It was only five months ago that an adverse voting pattern in two states, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, during the parliamentary polls prevented the BJP from returning to power at the Centre for a third consecutive term with a majority of its own.
The BJP leadership made prompt course corrections, rebooted the system, took a fresh stance, and reenergized its rank and file. The results are there for everyone to see. Last month, the party defied pollsters, psephologists, and analysts in Haryana, where it returned to power for a third term with a larger majority than before.
A similar story unfolded on Saturday. The BJP-led Mahayuti, along with the Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde group) and the NCP (Ajit Pawar group), swept the polls in Maharashtra - something the state hadn't seen in decades. Pollsters of all stripes had predicted a very close election, claiming it was a seat-by-seat contest and that voters were not focused on the bigger picture but rather on their individual candidates. It is also important to note that in another prestige battle - nine assembly by-polls in Uttar Pradesh - the BJP scored handsomely.
The results clearly showed that Maharashtra saw a one-way wave election, driven by the credibility of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the performance of Eknath Shinde, Devendra Fadnavis, and Ajit Pawar on the larger picture.
People in the state were convinced by Modi's campaign and his slogan, "Ek Hain Toh Safe Hain." Though the slogan didn't resonate the same way in Jharkhand, that can be attributed to other factors.
The slogan was open to multiple interpretations. The more it was discussed - especially by the Maha Vikas Aghadi parties (Congress, Shiv Sena UBT, and NCP SP), as well as left-liberals and Muslim leaders who criticized it - the more it benefited the BJP. Coupled with this were developmental initiatives and social welfare schemes, particularly the Ladli Bahna Yojna, which gave a huge sense of empowerment to women.
Gone was the discontent that sections of voters showed toward the BJP in the parliamentary elections. This time around, they showered love and affection on the party. The BJP delivered its best-ever performance, with a strike rate of around 90%. It contested 149 seats and was leading in 130 at the time of writing. There were also some BJP leaders who contested on the Shiv Sena and NCP symbols.
The BJP succeeded in building a broad-based coalition, uniting Marathas, non-Marathas, OBCs, and Dalits to vote for the Mahayuti. The combined efforts of Fadnavis, Shinde, and Pawar in different social constituencies helped secure a phenomenal victory.
The Battle For The Sena And NCP Legacy Decisively Settled
The biggest loser in this election was Uddhav Thackeray. Shiv Sena UBT leaders were so complacent and smug that, until hours before the counting trends indicated the Mahayuti's return to power, they were demanding the chief minister's position for Uddhav Thackeray. Their complete U-turn from party founder Bal Thackeray's ideology and political philosophy was seen by many as a betrayal of the late Thackeray by his son and grandson in their pursuit of the chief minister's post.
In this election, the people settled the battle for Bal Thackeray's legacy in favour of Eknath Shinde - an outsider to the family but a die-hard loyalist of the founder's ideology. Shinde's faction of Shiv Sena was leading in 55 seats, compared to Uddhav Thackeray's faction, which was leading in only 20 seats.
Similarly, the NCP's legacy was settled in favour of Ajit Pawar. His uncle, the political strategist Sharad Pawar, didn't perform as expected. Ajit Pawar's NCP was leading in 40 seats, while Sharad Pawar's NCP was leading in just 12 seats. The total vote share of the Mahayuti coalition exceeded 50%.
Congress's Loss
The Congress, which contested the maximum number of seats in the Maha Vikas Aghadi and, until a day ago, was demanding the chief minister's position for itself, was leading in only 18 of the 147 seats it contested. In the last assembly election, the Congress had won 44 seats. In Jharkhand, playing second fiddle to the JMM, the Congress barely managed to stay close to its previous election tally. The party had performed poorly in last month's elections in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir, but failed to learn any lessons from that. Party leaders focused more on Priyanka Gandhi's campaign in the Wayanad parliamentary by-election. Rahul Gandhi's anti-business, anti-industry, and anti-development rhetoric was rejected by the people. As someone aptly said, the Congress under Rahul Gandhi has mastered the art of losing.
(The author is Consulting Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
