Opinion | Arvind Kejriwal Is Going For Broke

A dramatic announcement by Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal on Sunday, in which he declared he would step down from office, has sent shockwaves through national capital politics. In one bold move, the Convenor of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) sought to elevate his moral standing and diminish the opposition's momentum.

Since Kejriwal's incarceration in Delhi's Tihar Jail on charges related to the excise policy case, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been vociferously demanding his resignation. The Chief Minister, known for his crusade against corruption in public office, could no longer ignore the growing discontent among his constituents. Despite his earlier decision to remain in office even after his arrest, maintaining the status quo was becoming increasingly untenable.

Civic Woes Were Mounting

Residents of the capital began to experience a lack of governance, particularly during the recent monsoon deluge when civic issues mounted. As the AAP controls the municipality, it could no longer attribute the city's woes solely to the BJP. The only exception was the NDMC area, which is under BJP control. Citizens expect timely redress and quality service in a city that prides itself on being the nation's capital.

Circumstances likely forced Kejriwal's hand. In his announcement to step down in the coming days, the AAP convenor vowed to fight to prove his innocence in the "people's court", likening it to an 'Agnipariksha' (trial by fire). He has effectively thrown the decision back to the electorate of Delhi, who have supported him and his party for the past 11 years. Will this strategy work this time too?

The Supreme Court's restrictions on Kejriwal mean he cannot attend his office or sign files in his official capacity, rendering him a lame-duck Chief Minister. This uncertainty and lack of governance structure could prompt the Centre to intervene. The AAP has already had multiple run-ins with the Lieutenant Governor, and Kejriwal has claimed that numerous amendments by the Centre have restricted the functioning of the AAP government. His resignation will likely prevent the city from coming under President's Rule.

Kejriwal Is Placing A Big Bet

Secondly, the electorate's track record in judging the political future can be unpredictable. While Vishwanath Pratap Singh's anti-corruption campaign around the Bofors deal led to the ousting of Rajiv Gandhi and the Congress, similar anti-corruption narratives have not always translated into electoral victories elsewhere. Kejriwal is now putting his reputation on the line, seeking endorsement from the people.

Thirdly, Kejriwal's move could be part of a strategic calculation to re-establish the AAP's dominance in Delhi, which is central to its political identity. Delhi was where his anti-corruption movement began and subsequently led to the formation of the AAP. After realising its limitations in 2014, the party saw significant success in Punjab in 2014 and again in 2022.

Finally, Kejriwal's announcement has taken the opposition by surprise. The BJP, the main contender, lacks a clear face to challenge Kejriwal, while the Congress, now a minor player in the capital, might put forward one of its senior local leaders as an alternative. The political course over the next few weeks will determine the path forward, including whether early elections will be held in November, as suggested by Kejriwal, or in February next year.

"Who will be the next Chief Minister?" This is the most anticipated question. Possible replacements include party colleagues such as Ministers Gopal Rai, Atishi, Saurabh Bhardwaj, or Speaker Ram Niwas Goel. There is also speculation that Kejriwal might consider installing his wife, Sunita. Any decision will need careful consideration to avoid further damaging the image of the AAP and its leaders.

(K.V. Prasad is a senior Delhi-based journalist)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author