One of the tiredest cliches in recent times is the oft-repeated comment of Harold Wilson that "A week is too long a time in politics". It has been cloned in multiple forms to suggest the fragility of political forecasts. If a week is a long time, certainly six weeks is like ages in making a political prognosis. However, there can be no greater vindication of this cliche; than the six weeks which have elapsed since Modi began his rallies in Muzaffarpur on the July 25. Prior to that date, analysts had suggested a close fight, a razor's edge, a hung outcome and at best, a photo finish between the NDA and the Grand Alliance. Having gone to all Modi rallies beginning from Muzaffarpur and ending on the September 1 in Bhagalpur, I witnessed not incremental but tectonic attitudinal changes. This alters the likely prognosis. So what has changed so significantly? Why does the outcome look so different now? Part of the reason is no doubt on account of a closer analysis of perceived electoral psyche and what may be called the basic fundamentals. How have these fundamentals been recycled in the minds of voters?
I believe there are five key factors:
1) The traditional debate between development versus identity politics has played out for long. Most analysts minutely examine the caste and sub-caste components, assuming falsely I believe that local leadership can mechanically transfer votes from one entity to another. Electoral calculus based on such mechanical calculations may be traditional but increasingly naive. While opinion polls are often misleading, they are also pointers of broad directions. Consider for instance the recent opinion poll by News24 based on the findings of the Chanakya group according to which 57% people responded that the caste factor will not play an important role while more than 50% consider that the traditional Muslim-Yadav combination will not affect the Bihar polls. Over 40% emphasized the importance of development along with law and order. Clearly governance and development outcomes have an increasingly important role in shaping voter decisions even in a society as stratified as Bihar. This is where Modi's unequivocal statement at the massive Bhagalpur rally that he is seeking the NDA mandate on a development agenda kicks in so significantly.
2) Nitish's appeal is based on his development record. However, his 10-year report card was presented in the back-drop of governance paralysis during the preceding period. His alliance now with the same forces that he and the people of Bihar hold responsible for its economic stagnation undercuts the credibility of his appeal. How are people to be assured that what happened in the past will not happen again? This also dilutes the electoral acceptance of the Common Economic Programme currently being crafted by the JD(U). Its implementation would remain problematic. Incidentally, Nitish's alliance also embraces the Congress against whom a 10-year campaign had been launched almost in a Mission Mode for denying Bihar a Special Category Status, low central sector outlays and systemic neglect based on partisan considerations. Thus the Modi theorem that trains with two engines run faster than one engine mentioned at the Muzaffarpur Rally, implying the benefits of synchronized action by the state government and the centre, carries a significant message. This has not been missed by the people of Bihar.
3) Do demographic differentials matter? Are voters in a younger group or the youngest group inclined to opt for a different model of governance than the older age group? Empirical evidence of revealed preference remains problematic. However, evidence suggests that a younger age group is more pronounced in its aspirational characteristics than an older age group. In experimental studies of voter's information processing and preferences in the USA, Lau and Redlawsk (2006) found age to have persistent effect in their preference. Age influences the cognitive abilities of individuals. Modi's repetitive comments to audiences in Muzaffarpur and Saharsa about the use of mobile phones, the ability to listen to their favorite songs, the need for digital connectivity, and an assured power supply drew repeated applause from young listeners. Electoral calculus overlooks the voting preference of not only the young but very young Bihar. Furthermore, women constituted an important erstwhile NDA supporter. Greater empowerment to Local Bodies, reservation in Government recruitments, bicycle programs and other measures had tilted their preferences towards Nitish. However, the recent dramatic increase in crime rates against women, which has increased by 11% during 2012-13, alters choices; Increasingly they look aligned to the choice of the very young.
4) While Bihar may have made progress in recent years, it is nowhere close to its potential or compelling needs. Successive Committees have analysed the ingredients of its backwardness. Apart from a stratified social order inhibiting freer mobility of labour and capital, the more contemporary factors relate to reticence of private capital, given the poor security environment, unreliable infrastructure, absence of job opportunities, stagnant agriculture and large outward migration. The Bihar Special Package announced recently by Modi at Saharsa of the public outlay of 1.25 lakh crores for multi-sectoral projects is a step in this very direction. The development projects planned under the Bihar Special Package will lead to significant benefits and positive outcomes for the state- both direct and indirect. The direct outcomes include enhanced GDP growth, improved skills, gainful employment and improved agricultural productivity. It makes Bihar a large common market, securing intra-state integration and catalyzing private investment.
5) A recent DIPP-World Bank report titled "
Assessment of State Implementation of Business Reforms" (September 2015) looks at the reforms implemented by states under the 98-point Action Plan on "Ease of Doing Business" during January 1 to June 30, 2015. Overall, Bihar ranks at 21st among all States and Union Territories in the country and was among the 16 states with poor implementation status between 0% and 25% that needs an immediate jump start to reach 100% implementation. Seeking synergy with the ambitious "Make In India" program and the extensive 98-point reform program coupled with implementing the Bihar Special Package can make a decisive difference. Piggy-backing on large public outlays can catalyze substantial private flows. This is something which the state failed to do earlier or even in the last ten years of the Nitish's rule.
The sequence of events have changed and so have the equations. Demographic differentials, the hope and expectations generated in the minds of the younger voters, the quest for better life quality and the probability of the Modi governance rubric delivering outcomes distinctly better have altered the prognosis. Bihar is poised for an NDA win. The coming weeks will only consolidate this likely outcome.
NK Singh is a member of the BJP, former MP (Rajya Sabha), has held key bureaucratic assignments and has been a member of the Planning Commission.Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of NDTV and NDTV does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.