Opinion | Bangladesh Is Sitting On A Powder Keg

Relations between India and Bangladesh have continued to plummet ever since then-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina stepped down in August following weeks of protests led by student groups. When Nobel laureate and microfinance pioneer Muhammad Yunus was selected as the interim chief advisor of Bangladesh, the world had pinned high hopes on the country, which had been ravaged by months of bloody violence.

Contrary to expectations, communal forces have been given a free hand in Bangladesh, with minorities being killed, their houses, places of worship, and businesses attacked and destroyed. Bangladesh's interim government, instead of cracking down on extremists, has chosen to punish the minorities.

According to a report by the Bangladesh branch of the Berlin-based human rights group Transparency International, minorities have been targeted in more than 2,000 incidents of violence since Hasina was forced to flee the country.

The matter has reached the United Nations, and its human rights officials have expressed concern over the violations in the country.

India has expressed deep concern over the developments, as a diplomatic row between the two South Asian neighbours escalates.

Immediate Triggers

Arrests of monks and journalists, the desecration of the Indian flag at a university campus, and tough statements by advisers in the Yunus administration are further damaging bilateral relations.
The situation worsened recently after Bangladeshi authorities arrested Hindu monk Chinmoy Krishna Das, an ISKCON monk in Bangladesh, who had been leading protests, on charges of sedition.
On 30 November, a prominent Hindu journalist named Munni Saha was arrested by the police in Dhaka. After much outrage and on grounds of illness, she was released on bail.

Over the last few days, social media has been abuzz with pictures and videos allegedly showing children and adults in Bangladesh stamping on India's flag drawn on roads in educational institutions and public places. While this has naturally drawn criticism from enraged Indians, it has also raised questions. Why are people in Bangladesh showing their resentment towards India? Is it because we sympathise with the Awami League's Sheikh Hasina? Or is it the anger against Hindus? Or both?
“Post 5 August, there is an anti-Awami League and anti-India premise. Forces which have historically been against the creation of Bangladesh, against India and its involvement in Bangladesh, and against the Awami League are active in Bangladesh politics today,” says Sanjay Bhardwaj, Professor of South Asian Studies at the School of International Studies, JNU.

Minorities – Hindus, Buddhists, Christians, indigenous groups, etc. – in Bangladesh have never been safe; however, the ousting of the Hasina government has made them more vulnerable in the country.

Added to this, Yunus' caretaker government has been placating Islamic fundamentalist outfits since coming to power. Yunus inducted the deputy chief of the ultra-Islamist outfit Hefazat-e-Islam, AFM Khalid Hossain, as his adviser for religious affairs in the interim government.

“We are in a terrible situation since the fundamentalists have taken over power. Bangladesh is like Afghanistan and Syria now,” says a senior journalist from Bangladesh, on condition of anonymity, as his accreditation was cancelled and his website blocked since 7 August. The authorities have slapped a murder case against him.

“In my country nowadays, you cannot say anything against the government. Speaking in support of the Awami League is treated as fascism. Supporting India is treated as terrorism,” says the senior journalist. In fact, Yunus has dismissed the recent violence against the country's Hindu minorities as "exaggerated propaganda" with political motives aimed at destabilising the nation.

“Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) calls the shots in Bangladesh. JeI believes in the ideology or idea of Pakistan and wants to pursue their politics based on Islamic nationalism,” says Bhardwaj. “So, time and again, they have been Islamising Bangladesh and its polity since the split of 1971, against the ethos and values of India. They want to bring Bangladesh out of India's dependency culturally, socially, economically, and of course, politically,” he adds.

The Yunus regime has taken a series of anti-India decisions since taking over. The Dhaka High Court's recent decision to acquit BNP's acting chairperson Tarique Rahman, former minister Lutfozzaman Babar, and others in a 2004 grenade attack will also further damage Bangladesh's ties with India.
Rahman and Babar had collaborated to encourage anti-India insurgent groups from the northeast to operate from Bangladesh's soil.

On the economic front, Indo-Bangladesh trade had shifted from the traditional cotton and jute industries to infrastructure in recent years. Large-scale power plants in India, which exclusively supply power to Bangladesh, have been drawn into unnecessary review by the current establishment, much against the spirit of international trade.

World Can't Be a Mute Spectator

The vandalism of Hindu temples, the arrest of Hindu monks, and journalists on sedition charges are violations of international human rights law, and India is perfectly correct in airing its concerns about the violation of minority rights in Bangladesh.

The Western media, which is usually vocal about democratic regimes overthrown through anarchy, have been silent on Bangladesh, despite their well-known stance towards countries leaning towards radical Islam. Just yesterday, in the UK Parliament, British MPs Barry Gardiner and Priti Patel raised concerns over violence against Hindus in Bangladesh.

US President-elect Donald Trump's recent criticism of the ‘barbaric attack' on Hindus gives hope of a shift in US foreign policy, which may be on the horizon.

The Biden administration has been silent on the ongoing human rights violations in Bangladesh. Historically, India and the US have been on opposite sides since Bangladesh's liberation from Pakistan in 1971. The US has worked over the years to undermine the Awami League rule under PM Hasina.
“US Democrats, for their own reasons, don't like the Awami League, and they have also been working with the radicals. Now, Trump has strongly indicated concern about minority issues in Bangladesh,” says Bhardwaj.

“I'm still sceptical about how much personally he will intervene in this issue because the Pentagon and the deep state of America ultimately decide their policy towards Bangladesh,” he adds.
It is quite obvious that, with damaging India-Bangladesh bilateral relations, there has been simultaneous cosying up between Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Pakistan announced a new visa policy allowing citizens of Bangladesh to travel to Pakistan without paying a visa fee. On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly summit in New York in September, there was a meeting between Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Yunus on the need to ‘revitalise bilateral cooperation'. In October, Yunus' interim government scrapped the mandatory physical inspection of imports from Pakistan – a worry for India, as it could lead to the illegal supply of arms to militants in the northeast.

Also, in November, a cargo ship from Karachi docked at Chittagong port, marking the first-ever direct maritime contact between Pakistan and Bangladesh. This was described by the Pakistan High Commission in Dhaka as “a major step in bilateral trade.”

The situation in Bangladesh is volatile, and India will have to keep a close watch and react according to the unfolding, complicated crisis.

(The author is Contributing Editor, NDTV)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author