With yesterday's Rajya Sabha wins across the country, the BJP will now be the single-largest party in the Upper House and hopeful of more parliamentary business being transacted. But the key takeaway from UP remains what Satish Mishra, key Mayawati aide, said post the results being announced: "BJP proved that it is an anti-Dalit party, it prevented Bhim Rao Ambedkar from entering the Rajya Sabha by using money and muscle power. The BSP, SP and Congress alliance delivered".
So the tenuous alliance between the two regional heavyweights, which Shah and Yogi Adityanath correctly sense the danger of, remains intact. Instead of gloating over their hotly-contested victory last night, Adityanath publicity warned Mayawati about the "treachery" of the SP and how "Yadav could never transfer votes to her". Touching concern for a bitter rival, you might say, but also revelatory of the BJP's persistent migraine about the opposition alliance cutting in to UP's 80 seats and impeding the BJP's smooth return to Delhi. Last time around, the BJP managed 73 of the 80 seats in the state and Shah and Yogi are desperate for a re-run.

Mayawati's party BSP supported Akhilesh Yadav's SP in the Uttar Pradesh Lok Sabha by-elections
Yogi's warning to Mayawati was echoed by on-cue moaning from embedded analysts who claimed that Mayawati was "upset" that while her vote bank was transferable (in helping Akhilesh Yadav to win the Gorakhpur election, for example), he was not able to return the favour for her in the Rajya Sabha election. The BJP's social media army was trending hashtags all of last night to drive a wedge between the alliance partners.
However, the reality is that the SP and Congress did manage to transfer all their second preference votes to Mayawati. She was let down by her own legislator, Anil Singh, who cross- voted, and the fact that her jailed legislator Mukhtar Ansari and SP's Hari Om Yadav could not vote. Further, Nitin Agrawal, an SP lawmaker whose father Naresh just defected to the BJP, voted for the BJP candidate. Mayawati's old enemy, don Raja Bhaiyya who she had jailed in 2003, kept his word to Yadav and voted for the SP but not the BSP. After voting, he also made a "courtesy call" to fellow Thakur Adityanath, reiterating the primacy of caste politics in UP.

Mayawati's old enemy, don Raja Bhaiyya who she had jailed in 2003, kept his word to Akhilesh Yadav and voted for the SP
The Congress perhaps surprised even itself with its deft management in Karnataka, Jharkhand, Bihar and UP and kept its flock together. No Congress MLA cross-voted despite many attempts at poaching, surely an indicator of the way the political wind is blowing. All three Congress candidates won in Karnataka where it got seven opposition members to cross vote for it.
Shah knows that he demonstrated agile politics in snatching one extra Rajya Sabha seat in UP but it cannot be compared to the Gorakhpur debacle where the alliance showcased a strong political message. The fact that the BJP lost the parliamentary constituencies of Adityanath and his deputy, Keshav Prasad Maurya, is not lost on the UP electorate which still delights in political strongmen.
The political score at half time is one all for Bua-Bhatija and the BJP. Look for things to get ugly.
(Swati Chaturvedi is an author and a journalist who has worked with The Indian Express, The Statesman and The Hindustan Times.)
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