Analysis: Amid NDA Moves, How BJP Is Faring With Southern Parties

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) meeting has created a buzz in political parties, both North and South of the Vindhyas. The invite has gone to 30 NDA constituents, including six new ones, keeping the next general election in mind. The names of some new allies and a few former ones are floating around.

In the past few weeks, new and old allies have made a beeline to the NDA. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) faction led by Ajit Pawar and Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena are the NDA's biggest acquisitions.

In Bihar, Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), and the Hindustani Awam Morcha Secular (HAM-S) have joined the NDA after party founder Jitan Ram Manjhi and party president Santosh Kumar Suman's meeting with Union Home Minister Amit Shah. In Uttar Pradesh, Om Prakash Rajbhar's SBSP (Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party) is on board. The SBSP was an ally of the Samajwadi Party during the 2022 Uttar Pradesh polls.

Of course, in Odisha, the BJP has already banked on direct or tacit support from Chief Minister Navin Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal. Until now, its support has always been tacit; the need for open support never rose for either side.

The political permutations in the South are equally interesting. The NDA is scouting for partners, many of whom are open to joining the alliance but taking a cautious approach.

In Karnataka, the biggest regional party, the Janata Dal (Secular), seems open to joining the NDA. Party leaders HD Deve Gowda and his son HD Kumaraswamy have made it amply clear by not attending the Congress-led Opposition meeting in Bengaluru on July 17 and 18. Former Karnataka Chief Minister and BJP leader Basavaraj Bommai has indicated that the BJP and Janata Dal (Secular) are exploring the possibility of an alliance for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Kumaraswamy's latest statement on the subject also shows that he is open to it. The JD(S) has specified in no uncertain terms that it will never align with the Congress, with which it ran a short-lived coalition government in Karnataka in 2018-2019.

The BJP has maintained a studied silence about its probable alliance options in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. From Andhra Pradesh, Jana Sena Party (JSP) president, Pawan Kalyan, is part of the NDA meeting. A few months ago, Pawan Kalyan had held meetings with Telugu Desam Party President N Chandrababu Naidu to discuss common strategies against the YSR Congress Party's rule in Andhra Pradesh. Not much came out of those meetings. The BJP has had a good working relationship with the YSR Congress and Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy till now. With the JSP joining the NDA alliance, equations may change.

The Telugu Desam Party and Shiromani Akali Dal are among the key parties missing from the NDA list. Despite multiple discussions, the BJP has been unable to win back its former allies, for now. However, in politics, nothing can be ruled out forever and as the elections approach, the two parties may well warm up to the BJP.

From Tamil Nadu, BJP has officially invited Edappadi K Palaniswami of the AIADMK, its main ally in southern India, for the great huddle. O Panneerselvam (OPS), who earlier led the party, was expelled from AIADMK last year, and hasn't been invited to the meet.

The AIADMK, weakened by inter-party factionalism and cornered by its sworn enemy, the ruling DMK (Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam), needs friends at the Centre. The BJP and AIADMK have had strained relations over the politics surrounding the Sengol or the ceremonial sceptre that was the centrepiece of the opening of the new parliament building by PM Modi. The act was interpreted as the BJP's political outreach to Tamil Nadu in the run-up to the elections. The AIADMK took it as an intrusion into its territory. The differences have been ironed out - in Tamil Nadu, the NDA will be led by the AIADMK, and in Delhi, it will remain a BJP-led alliance. They need each other to counter the DMK.

Leaders from the Paatali Makkal Katchi (PMK) and Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) are also part of the alliance meeting. The PMK, which is the political arm of the powerful Vanniyar community, however, opposes the Uniform Civil Code strongly pushed by the BJP. Tamil Nadu has 39 Lok Sabha seats, with one seat in Puducherry. The DMK coalition swept the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, winning 38 seats. The AIADMK won just one seat, which was the sole win for the alliance.  

In order to win a record third term, the BJP needs to forge new alliances and win seats from new areas, besides holding on to most of the existing ones. It is also making efforts to shed the impression that the party doesn't value its allies enough. 

The BJP also doesn't seem to be very uncertain about the prospects in the assembly elections due in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Telangana months before the Lok Sabha polls. If the state election results go against the BJP, it will leave the party very little time to recoup. Thus, what is already apparent is that the BJP leadership is not leaving it till the eleventh hour. We can expect the ruling party to counter each and every opposition move, while also seeking to strengthen itself electorally. The offensive is two-pronged: 1) launch a multi-pronged attack to psychologically and substantively counter every single move of the opposition; and 2) Identify areas of own weaknesses and undertake quick repair jobs. Often the two strategies are interlinked and one solution could be like a double-edged weapon.

(Bharti Mishra Nath is a senior journalist)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author