Union Home Minister Amit Shah's arrival in Chandigarh as the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) central "observer" is anything but an ordinary move. In Haryana to gauge the views of newly elected legislators ahead of the formal election of the legislature party, Shah is the de facto Number Two in the Modi government and the guiding force behind the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) organisational affairs. His word, second only to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's, is considered final and binding.
For those closely following the BJP, it's hard to recall the last time Shah was appointed as an observer for a state, if ever. This raises questions about why the party chose to appoint someone of his stature for this occasion, which typically follows a scripted process.
Saini To Continue?
In the run-up to the Haryana assembly polls, senior party leaders made it clear that the election was fought under the leadership of incumbent Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini, who was expected to lead the new government. Following the poll results, Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with Saini, and there appears to be no visible dissent within the party regarding his continued leadership.
Let's analyse why the party and Shah may have chosen to be in Chandigarh with the newly elected MLAs as they prepare for the swearing-in. We should also consider the significance of October 17, the potential date for the swearing-in ceremony, and why this date carries considerable importance in terms of broader messaging.
First, Shah's visit aims to consolidate and capitalise on the gains made in Haryana and to chart a course for the future. His presence in Chandigarh will likely have a unifying effect on the party's rank and file, minimising any potential for individual aspirations or dissent. So far, indications suggest that Saini, the incumbent chief minister and a rising OBC face of the organisation, will be chosen to lead the new government. Interestingly, the party has appointed another OBC leader, Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Mohan Yadav, as an additional observer to assist Shah.
Preparing For Maharashtra And Jharkhand
Second, Shah is expected to not only address issues related to government and cabinet formation but also to prioritise the governance agenda. The party leadership would like the new Haryana government to implement a few impactful initiatives quickly, which could serve as talking points in the upcoming poll campaigns in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.
Third, the recent victory in the Haryana polls was significant for the BJP, marking the first time any political party has won elections in Haryana for three consecutive terms. The results reflect the BJP's resilience and determination, especially given that many, including the media, pollsters, and various social and political groups, had written the BJP off. The results also debunked the Congress narrative that the election was focused on "Kisan, Pahalwan, and Jawan" (farmers, wrestlers and soldiers) as the BJP won across the state, including in Jat-dominated areas, with seven Jat candidates securing victory. This counters the opposition narrative that PM Modi's popularity was waning. Shah's presence signals to party members and the public how much the BJP leadership values this mandate.
Counting On Support From Dalits
Fourth, the significance of October 17, the possible date for the new government's inauguration, cannot be understated. Since the Dalit factor played a crucial role in the BJP's historic victory in Haryana, it's important for the party to further consolidate its base among other marginalised communities. While it may seem symbolic, optics and symbolism are essential in politics for shaping perception. October 17 is Balmiki Jayanti, a declared holiday in the state. Maharishi Balmiki, the author of the ancient Ramayana, is a revered figure in the Dalit community, regarded as a god by its members. In December 2023, the Modi government named the newly built airport in Ayodhya the Maharishi Balmiki International Airport.
Shah's respect for Maharishi Balmiki and his message of 'Samrasta' (harmony) is not new either. In May 2016, as BJP President, he attended the Simhastha Kumbh in Ujjain, where he made headlines by taking a holy dip at the "Balmiki Dham" ghat, slightly away from the main ghats frequented by most pilgrims. However, an intriguing part of this visit was Shah and Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan coordinating to invite prominent religious leaders from across the country to Balmiki Ghat to engage with Dalit religious heads. This gesture aimed to convey a message of cultural unity, emphasising that Dalits are an integral part of the Hindu community.
The strategy helped the BJP enhance its Dalit support. With a sizeable number of people from the community voting for the BJP, the party swept the 2017 assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh. Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) Chief Mohan Bhagwat, during his Vijayadashmi address, highlighted the literary and cultural icons of the Dalit community, urging everyone to collectively celebrate Valmiki Jayanti and Ravidas Jayanti.
With Maharashtra, which has a sizable Dalit population, set to go to the polls next month, the BJP likely hopes to convey a positive message for the community from Haryana to Jharkhand.
(The author is Consulting Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author