Opinion | Is The Vatican Ready For A Black Pope?

On Saturday, Pope Francis was laid to rest in Rome, his funeral ceremony marked by deep reverence and sorrow. More than a hundred foreign dignitaries, including heads of state and government from across the Western world, led by US President Donald Trump, gathered under the solemn gaze of Michelangelo's dome to honour a pontiff who had sought to heal divisions, championed migrants and embraced change.

In the award-winning film Conclave, actor Ralph Fiennes delivers a brilliant performance as Cardinal Lomeli, the man tasked with organising the election of a new pope. Fast-moving and full of old-fashioned intrigue, the film dramatises the politicking among cardinals - a practice technically forbidden by Pope John Paul II's rules, but often whispered about in reality.

With an actual conclave to elect the next Pope now looming over the Vatican, the movie, released last year and based on Robert Harris's gripping novel of the same name, feels eerily timely.

As Catholics mourn, the Church quietly shifts its attention towards the impending papal conclave. Of the 252 cardinals alive today, only 135 - those under the age of 80 - will pass through the great doors of the Sistine Chapel to elect the next pope. This will be the largest conclave in modern history, a clear reminder of how vast and global Catholicism has become. And with most of these men appointed by Pope Francis, his vision for a more inclusive, outward-looking Church will loom large over every secret ballot.

In a recent interview, Robert Harris likened the conclave to a global election played out behind locked doors, a theatre of ancient ritual and raw human ambition. "There is a medieval element to the whole thing, which is very powerful," he reflected, capturing the intoxicating mix of grandeur, utmost secrecy and human frailty that makes the choosing of a new pope one of the most dramatic moments in public life.

Predictably, there's the usual secular framing of 'conservative' versus 'progressive' factions - predictably, because that divide does exist among the cardinals who will serve as both voters and potential contenders for the coveted post. And yet, beneath the grandeur of this process, a pressing question is stark and overdue - could the next Pope be Black? Could he be from the Global South, where the majority of Catholics live?

Election Wide Open?

According to the Western media, this time, the election is extremely open. But there are a few names that are being touted as frontrunners, like Italy's Cardinal Pietro Parolin, a seasoned Vatican diplomat. As Secretary of State, he was effectively Pope Francis's right-hand man. While critics see him as a bit too pragmatic, supporters believe he offers a steady global vision. From Asia, there's strong buzz around Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, often dubbed the "Asian Francis" for his warmth and focus on social justice. His deep pastoral experience in a country where Catholicism thrives could make him a powerful bridge between tradition and change.

Catholicism, as the fastest-growing religion in Africa, lends authority and power to the continent's voice and carries considerable weight in the Vatican. Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu from the Democratic Republic of Congo is a fiery defender of the Church, shaped by years of navigating violence and hardship. Ghana's Cardinal Peter Turkson, a charismatic presence who once played in a funk band, blends conservatism with surprising openness on social issues. Some other prominent African cardinals are Cardinal Robert Sarah (Guinea) and Cardinal Philippe Nakellentuba Ouedraogo (Burkina Faso).

Europe is not out of the picture either. Hungarian Cardinal Peter Erdo, respected and deeply rooted in Catholic tradition, could emerge as a compromise candidate. Germany's Cardinal Reinhard Marx, a reformer with scars from the Church's abuse scandals, remains a possibility, though less likely. And what about the Americas? Chicago-born Cardinal Robert Prevost, with his Latin American ties, could be a dark horse.

The Papacy And Christianity

For nearly two millennia, the election for the holiest of Catholic posts has followed traditions that are often awe-inspiring, at times extremely time-consuming, and mostly labyrinthine. Cardinals, the Church's senior-most clergy, gather in a locked conclave to elect the pontiff. Locking the electors is an ancient tradition, one that is believed to prevent external influence. In medieval times, the authorities occasionally imposed restrictions on food and wine on cardinals to hasten a decision. Tradition has it that on one occasion, impatient Romans tore the roof off the election hall to pressure them into choosing a Pope as the cardinals had not come to a decision even after three years of deliberation.

Today, the cardinals hail from every continent, but a disproportionate number still come from Europe. The tradition of cardinal appointments being Eurocentric stems from centuries when the Church was, above all, a European institution. But Catholicism has changed. More so in the last hundred years.
Dare I say that the Church's future increasingly lies in the Global South. Africa, Asia and Latin America are the living, breathing heart of modern Catholicism. Africa, in particular, has seen explosive growth in the number of Catholics, in vocations to the priesthood, and religious fervour. Some of the Church's most dynamic theological debates and social initiatives now emerge from places like Nigeria, Congo and Kenya, and not necessarily from Paris or Rome.

And yet, the papacy remains stubbornly White and Eurocentric. Most popes for the last 1,500 years have been European. Many historians note that the early Church had at least three North African Popes, when that part of the continent was under the Roman empire. They were not from deep inside the continent. Since then, the highest office has stayed firmly in the hands of men from Italy, Germany, Poland and Argentina (Pope Francis being the first from the Americas, but still of Italian descent).

An African Pope?

Many Catholics in Africa are asking whether the next Pope will be from their continent. This, increasingly, seems likely. Names like Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana or Cardinal Wilfrid Napier of South Africa have featured in papal speculation for years. Pope Francis himself has sought to diversify the College of Cardinals, appointing many from non-traditional regions and famously warning against a Church that "becomes too European". The next conclave will almost certainly see African and Asian cardinals wielding greater influence than ever before.

Yet, the question is not simply demographic. It's theological and cultural. The Western media's easy framing of a "conservative" Global South versus a "progressive" North oversimplifies things. African Catholicism is often deeply traditional in theology, valuing life, family and doctrinal orthodoxy, while simultaneously dynamic and socially radical in confronting poverty, injustice and corruption. A Black Pope would not necessarily be a political radical or a progressive hero for Western audiences. He could be a complex figure, steeped in ancient tradition, fiercely independent of European assumptions and carrying the weight of a burgeoning, youthful, non-Western Church.

The political symbolism, however, would be seismic. In a world where race still structures so much public life, the election of a Black Pope would send shockwaves - both within the Church and far beyond. It would underline Catholicism's universality in ways no document or sermon ever could.

Of course, tradition and history still exert enormous gravitational pull. The conclave, while moved by the Holy Spirit according to Catholic belief, is also moved by human relationships, regional alliances and long-standing mentalities. Many cardinals may hesitate before making such a radical leap. And the unspoken bias towards a European, or at least a Mediterranean, figure may yet reassert itself.

Still, as Conclave beautifully captures, the papal election is not just about continuity - it's about moments of profound change. The cardinals, gathered beneath Michelangelo's frescoes in the Sistine Chapel, are not merely voting for a man. They are voting for a direction, a future.

In Conclave, Harris creates a high level of suspense and drama around Cardinal Lomeli, the ageing but honourable Dean of the College of Cardinals. Among those vying for the keys of St Peter are Cardinal Tedesco, the ironclad traditionalist, Cardinal Tremblay, the calculating North American moderniser, and Cardinal Adeyemi, the African contender whose progressive views stir both hope and unease.

Twist In The Tale?

In real life, too, there are a couple of hot favourites. But in the Papal election, every candidate remembers the famous Roman adage, "He who enters the conclave a pope, leaves it a cardinal." All candidates must be acutely aware of that, for, in this ancient dance of power, visibility is risky and open campaigning could be fatal. Like in Conclave, the real twist comes with the arrival of Vincent Benítez, who is a cardinal in pectore (a cardinal secretly appointed by the Pope, whose name is kept hidden for their safety or political reasons). His emergence electrifies the Sistine Chapel, tilting alliances and unleashing a power struggle that no one, least of all Lomeli, could have foreseen. In the end, they elect Benítez and say, "We have a Pope".

Who knows if Pope Francis has chosen a cardinal in pectore. Could he be from Africa? 

(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with the Western media)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author