Congress Alliance Isn't Doing Akhilesh Yadav Big Favours

Ajit Singh and his Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) may have been scorned by Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi and abruptly ejected out of the gathbandan (alliance), but in Western Uttar Pradesh, the Jats, aggrieved with the BJP, are relocating their support. Khap after Khap is saying that we made a mistake in 2014 and let's get back to our roots, which implies a renewed allegiance to the RLD as a Jat party. Mayawati has traditionally done well in this part of the state too - she didn't win a single seat here in 2014 (she pulled a 20% vote share across the state), but in the last state election, she won 29 seats here; this time around, her main rival seems to be Ajit Singh.

The Jats form 17% of the population here and their back-to-RLD stance is a huge worry for Amit Shah, BJP President. A strong Ajit Singh could shake his already crumbling fortress of upper caste polarisation. Senior BJP leaders say that Ajit Singh, a maverick who has party-hopped his way across the political spectrum before founding the RLD in 1998, may be amenable to a deal with Shah after the election. But for now, the double threat of Mayawati and Ajit Singh in Western UP is not being taken lightly.

The BJP's 2014 sweep - it won all of Western UP's 10 parliamentary seats, hugely enabled by the Jats switching from Ajit Singh to the BJP, not least because of the fabled Modi wave.
 Despite being shoved aside by voters, Ajit Singh, buoyed by the returning Jat loyalty - is a tough bargainer - he wanted 40 of the state's 403 seats to join the Akhilesh Yadav-Congress alliance. Akhilesh Yadav told the Congress if it wanted, it could give him that from its portion of about 100 seats. The deal collapsed.

While Amit Shah has been doing deals and engineering defections from parties, bringing Ajit Singh to the negotiating table is a tough ask. So the BJP chief will wait for the result, and then decide whether to make a big play for the RLD. Much of that will also depend on how well Mayawati performs - remember her core Jatav Dalit base is located here.

Meanwhile, contrary to the rosy picture being painted by Akhilesh Yadav, his own campaign is not without large creases.
 He was late to get started because of his big family fight; Mayawati and the BJP, in contrast, are in top gear. Another crisis for Akhilesh has been delivered by ever-obliging uncle Shivpal Yadav, who is excelling at the part of the classic UP vote katua (vote-cutter), as they are called in the Hindi heartland. In the Yadav family stronghold of Etawah, he has set up his own people as independent candidates against the Samajwadi Party as he has an excellent relationship with Amit Shah (brokered by Amar Singh); others chosen by him are running as BSP candidates.

Which is why Shivpal Yadav, while contesting on a Samajwadi ticket, has declared his intent of starting his own party after March 11. A candidate from Etwah, running as an independent but funded entirely by Shivpal Yadav, said "He has toiled with Netaji (Mulayam Singh) here on a cycle for years. He has faced so much for all of us. And Akhilesh who does not know the zameen (lay of the land) just wants to discard him. Why? Is it criminal to help your own clan?"

This is the dilemma that Akhilesh Yadav faces. While winning the rights to the party's name and cycle symbol was a huge boost, and the young urban constituency is attracted to his claim of "Kaam bolta hai" (our work speaks for us) and his purging the party of some criminals, rural Yadavs are confused. They see Mulayam Singh and Shivpal as leaders who have empowered them. Also keep in mind that a little lawlessness is not frowned upon in Yadav hinterland. Shivpal is looked up to here as a dabang (strong fighter), the ultimate accolade in UP politics, and many in the area say that they are hurt that the young chora (lad) is sidelining his elders, (even with) warts and all.
 The lack of synergy between the Congress and the Samajwadi Party on the ground is also a major uh-oh for Akhilesh Yadav. His workers don't like the alliance and make no bones about it. As for the Congress, it barely exists on the ground. While Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav may have great chemistry, this has not percolated down to the ground, with SP cadre chafing at the seats conceded to the Congress. The SP claimants for the 100-plus seats given to the Congress are particularly rebellious and trying their best to be mini-Shivpals. While Akhilesh Yadav contends with all these problems and ensures that father Mulayam Singh is kept placated at all times, wife Dimple Yadav and favourite uncle Ram Gopal Yadav are running the party's headquarter in Lucknow.

The BJP, which has the best organization and war room, has now changed the complexion of its campaign with new posters asking voters to come together and strategically repositioning Modi so that he is not singled out for the outcome if the party foes win. Amit Shah, who presides over the huge high-technology war room in Lucknow, is also keeping a close watch on Mumbai for the richest municipal election in Asia. Sources say he is in touch with veteran Congress leader Gurudas Kamat, who is upset with the ascendance of Mumbai Congress chief Sanjay Nirupam, and that Shah wants to induct him into the BJP. Also displaying a keen interest in joining the BJP is Amar Singh, who reportedly now wants in. Party sources say whether that will happen is likely to be decided after the election when Shah will decide whether acquiring him could help the BJP in UP.

(Swati Chaturvedi is an author and a journalist who has worked with The Indian Express, The Statesman and The Hindustan Times.)

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