(Kumar Ketkar is a senior journalist, political commentator, globe trotter and author. He has covered all Indian elections since 1971 and significant international events. He is a frequent participant on TV debates.)Within just 48 hours of the publication of the "Mood of the Nation Poll", which observed that the Modi Magic is continuing to mesmerize people and will sweep another election if it is held today, came a shocker. The "Mood Poll" was conducted by the Hansa Research Agency for the India Today Group. Their opinion poll before the Lok Sabha election had predicted the trend and "mood" correctly, notwithstanding some minor variations in numbers in different states. The latest "mood" poll noted that Narendra Modi has his finger on the nation's pulse and his appeal has widened in all sections of society.
If that was the national mood, the BJP would have swept all the 18 assembly by-elections held in four different states-in Bihar, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka. But the BJP lost 10 of these 18 seats. It's likely that the most disturbing shock to the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo was in Bihar where the BJP lost 6 out of 10 seats. The BJP-led combine had won 31 of Bihar's 40 Lok Sabha seats. That was indeed a stunning victory which at one fell stroke devastated Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar and of course the Congress. If that was the trend, or if it was further strengthened, then the BJP should have won all 10 or at least eight seats in Bihar.
Last month, the Congress won all three assembly by-elections in Uttarakhand. In this round, the BJP lost two of three seats in Karnataka, and the one seat which they won was by a very small margin. That was the seat of the redoubtable BS Yeddyurappa's son Raghavendra. In fact, Yeddyurappa promptly made a statement that it was hardly a victory and the party must introspect. In Punjab, the Congress retained Patiala though it lost Talwandi Sabo to the Akalis, and in Madhya Pradesh, it wrested Bahoriband from the BJP.
It can be argued that this by-election round was not a referendum on the 90-day rule by Modi. But just suppose that all the 18 seats or even 14 of these had gone the BJP way, how the media would have headlined the victory! Even if the BJP wins a single by-election, it is regarded as the forward march of Modi and evidence of a wave.
These results may not necessarily manifest in the four assembly elections scheduled in next two months. That is not the issue. The only issue is there is a big difference between "consent" and "manufactured consent" to quote Noam Chomskey. Today's media, particularly social media, is so vulnerable to the technology of political control that it is not easy to distinguish what is "manufactured" and what is "natural". Therefore, the Congress or other anti-BJP parties must not take for granted that the Modi wave will recede further, just as the BJP leaders must not place too much trust on the "national mood" polls. As stated earlier in a blog on NDTV.com, Modi's real "enemies" are within the Sangh Parivar and in fact, he is his own worst enemy.
The aggressive and over-confident BJP president Amit Shah is expected to unleash the saffron juggernaut in all the four states that vote soon. He has dismissed the by-elections as of no consequence. But the local BJP units in Bihar have begun to feel the heat. Even in Maharashtra, where the BJP had begun to threaten Shiv Sena with breaking their alliance, the mood has changed. Modi and Shah wanted cent percent (shat-Pratisht) BJP victory and hence were thinking of contesting all 288 assembly seats in Maharashtra. That strategy has backfired now.
So one cannot say that the by-election round was of no consequence. It has forced a change in the tactics of the BJP as well as the tactics of its allies. Ironically, it is not clear whether the Congress has learnt any lessons from the Lok Sabha disaster and the by-election bonanza!
Local Congress leadership continues to be demoralized, directionless and despondent. On the other hand, the BJP is saddled with a misplaced arrogance ignoring that its big victory was managed with just 31% of the national vote share.
Both sides need enlightenment.
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