President Joe Biden's decision to drop out of the presidential race on Sunday has left everyone guessing who his replacement will be. He has backed his Vice-President, half-Indian Kamala Harris. But it's unclear at this stage whether she will indeed be the party's nominee. The Democratic Party convention next month in Chicago (August 19-22) is going to be a tumultuous one. But it is believed the party delegates might just endorse Harris before that. The endorsement at the convention will become a mere formality by then.
Not since Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1968 has any Presidential candidate dropped out of a re-election campaign. The Democratic Party appears to be in disarray. If Harris becomes the party's presidential nominee, will she be able to take on Donald Trump, who is riding on a sympathy wave since his brush with death last week?
Many say the selection of Harris will be music to Trump's ear. Two days after the assassination attempt, the latter announced that J.D. Vance would be his running mate. The Trump-Vance team will be too hot to handle for any Democratic Party candidate, who will have no time on his or her side to give a tough fight to the duo. This might make Europe even more despondent because the last thing the Europeans want to see is the return of Trump, and his deputy becoming the Vice President.
Doom And Gloom In Europe
In his poem The Second Coming, William Butler Yeats questions whether humanity is on the brink of a revelation or heading towards further devastation. His angst is reflected in these famous words: "Things fall apart, the centre cannot hold; mere anarchy is loosed upon the world..." They captured the dark mood prevailing across a war-torn Europe, symbolised by the ominous image of a "rough beast slouching towards Bethlehem to be born".
Yeats's Europe was reeling from the aftermath of the First World War. Today's Europe is gripped by a similar sense of unease and chaos as the Russian onslaught in Ukraine continues to rage with no peace deal in sight. On top of that, Europe's anxiety and fear over Trump's potential return to power, especially with Vance, appears to be at its peak. The parallels between the post-war disarray that inspired Yeats to write The Second Coming and the current commotions in Europe cannot be overstated.
Understanding Vance
The prospect of a second coming of Trump was already troubling Europe's globalised, liberal world order. But the entry of Vance, a 39-year-old first-term senator from Ohio, has pushed Europeans to the edge. The possibility of Vance becoming the US Vice-President and potentially succeeding Trump as President later has raised huge concerns in Europe.
Vance shot to fame in 2016 with his memoir, Hillbilly Elegy, which depicted his upbringing in a struggling working-class family in the 'Rust Belt'. The book, which was later adapted as a Netflix drama, is both a personal story and a sociological analysis of the white working-class experience in America. Vance's narrative resonated with many Americans, particularly those who felt left behind by globalisation and economic change.
Vance is married to Usha Chilukuri, who is of Indian descent and a practising Hindu. They met at Yale Law School and got married in 2014. He is believed to have been influenced by his wife's Hindu faith, but not enough to prevent him from converting to Catholicism in 2019.
Why Did Trump Pick Him?
In his early years as a politician, Vance called Trump "America's Hitler". But later, he completely surrendered to Trumpism.
So why did Trump pick him as his running mate?
Vance, with a working-class background, is from Ohio and has considerable influence in the "Rust Belt" states that were once industrialised and manufacturing hubs. Trump has said in one of his social media posts that his running mate "will be strongly focused on the people he fought so brilliantly for, the American workers and farmers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota, and far beyond".
But Vance's influence in the "Rust Belt" region was not the only reason he was picked. His views on globalisation, immigration, NATO, and China complement those of Trump. He is being seen more as an heir apparent to Trump, considering he is not even 40.
Indians may like to see Harris win the nomination, because of her Indian connection. But Europe will certainly pin all its hope on her and pray that she comes out victorious in the November election.
Why Is Europe Wary Of Trump And Vance?
After winning the election nearly four years ago, one of the first things President Biden did was declare to the world that "America is back". Biden was referring to the US reasserting its leadership role on the global stage, particularly after the decline of US influence during the Trump administration.
If the Trump-Vance team wins the election - which now seems likely - Europe fears that the US would once again abandon its global leadership role. Trump has previously advocated for a more isolationist and nationalist approach, prioritising American interests over international cooperation and multilateral agreements. In Hillbilly Elegy, Vance has echoed similar views on these issues.
A reduced role for the US leader on the global stage could mean less engagement in international institutions and agreements, more focus on bilateral deals and transactions, reduced commitment to global issues such as climate change and human rights, increased emphasis on national sovereignty and border control, and potential withdrawal from or renegotiation of international agreements.
Specific Concerns Of Europe
Europe believes that the Trump-Vance administration will pursue a peace deal with Russia, which could have significant implications for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Vance's views on Ukraine suggest he may prioritise a peace deal over supporting Ukraine's territorial integrity. Specifically, he has stated that Ukraine should abandon its claims over the land captured by Putin, which could be seen as a concession to Russia. He said in a 2022 interview with an American portal, "The Ukrainians have to make some hard decisions about what they're willing to give up in order to get a peace deal. And if that means giving up some territory, that's what they're going to have to do."
However, Europeans were aghast to hear his views, and now that he is Trump's running mate, they appear to be more alarmed. They vehemently argue that such concessions would embolden the Russians to invade other European countries, such as Poland. Trump, too, openly said during the first presidential debate that the war was draining out the US economy, that Putin was his friend, and that he would end the war soon after assuming office.
Europe's Security Fears
Vance once told Fox News in an interview that the US should reconsider its commitment to NATO. "I think we need to rethink our commitment to NATO. I think we need to ask ourselves, 'Why are we still bearing the burden of defending Europe?'... I think it's time for Europe to step up and defend itself," he said.
Europe is apprehensive that a Trump-Vance team could further this agenda, potentially weakening the alliance and reducing American influence in global security matters. Vance, like Trump, is also against foreign aid. It is likely their administration might cut foreign aid and reduce participation in international development programmes, and that is bound to impact global stability and humanitarian efforts.
Trade Barriers, Trade Wars
Both Trump and Vance have expressed strong support for protectionist economic policies. This could lead to higher tariffs on imported goods, renegotiation or withdrawal from international trade agreements, and a general reduction in global trade. Vance in his book laid huge emphasis on domestic production. He has held on to his views and they appear to be more than just rhetoric. His focus on boosting domestic production and reducing dependency on foreign manufacturing aligns with the broader nationalist agenda that Trump pursues. This could lead to a more insular US economy, potentially sparking trade wars and reducing global economic integration.
Protectionist policies could lead to retaliatory tariffs from other countries, sparking trade wars that harm the global economy. Efforts to bring manufacturing back to the US could disrupt global supply chains, leading to economic instability and higher prices for consumers.
Fears About Unilateral Decisions
The Trump administration was known for its unilateral approach to foreign policy, often bypassing traditional diplomatic channels and international agreements.
Biden's foreign policy, in contrast, is based on consensus politics. For example, Biden has worked on building coalition partners to counter China's rise. This has proven more effective than Trump's unilateral actions. The fear is that a Trump-Vance team might continue this trend, undermining multilateral institutions like the United Nations and the World Trade Organization.
As President, Trump had withdrawn the US from the Paris Climate Agreement, arguing it was unfair to American workers. Although Biden rejoined the agreement, a Trump-Vance administration could once again ditch the pact, significantly weakening global efforts to combat climate change.
I have never seen Europe so worried before. Many leaders are already gearing up for a four-year "disruption and chaos". A few governments are already reaching out to the Trump camp, while others are struck by inertia and have accepted their fate.
There is, however, one notable exception to this brooding atmosphere. Hungary is the only European country, also a NATO member, which has openly welcomed Trump's second coming. The Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, who is on a peace mission in Europe, said last week in a letter to European leaders that Donald Trump had a plan and he was prepared to immediately negotiate for peace in Ukraine if he won the election.
But at what cost? That weighs heavily on everyone's mind here in Europe.
(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with the Western media)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author