Opinion | A Gun At A Trump Rally Won't Stop Trump From Rallying For Guns

Incendiary battle cries fill the air as two opposing camps get ready for a face-off. Both sides have their chants and are blowing their trumpets, and they see the other as antithetical to their beliefs. It's reminiscent of warring houses from Game of Thrones or Viking duels from days of yore. But this isn't a mediaeval tale, it's a modern-day spectacle. Welcome to an election year in the United States of America in 2024.

America has long been a two-party system, but what we now have is a stark Manichean duopoly, driven by an ideological civil war. Each of the two warring parties believes that its own vision of America must be saved anyhow, and for that to happen, the other side must be vanquished at all costs.

The 'Butler Bullet'

Former President Donald Trump's rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13 turned into a nightmare as a lone gunman, Thomas Matthew Crooks, a 20-year-old from Bethel Park, opened fire. It was a shot that was heard around the world. 

At a time when many Democrats - one poll says 65% of registered Democrats - want Joe Biden to bite the bullet and make way for another candidate, Donald Trump took a literal bullet. Fortunately, no lasting damage was done to the former President as the bullet grazed his right ear. However, sadly, a rally attendee was killed and two others were critically injured.

Biden, Vice-President Kamala Harris, and former President Barack Obama, all passed on their concern for Trump's safety and unequivocal condemnation of the heinous attack - and rightly so. A deep sense of reflection ensued, and the American shibboleth acknowledged that this was not who they were. After all, in a robust democracy, the call is always for ballots over bullets.

There is a lot to unpack here. History is a good teacher (even though in America, the phrase "it's history" may often be used dismissively). Most millennial Americans - and certainly Trump's newly anointed running mate, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance - weren't even born when Republican messiah Ronald Reagan survived an assassination attempt in 1981. Some of Reagan's predecessors, like Abraham Lincoln, James Garfield, William McKinley, and, of course, John F. Kennedy, weren't as lucky as him (it's another thing that Reagan probably wouldn't recognise the Republican Party and what it has become today).

Secret Service

The Secret Service has come under fire (no pun intended) and is being castigated for its failure to secure the premises and prevent an active shooter from getting within striking range of a former President. Ironically, the Service was formed the same year as President Lincoln's assassination, but their primary duty back then wasn't protecting presidents, vice-presidents, former presidents, or presidential candidates. Instead, the Service was under the U.S. Treasury and tasked with eliminating counterfeiting, a problem that emerged from the ashes of the Civil War. It was only after the assassination of McKinley in 1901 that the Secret Service was entrusted with the protection of Presidents.

'America Dodged A Bullet Too'

As CNN political commentator Van Jones pointed out, "It wasn't just Donald Trump who narrowly dodged a bullet, but America too". It wouldn't be wrong to think about the dangerous anarchy that could have unfolded had things gone south.

We don't have to look too far either. In 2021, when Donald Trump refused to accept the electoral outcome and urged his supporters to "take back our country"? As Congress commenced an exercise to determine the peaceful transfer of power, an unruly pro-Trump mob stormed the Capitol, temporarily suspending the democratic process. Trump's supporters, who at one point had clamoured for a wall to be built to keep people out, wasted no time in climbing the walls of the Capitol. America's literal political and democratic edifice was breached and is now forever codified as the insurrection of January 6.

Ironically, Trump's running mate on the ballot was once a 'Never Trumper' and had openly called him a threat to democracy. But flip-flopping is common in politics, especially when it's a ticket to the top on offer.

Who Was Crooks?

Conspiracy theories abound, though the motive behind Crooks' action is not known yet. 
Crooks was a registered Republican, who used an AR-15 assault rifle that many have sought to ban and many from the core Grand Old Party (GOP) base have continuously defended. The irony is that the GOP, which has long considered itself pro-life, has also been pro-guns. It's a party that has unequivocally backed gun ownership as a way of life, espousing guns, glory, and god-fearing Americans. The First Amendment protects free speech, press, assembly, and religion, while the Second Amendment allows most people in the United States to lock and load.

Trump's 'Revenge'

Many political pundits have critiqued Trump for stoking a febrile and hostile environment and encouraging violent tendencies among his base. Trump himself has brazenly indicated intentions of governing with a vendetta and inflicting "revenge" on those who crossed him.

The recently concluded Republican convention in Milwaukee was perhaps a sign of the GOP's post-Butler outlook. It was almost a dystopian MAGA gathering. The four-day convention had different MAGA themes for each day: Monday was "Make America Wealthy Once Again", Tuesday was "Make America Safe Once Again", Wednesday was "Make America Strong Once Again", and Thursday, the final day, was the cherry on the cake - "Make America Great Once Again".

The aftermath of the Butler bullet is such that Trump no longer needs to appeal to a Republican base. Instead, it's old-time Republicans who are now appealing to Trump's base. He has won the Republican nomination for Commander-in-Chief for an unprecedented third time and closed the convention with a speech that evoked a Lazarus-like rising sermon and mentioned the events of Saturday, using the event as a metaphor for how he will not be taken down. On that fateful day, Trump with a bloodied ear and red stains on his face, held a defiant fist and yelled, "Fight!" as the Secret Service fought to cover him and take him off the podium when he was shot. It's now the image of the year. Political pundits see the unfortunate episode as one that will further solidify Trump's base and give him a chance at doing a Grover Cleveland and serving non-consecutive terms in the Oval Office. 

What about gun laws? Well, that's like a bad playlist on repeat, with several lawmakers, mostly from the GOP, giving anodyne homilies after every shooting. "The only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun". Little reason to assume the events of Butler, Pennsylvania, will bring about a change in their approach to stricter gun laws.

Ironically, as we speak about the bullet, it's fair to be reminded that Trump, in his speech at the National Rifle Association (NRA) convention just weeks before the Butler attack, had brazenly said that he would be the best friend in the White House for gun owners, and that "Joe Biden was coming for their guns". Irony, loud and piercing. 

(Akshobh Giridharadas is a Washington, D.C.-based policy professional. He was a former journalist based out of Singapore and was a reporter and producer with Channel News Asia (CNA) covering international business news.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author