speculation, instructed home minister G. Parameshwara—also a scheduled caste leader—to cancel a dinner he had planned for the following week. Some ministers who were supposed to attend it have publicly expressed displeasure with the orders to cancel it.
The DK-Sidda Tussle
After the Congress secured a historic victory in the 2023 Karnataka Assembly elections, the Chief Ministership tussle was settled in Siddaramaiah's favour. The compromise was that D.K. Shivakumar would remain the sole Deputy Chief Minister and hold the post of State Congress president. While there has been speculation about a mid-term transfer of power, there has been no concrete confirmation of such an agreement.
Siddaramaiah and his allies have repeatedly denied any such arrangement, while those close to Shivakumar insist there was an understanding. Ministers aligned with Siddaramaiah have publicly declared that "the Chief Minister's chair is not vacant", which has been the party's stance on the matter so far.
Whether or not there was an agreement at the beginning of this term, much of the bargaining now hinges on the current circumstances. Both sides are unlikely to back down without a prolonged struggle, and this reality is one the Congress party will have to navigate in the months ahead.
Clashing Forces
Two key challenges facing the party high command are, first, ensuring that the power tussle remains under wraps, and second, ensuring smooth functioning if a transition is to occur. Both tasks are difficult to manage.
It is important to note that in 2023, the issue was settled in favour of Siddaramaiah primarily because he had the support of a significantly larger number of elected MLAs, and that support remains intact. A majority of his cabinet ministers also back him.
However, Shivakumar is a party loyalist with his own support base within the party. He is close to the high command and to Mallikarjun Kharge and, most importantly, has the backing of the influential OBC Vokkaliga community. His supporters argue that he worked tirelessly as State Congress president to deliver the 2023 victory and, therefore, deserves his chance to be Chief Minister. He has also served as the party high command's trusted troubleshooter during difficult times.
Sidda's Troubles
The alleged MUDA scam and corruption allegations have certainly tarnished Siddaramaiah's “clean image”, but he remains the most powerful leader in the party with significant control over the MLAs. His welfare guarantees remain popular among the public.
Siddaramaiah will complete two and a half years in office by the end of 2025. Having already served a full term between 2013 and 2018, he holds the record for the longest time in office as Chief Minister in Karnataka since the 1980s, with over six years and 200 days. Even the legendary Ramakrishna Hegde had an uninterrupted term that lasted only five years and 216 days.
Once Siddaramaiah presents the state budget—his third budget this term and the 16th of his illustrious career as a legislator—the action regarding his future may intensify. He does not appear willing to step aside. His opponents, both within the party and outside, have been biding their time, waiting for an opportunity to strike.
On To The High Command
How far this will go depends on how much the Congress high command is willing to tolerate. While each leader may have his loyalists, the high command has its own loyalists, particularly with Karnataka veteran Mallikarjun Kharge at the helm. Shivakumar has repeatedly reiterated his loyalty to the Congress, and how far he is willing to push for power will also test that "loyalty".
Either way, the wheels are turning, as they always do in the world of politics. Many of the allegations against Congress leaders seem to fit into the power struggle in a state where factions within both the BJP and Congress have been accused of “adjustment politics” to maintain power, regardless of which party holds the mandate.
Ultimately, 2025 could bring the ultimate test for Siddaramaiah the strategist, and that test may come from within his own party, not from the opposition.
(TM Veeraraghav is Executive Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
