Opinion: A Simple Majority Is Very Much In BJP's Reach. Here Are The Numbers

As the general elections approach, both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Congress-led INDIA are powering through their campaigns. Reports are that election dates will be announced by mid-March.

In the myriad poll reports that flood the news during election seasons in India, it's not uncommon to find parties and politicians describing seats as 'strong' or 'weak'. But how are they classified as such? Let's decode this. 

This 'strength scanner' this season has led the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi to launch a focused outreach in the Eastern and Southern parts of India, while the Congress has been trying to firm up alliances in Northern and Eastern regions. There are a few methods through which parties distinguish strong seats from the weak. We will follow the simplest approach here, in which the strength of a seat is ascertained by the number of times a party has won it in past elections. 

The last delimitation exercise was carried out in 2008, which led to the renaming of a few existing seats and change in the composition/structure of each seat. The 2009 Lok Sabha elections were fought after these changes. Hence, any seat-by-seat comparison prior to the 2009 elections is not fruitful. 

Let's consider the last three general elections-2009, 2014 and 2019-to classify seats into four categories,  A, B, C, and D.

• Category A: While the BJP has 95 "Strong" seats, the Congress has 17. Forty of these 95 seats for the BJP are in North India, 25 in West, and 15 each in East and South India. Of the Congress's 17, eight are in South India, five in the East and four in the North.
• Category B: The BJP has 167 "Relatively Strong" seats, and the Congress 34. The parties have won these seats twice in the last three elections
• Category C: There are 82 "Difficult" seats for the BJP, and 183 for the Congress. These are seats that the parties have won just once in the last three Lok Sabha elections
• Category D: While the BJP has 199 "Weak" seats (those that have never been won in the last three elections), the Congress has 309. These also include seats the parties they have left for their allies. The BJP didn't field candidates for 107 seats in 2019, while the Congress did so for 121 seats. These were seats that their allies contested (largely classified under C & D categories). 

As can be seen from the table, the BJP, in comparison to the Congress, has a higher number of strong and relatively strong seats and much fewer difficult or weak seats. This gives it the strength and confidence to win a hat trick in 2024. 

Categories A and B alone could fetch the BJP 262 seats-just 10 short of a majority. This is of course if it manages to hold on to these seats. The Congress, meanwhile, can fetch just 51 seats, which is just three short of 54, the number required to be the official Leader of the Opposition. 

Congress In A Tight Spot

That the Congress faces more than 300 seats which have never been won shows that it is nearly impossible for the party to win a simple majority of its own. Even hardcore supporters today feel that 100-150 is a good bet for the party.

On the other hand, of the 199 seats that the BJP has never won, 61 are in East India, 98 in South, 17 in North and 23 in West. This highlights how the party has literally 'maxed out' in the North and Western parts of India. What this signifies is that the BJP needs to focus on the East and South for additional gains. The Prime Minister, cognisant of this fact, has already visited Tamil Nadu, Odisha and West Bengal four times in 2024. 

BJP's Focus Is On East And South

Of the 309 seats the Congress has never won, 108 are in East India, 55 in South, 99 in North and 47 in West. This highlights how the Congress has been wiped out in the Eastern and Northern parts of India. It has stitched up alliances with the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, the Rashtriya Janata Dal in Bihar, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha in Jharkhand and the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi and Haryana to shore up its prospects. Such liaisoning hasn't worked out with the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal.

The BJP is focussing on the C and D categories to improve its tally in Eastern and Southern India. There is already buzz about a possible alliance with Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Odisha and Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh.  Whether the BJP will retain power depends on its ability to win a majority of its strong and relatively strong seats in 2024. And, the Congress-led INDIA bloc's success in halting the BJP's march hinges on its ability to restrain the party in these very seats. 

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.