Towards the end of the 16th Lok Sabha in 2019, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a prophetic statement in parliament: "Once again I want to give my best wishes to you, may you work harder that you get an opportunity to bring a no-confidence motion again in 2023." The treasury benches burst into loud cheers and laughter. The video clip has now gone viral on all media platforms, social and legacy.
One wonders why on 26 July 2023, the newly formed 26-party opposition grouping, INDIA, was so hell bent to prove Modi's prophesy right by moving a no-confidence motion against his government in Lok Sabha.
Incidentally, 26 July is the date when the nation, for two-and-a-half decades, celebrates the day as Kargil Vijay Diwas.
Since the BJP has a brute majority in Lok Sabha, the outcome of the motion is known. So, why is one looking forward to it with excitement and anticipation? The live telecast of the debate and all hype around it, will, in the end, be centred around one question -- who gains and who loses in setting the right narrative, setting the agenda, giving talking points and galvanising its rank and file to take on the rival political formation for April-May 2024 parliamentary elections.
The Opposition grouping INDIA gives an unconvincing argument for moving the no-confidence motion - to force PM Modi to speak on Manipur. Over 50 thinking heads of the 26-party opposition grouping must have gone into detail over the issue before, making the intent known and moving the motion. In their wisdom, they must have thought it to be a wonderful idea to bring PM Modi and the ruling BJP to their knees.
There are five ways in which the INDIA alliance is actually doing a huge favour to PM Modi and the BJP by pushing this no-confidence motion against the government. It may just be committing a self-goal or as the Hindi idiom goes, 'Aa bail mujhe maar'.
First, the opposition alliance claims that it is seriously concerned over the Manipur issue and is moving a no-confidence motion to force PM Modi to speak on the same issue. The question is - hasn't the chair of both Houses of Parliament agreed or even given the ruling to discuss the issue? Home Minister Amit Shah, on more than one occasion, appealed to the opposition grouping INDIA to discuss the issue. But the contention is, under what rule? Does it really matter to people at large, more so to people of Manipur under which rule the issue is taken up in Parliament? For people, rules, A or B for a discussion is far too abstract, but the issue out there is real.
Second, the no-confidence motion is a one-line motion which does not mention any specific issue. So almost anything under the sun can be taken up by the Speaker concerned to take on its rival, ruling and opposition parties. It is not going to be limited to Manipur. A whole lot of other issues will come into play from both sides. Manipur will only be the one among many.
It is an occasion to see who exposes whom. The INDIA formation surely thinks that it will expose the government and PM Modi in particular. But should it be reminded of the 2018 no-confidence motion when Modi tore them apart in his concluding speech. In the following parliamentary elections, the BJP further strengthened its position, winning 303 seats on its own and two-thirds with allies.
Third, PM Modi's oratorical skills are beyond doubt. He will have a lot to say about Manipur, its historicity, the way successive Congress governments handled it, the present conflict situation there, and the viral video (about which he has already spoken). At the same time, he will also have a lot to say about West Bengal, Rajasthan, Bihar and Chhattisgarh. How similar crimes in these states were brushed under the carpet by the INDIA grouping, Left-Liberal groups and its echo chamber.
On Wednesday, while inaugurating the newly-built architectural marvel, Bharat Mandapam, International Exhibition cum Convention Centre at Pragati Maidan, Modi gave an indication on how his speech on the no-confidence motion could go - he spoke about his third term in government, "Modi ki guarantee" - in his next term, how India will become the third largest economy in the world. He also took on his rivals and critics for trying to stall the project through various means including petitioning the judiciary on one pretext or the other.
The occasion will also give Modi a chance to take a swipe at the opposition from a public platform over the INDIA name and its inner contradictions. He could even highlight the demise of the UPA in contrast with the NDA celebrating 25 years of its existence.
The Congress is seen to be bending backward to accommodate the hard push by Arvind Kejriwal and Mamata Banerjee. That becomes even more interesting in view of the fact that in a straight BJP vs Congress fight in 190 seats in 2019, the BJP - with a strike rate of over 92 per cent - won 175 and the Congress could manage only 15 seats. The BJP speakers may highlight this fact.
Fourth, INDIA moved the no-confidence motion on July 26, which the nation celebrates as Kargil Victory Day. The Congress is inadvertently providing the BJP further ammo by clubbing Rahul Gandhi's presence at the Jawaharlal Nehru University with the so-called Tukde Tukde Gang, Khoon Ki Dalali. His recent statements abroad that India is not a nation and asking the US and Western nations to intervene in India against Modi to "save democracy", did him no favours. He called ally Indian Union Muslim League a "completely secular party". It was reminiscent of Mani Shankar Aiyar seeking Pakistan's intervention to remove Modi. The BJP may like to make a further dent in the already bruised nationalist credentials of the Congress.
The INDIA grouping leaders are doing no favour to themselves by making it a habit to often wear 'kala kapda' or black clothes as a mark of their protest in Parliament. In Rajya Sabha, Union Commerce Minister and Leader of the House Piyush Goyal was very sarcastic about that, equating their black dress with their dark future ahead.
Last year, when on August 5, the Congress staged a 'kala kapda' protest against unemployment and price rise, Amit Shah turned the tables on them, questioning - "Why choose the day when PM Modi laid the foundation stone of the Ram temple in Ayodhya?"
Fifth, Rahul Gandhi will be missed during the no-confidence debate. He has brought in a great deal of aggression and colour in his speech in the past. Despite the fact that he is disqualified and as of now he can't contest either 2024 or 2029 elections, for many people, he remains to be the prime ministerial candidate of the Opposition alliance.
Rahul Gandhi may not be a great orator but his presence and speech draws a great deal of attention from the people and from the media. His absence may not be a happy situation for the Congress, but some others in the opposition benches may be happy for the chance to make their presence felt.
(Sanjay Singh is a senior journalist based in Delhi)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.