An Indian response to the provocation by Bangladesh's Chief Adviser, Mohammed Yunus, was inevitable. While on a visit to China, Yunus had called India's Northeast 'landlocked'. The remark by Yunus alluded to the perception of Bangladesh being the guardian of access to the Indian Northeast through the sea routes as the land route ran through a constricted corridor. Yunus suggested that this geographical positioning presents significant opportunities for China, proposing that Bangladesh could serve as an extension of the Chinese economy by facilitating production and trade activities aimed at both China and global markets.
No Let-Up In Tensions
The Indian response and the actual interpretation of what Yunus said and meant are important issues in the emerging standoff between India and Bangladesh. Despite the one-on-one meeting at the BIMSTEC Summit in Bangkok, between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Adviser Mohammad Yunus, there appears no let-up in the rising tensions between the two countries. The Indian response has been to put an end to the June 2020 initiative, under which India allowed Bangladeshi export cargo to transit through Indian land customs stations enroute to third countries, via Indian ports and airports. The New Delhi airport is one such important outlet for Bangladesh. This arrangement facilitated smoother trade flows for Bangladesh's exports to nations such as Bhutan, Nepal, and Myanmar - in particular, to nations where goods moved by land routes.
On April 8, post the provocation by Yunus, India rescinded this facility, citing significant congestion at its airports and ports. This led to logistical delays and increased costs for Indian exporters. Internationally, this is being interpreted as a response to what Yunus said and meant. The negative effect on Bangladesh exports, especially after the 37% tariff also imposed by the US, will indeed be mind-boggling, thanks to the uncalled-for and unnecessary buccaneering by Yunus under Jamaat pressure. Yunus and the Jamaat leadership may be unaware of the fact that India has a major contribution to the growth of the garment industry in Bangladesh - as much as $1.20 billion worth of cotton yarn and raw cotton worth $556.84 million were exported by India to Bangladesh in 2023.
The Possible Chinese Airfield
India is also studying reports of a Chinese plan to build an airfield in Bangladesh's Lalmonirhat district, which is sure to be a challenge for New Delhi's security interests along the eastern border, including the Chicken's Neck area, that is, the Siliguri Corridor. The area, considered a strategic vulnerability for India, is a sliver of territory that provides access to all transportation and energy arteries to Northeast India, as well as a petroleum pipeline to Nepal. Several power grids crisscross the narrow territory. About 45-50 kilometres to the north is the strategic Chumbi Valley, separating the Indian state of Sikkim and Bhutan, where the famous (though some call it infamous) 'Trijunction' exists. Adjacent to it is Doklam, which every Indian by now probably knows about, thanks to the 72-day long standoff between Indian and Chinese forces in 2017.
So, is this to be an airfield to be occupied by the Bangladesh air force? Or, will the Chinese air force place its assets here under a strategic partnership agreement? If assets are deployed here for the dual purpose of maintaining an eye over the Bay of Bengal (much less likely) and posing a threat to India's interests, this will surpass arrangements that China has with even Pakistan, in PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan areas. So, at best, this must be seen as good psychological warfare to hem India in. Lalmonirhat is just 15 kilometres from the India-Bangladesh border. It won't be wrong to expect the Chinese air force to display an unprofessional approach towards defence and strategic cooperation with Bangladesh were it to place assets at such an airfield.
A Slew Of Pakistani Visits
Since the end of 2024, the Pakistan army has been making a beeline for Bangladesh. In January 2025, a high-level ISI delegation led by Major General Shahid Amir Afsar had visited Dhaka, marking one of the first significant engagements between the ISI and Bangladeshi officials in decades. The agenda probably focused on military and intelligence cooperation, including discussions on establishing an intelligence-sharing network between the two countries. The objective of that step does not need a second analysis. For the first time since 1971, the Pakistan army is set to train Bangladeshi military personnel. Starting
February 2025, training sessions were to be conducted in multiple cantonments across Bangladesh, beginning with the one in Mymensingh, all supervised by senior officers of the Pakistan Army.
The Bangladesh army views itself as professional, and second to none. Its leadership seeks to showcase itself in various UN missions and, often, overreaches itself in projection. Why such a force needs to bring in Pakistani training advisers is questionable. Can they be attempts at establishing intelligence bases? As I have always said, India left Bangladesh after defeating and evicting the Pakistan Army way back in January 1972, but Pakistan never left Bangladesh. It always maintained a shadowy presence there. Sheikh Hasina's government and Awami League cadres ensured that Pakistani Islamism remained under control. Her government also resisted former Pakistan President Zia ul Haq's infamous strategy of using Islamism to drive an anti-India circle around and within India. Now with Hasina gone and the Awami League itself under severe strain, the potential to revive the Zia plan seems bigger than ever before.
Demons At Every Corner?
A high-level delegation from Pakistan's Foreign Office is scheduled to visit Bangladesh this month, marking a significant step in revitalising bilateral ties, which have remained largely dormant for over a decade. Ishaq Dar, Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, is slated to visit Dhaka on April 22 at the invitation of Bangladesh's Foreign Affairs Adviser, Md Touhid Hossain. Similarly, Pakistan Foreign Secretary Amna Baloch is scheduled to arrive for a Foreign Secretary-level meeting on April 17. The visits can be seen as part of efforts to restore the old relationship.
Is India seeing demons at every corner, and are Indian analysts giving Pakistan and Bangladesh more than what their strategic worth merits? These are relevant questions in the face of an obvious attempt by a non-strategically-inclined Chief Advisor to directly target India. The entire controversy about the 'landlocked' nature of Northeast India was an obvious red herring. That it was made despite full knowledge of a much sought-after meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi a week later points to deliberate instigation.
The last of the Pakistan-Bangladesh shenanigans is yet to unfold even as there is a growing impatience in India about the intransigence on display. So far, the Indian response has invariably been measured and effective. This is the approach that usually wins strategically perched awkward situations. The government needs appreciation for handling this well.
(The writer is a Member of the National Disaster Management Authority, Chancellor of the Central University of Kashmir, and Former GOC of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
