BJP Appears Set to Take Maharashtra

(Kumar Ketkar is a senior journalist, political commentator, globe trotter and author. He has covered all Indian elections since 1971 and significant international events. He is a frequent participant on TV debates.)

If the BJP, on its own, or with its four small allies, wins around 145 seats in the assembly election, as is being projected by some well-known pollsters, then it would be a tectonic transformation of the politics of Maharashtra. Though the discontent among the people was palpable for the last two years, nobody could have anticipated the 8-point Richter quake that polls are predicting.

Some polls have given the BJP fewer seats - between 90 and 110 of a total of 288 seats. The general consensus among the polling agencies and the media appears to be that the BJP will be the single-largest party. The nearest ideological partner is the Shiv Sena, because of their shared "Hindutva bond". But of late, the hostility between the BJP and Sena, once political spouses, has been intense. 

The Lok Sabha election apparently "proved" the popular theory that whoever registers such early leads in opinion polls just a week before voting, benefits from the so called "bandwagon" effect. So one can merely say that the probability of the BJP forming the government cannot be ruled out.

However, it is not merely a question of defeat of the ruling Congress Front. That has happened in the past. In 1995, the Shiv Sena-BJP Alliance came to power defeating Congress (the NCP had not been formed). The Prime Minister was Narsimha Rao and he had virtually handed over the state to Sharad Pawar. There was no Sonia Gandhi on the political horizon. Hence Chief Minister Pawar, Prime Minister Rao and the undivided Maharashtra Congress were on the same page.

Yet the party lost and Balasaheb Thackreay nominated Manohar Joshi to become Maharashtra's Chief Minister. The BJP, which used to play second fiddle to Shiv Sena, accepted the Deputy Chief Ministership. Nobody questioned the supremacy and seniority of the Shiv Sena.

There were circumstantial reasons for the defeat of the Congress. In 1992, the Babri Masjid was demolished by the Sangh Parivar and that generated such communal heat, that for the first time, Maharashtra experienced considerable polarization of votes. While the BJP leadership expressed remorse, the Sangh karya-kartas went to town with victory drums. Balasaheb publicly said that he was proud if the Sainiks had joined the demolition squad. In December 1992 and  the following January, Mumbai burnt following the destruction of Babri Mosque, as Muslims became the target. If that was Hindu vendetta against "Islam", then soon came a backlash. In March 1993, there were serial bomb blasts as a revenge, in Mumbai which later were linked with Dawood Ibrahim.

This was the violent and divisive backdrop of 1995, which brought the Hindu front to power. Since then the BJP and Sena distributed their responsibilities equitably. The BJP, with its sophisticated image and middle class-educated-white collar base, would work essentially to cultivate support in the urban region and the Shiv Sena would provide the muscle power of the Hindutva ideology. In "class" terms, the BJP and Sena were never united. The BJP used to often get embarrassed by the street vandalism of the Sainiks. But without the Sena, the BJP could not come to power.

That changed decisively after the BJP came to power in Delhi on its own under the leadership of Narendra Modi and the party decided  to  snap ties with the Shiv Sena.

Their relationship had been getting more and more uncomfortable, with the BJP making inroads even in rural areas. In the last few years, the hold of the Congress, and later the NCP, was weakening on  the cooperative sugar industry,  rural banks, the chain of educational institutions and farmers' associations. The farmers' associations had turned against the Congress-NCP government when the state could not bail out farmers and sugar factories, which had become chronically sick. The internecine rivalry and constant bickering between the Congress and NCP further dented their credibility among their support base.

In fact, the split in the Congress-NCP front was only the formalization of a broken marriage. As a result, the fight in this election is mainly between the BJP and Sena. The Congress and the NCP have been driven to the margins. The reason the BJP has become the main force within the saffron front is because Narendra Modi has established his unchallenged leadership in the party and in the central government. The Shiv Sena, without the charismatic Balasaheb, looks sort of orphaned.

The tectonic shift in Maharashtra is also because the Congress plates under the earth have begun to move!

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. NDTV is not responsible for the accuracy, completeness, suitability, or validity of any information on this article. All information is provided on an as-is basis. The information, facts or opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of NDTV and NDTV does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.