AAP: The Bubble That Has Just Gone Bust

(Swapan Dasgupta is a Delhi-based political commentator with avowedly right-wing inclinations)

Those blessed, unfortunately, with slightly long memories may recall the front page of a pink paper in the last week of December 2013 announcing the entry of Adarsh Shastri, a grandson of Lal Bahadur Shastri, into the Aam Aadmi Party. Shastri, it was said, had left a Rs one crore salaried post to join Arvind Kejriwal's crusade against corruption and for "alternative politics".

The news about Shastri was important because it was the starting point of a media blitz that suggested that after its staggeringly impressive debut in the Delhi Assembly election, AAP was going national in a big way and would field candidates all over the country for the 2014 general election. The easily excitable TV channels went into a tizzy and till the beginning of February this year every other panel discussion centred on the AAP phenomenon. From top-notch Infosys executives such as V Balakrishnan and banker Meera Sanyal to long-time activists such as Medha Patkar, every notable it seemed was climbing on to the jhadu bandwagon.

Particularly impressed was the editorial class that felt AAP was the best vehicle to stop the BJP and Narendra Modi capitalising on the shortcomings of the Congress-led UPA Government. AAP, claimed its cheerleaders, would make a grand entry into the 16th Lok Sabha with as much as 100 MPs.

It is worthwhile to now see how Adarsh Shastri, the gentleman who set the ball rolling and who claimed to be the political heir of his grandfather, fared. He contested as an AAP candidate from the Allahabad constituency and polled exactly 6,439 votes. In terms of ranking he was sixth.

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Shastri was hardly the only person who got more media traction than votes. Infosys alumni V Balakrishnan contesting Bangalore Central received 39,869 votes, Meera Sanyal contesting Mumbai South for the second time secured 40,388 votes. Anjali Damania, who shot to fame levelling charges against Nitin Gadkari did a little better in Nagpur, receiving 69,081 votes.

More instructive was the performance of those who are regarded as activist icons in the world inhabited by NGOs. Their most iconic figure was undoubtedly Medha Patkar who contested Mumbai North-East. In the AAP scale of things she did rather well securing 76,451 votes.

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The other celebrities from the 'activist' world whose mere mention makes a section of the media go starry-eyed demonstrated the reach of their influence. In Kanyakumari, anti-nuke activist SP Udaykumar received 15,314 votes; in Khandwa, Narmada Bachao Andolan star Alok Agarwal got 16,799 votes; in Khunti, Dayamani Barla notched up 11,822 votes; and in Bastar, the celebrity Soni Sori got the endorsement of 16,903 voters.

In Haryana, billed as the AAP's next big conquest after Delhi, its celebrity candidate secured a respectable 79,452 votes, notwithstanding an opinion poll released by him suggesting he was clearly in the lead. Unfortunately, it wasn't good enough for even a bronze medal. In the state as a whole, AAP secured only 4.2 per cent of the popular vote-hardly a potentially government-forming performance.

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Indeed, had it not been for the remarkably good showing in Punjab-four seats and 24.4 per cent of the popular vote-and a respectable maintenance job in Delhi, AAP may well have been history. As it is, it may have to answer those critics who feel that there was a disproportionate diversion of scarce resources for Kejriwal's purposeless vanity battle in Varanasi.

The future of AAP warrants another blog. For the moment, the new party's miserable all-India performance demands some explanation of media motives. What was the three month AAP hype based on? Quite literally, AAP has turned out to be a paper tiger.

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