Opinion: Advantage Ashok Gehlot? BJP Avoids Leadership Tussle In Rajasthan

The ruling Congress in Rajasthan and the opposition BJP are set for an intense battle for 200 seats when the state votes for a new government on November 25. The BJP is looking at cashing in on anti-incumbency and Narendra Modi, while the Congress party is banking on welfare schemes and the Ashok Gehlot government's public outreach programmes. Both parties are steeped in internal conflicts and hope to play them to their advantage.

Rajasthan is known to vote in a new party every five years. Since the 1993 mid-term assembly elections, no incumbent ruling party has been re-elected for a second straight term. If the trend continues, the BJP should be the beneficiary this time, after five years of Congress rule.

The BJP is also focused on exploiting the rifts within the Congress, most prominently the open tussle between Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and Congress dissident Sachin Pilot.

"The BJP will come to power with over 160 seats as people have realised that the Congress' appeasement policy is against national interests. My personal view is that Sachin Pilot and Congress high command are hardly visible as Gehlot is portraying it as his election," says former BJP MLA Shaitan Singh.

Rajasthan has had many incidents of law-and-order breakdown, particularly crimes against women, in the last five years. Corruption cases like the infamous 'red diary', flashed in the Rajasthan Assembly by a minister who was later dismissed by Gehlot, have become the talking points for the BJP in election rallies.

Sources say despite corruption and law and order issues, Gehlot faces less anti-incumbency than anticipated. In these circumstances, adding to the BJP's challenge is how people have received populist programmes announced by the Congress government - like free electricity up to 100 units, LPG gas cylinder at Rs 500, enhanced old age pension etc. Voters like freebies, though they also believe no matter who rules in Jaipur, freebies from the government of the day are guaranteed.

"Unlike in 2014, there is no Modi wave in Rajasthan. Our government has rolled out several welfare schemes that have directly benefited people. In previous elections, when we - MLAs - used to tour our constituencies, people's mood was visible. This time people are welcoming us as they have seen the hard work of the Gehlot government help improve their life," says Saleh Mohammad, Rajasthan Minister for Minority Affairs.

"Women are fed up of inflation and the youth are disillusioned due to unemployment, which are both the failure of the Modi government at the Centre, and people understand it well. We are confident of forming the next government," the minister asserted.

However, there is huge dissatisfaction among Congress MLAs. The party has conducted many electoral surveys, including one on popularity of its MLAs and other eligible candidates. Having made it unscathed this far, the Congress's prospects would depend on the wise selection of candidates based on winnability.

Protests by Congress workers against some MLAs will compel the state and Delhi leadership to tread cautiously on distributing tickets.

The constant bickering between Gehlot and his one-time deputy Sachin Pilot played out in the public domain throughout the Congress's term, and may not be forgotten by the electorate. They may have called a fragile truce for now, but it is not enough for people to forget the time and resources lost in managing the recurring rebellion.

The Gurjar and Meena belt of eastern Rajasthan, comprising 24 constituencies and accounting for five per cent of the electorate, voted for the Congress in the 2018 elections as Pilot, then state party president, was hopeful of becoming Chief Minister. However, seeing Pilot, a Gurjar, marginalised in the last five years, the community may opt for the BJP this time. The Congress is trying to rake up the Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project (providing drinking water to 13 districts in east Rajasthan), which has been delayed due to disputes between the state and central governments.

The Jats, the most prominent OBC group, have never been happy with Gehlot. Then there is the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party of Nagaur MP Hanuman Beniwal, which is preparing to field candidates in Jat-dominated constituencies. There are experts who believe that this Beniwal factor could damage the Congress more than the BJP. Should this happen, the Congress could be in trouble in areas where it did very well in 2018.

The Congress is also wary of the new tribal party - Bharatiya Adivasi Party (BAP). BAP has emerged in place of the previous BTP (Bharatiya Tribal Party). BTP won two seats in 2018. BAP has done well in some tribal parts of southern Rajasthan in local elections. Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) had polled almost 5 per cent votes in 2018. However, the party has been dormant of late, after its Rajasthan MLAs shifted to the Congress.

The BJP, too, is plagued by inter-party strife and so far, has not projected a chief ministerial face. The party leadership under Narendra Modi seems to tell the voters to trust the symbol and allow the party's democratic process to identify the next chief ministerial candidate. Vasundhara Raje, a senior BJP leader and former Chief Minister, is fighting to stay relevant in the state but has been cold-shouldered by the national leadership. Raje's followers are angry as the BJP has refused to project her as presumptive Chief Minister and has rejected many of her supporters as poll candidates. In fact, the BJP is looking to foster a new leadership in the state and is fielding seven MPs in the assembly polls, including Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore.

The BJP is banking on PM Modi to attract Hindu votes. The party has half a dozen leadership contenders - Union Minister Gajendra Shekhawat, leader of opposition Rajendra Singh Rathore, former state party president Satish Punia and Alwar MP Mahant Balak Nath. However, nobody has the appeal of Raje. Nor is the party leadership confident of projecting any one of them.

Which boils down to an Ashok Gehlot Versus Who situation.

Chief Minister Gehlot looks stronger and taller in the absence of a known challenger to confront him. That is somewhat similar to the Modi versus Who situation ahead of the 2024 national election.

(Bharti Mishra Nath is a senior journalist.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.