And We Just Got A Whole Lot Closer To Congress-Mukt Bharat

With every passing election, the country comes closer to being "Congress-mukt Bharat" (an India free of Congress), although India's Grand Old Party seems oblivious to the shrinking space it occupies. 

In this round of elections, the Congress has lost two more states - Assam and Kerala. Karnataka now remains the only major (non-hill) state it governs. Even its seat-sharing with the CPI(M) in West Bengal, which many described as a "dubious compromise", yielded nothing; Mamata Banerjee has romped home with a massive mandate. 

The defeat of three-time winner Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi would be particularly galling to the party headquarters for it has paved the way for the BJP's entry into the North-East and endangered the Congress' prospect in its erstwhile fortress for the foreseeable future. Ever since elections began in India in 1952, the Congress has prided itself on being the country's only pan-India political organization. That claim has no legs to stand on any more. In fact, the BJP is the more credible pan-India party now.

The BJP may not have automatically replaced the Congress in every space that the latter has vacated, but powerful regional parties have made it difficult if not impossible for the Congress to regain ground. The party cannot jubilate that the AIADMK has retained power in Tamil Nadu against all odds and that the BJP is still not a player in that state. In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee's TMC, which was once in alliance with the Congress, has proved it needs nobody to retain power. Although Congress leaders are admitting that serious introspection is called for, that seems a far cry. When it was severely thrashed by a resurgent BJP under Narendra Modi and reduced to 44 seats in the Lok Sabha in 2014, the cry for introspection was heard loudly all around 24 Akbar Road - the Congress headquarters. But two years down the line, the party's position has only worsened and introspection has led to no visible gains. 

Increasingly, it is being said that the party cannot revive under its present leadership. But since the Congress has never looked beyond one family to provide leadership (barring the brief Narasimha Rao years), it is doubtful if the family will readily relinquish its iron grip.

Apart from the Congress' dwindling fortunes, what are the other takeaways from the election results? 

First, it reaffirms that anti-incumbency is no longer the game-decider. Both in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, two popular women Chief Ministers have held their ground even without resorting to gimmicks like prohibition. Incidentally, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar who believes prohibition is a game-changer should remember that nobody thought he would actually impose this draconian ban when he sought a mandate. Jayalalithaa and Mamata Banerjee have won fair and square on the back of their "connect" with the people and the pro-poor policies of their administrations.

In the run-up to the Bengal results, it was being widely speculated that even if Ms Banerjee returned to power, it would be with a significantly reduced majority on account of urban disaffection, rampant violence and the state's economic stagnation. None of these had an impact: She swept the urban seats, election violence was contained thanks to the Election Commission's eagle-eye, while no formula for economic renewal was offered by her. However, especially in the countryside, Ms Banerjee's credibility remained high thanks to her various policies aimed at helping the underprivileged sections. 

Arguably, the CPM's vast cadre base has switched over to the TMC and Ms Banerjee used this youth army by pandering to myriad "clubs" that mushroomed all over the state. Ostensibly aimed at promoting a culture of sportsmanship, these state-funded clubs distribute some kind of "unemployment allowance" to Bengal's humungous number of educated unemployed. Such doles are also offered to Muslim clerics in the name of Imam Batta in order to woo the state's sizeable minority population. For all the criticism these moves invited from sophisticated economists, they worked at election time. And those who spelt her doom, pointing to massive corruption in her party, especially ponzi schemes and televised graft, found voters to be unmoved by these factors. Her party won even the Jorasanko seat in Kolkata where an under-construction flyover collapsed just a few weeks back, killing over 26 persons. That the contractors mostly belonged to her party was subject was widespread media criticism, but that did not deter voters from again reposing their faith in her.

Similarly in Tamil Nadu, Jayalalithaa's handouts came by way of highly-subsidised food products and even "Amma" brand packaged water. Her manifesto this time contains a massive list of freebies including subvention schemes for women to purchase scooters. Apart from the fact that she has provided good governance, it is her sincerity in helping people during adversities like the recent Chennai floods that have won her the confidence of the electorate. 

Does this suggest that corruption has ceased to matter when it comes to people's voting behavior? The answer is Yes and No. In Kerala, for instance, the scam involving grant of liquor licences became a game-changer and felled the Oommen Chandy regime. It is not that people endorse prohibition - actually voting behavior across states suggests the contrary - but the discriminatory licensing policy which left the door wide open for corruption seems to have antagonised people much more than liquor itself.

The main lesson from the results is that the Congress is shrinking rapidly as a major national party. The last chance for its revival lies in Uttar Pradesh where elections are due next year. In Punjab, which also goes to the polls at the same time, the wild-card entry, namely Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party, may alter the state's traditional two-party scenario. But if strategist Prashant Kishor, who has done magic for those who hired his services in Gujarat and Bihar, can pull it off for his new employer - Rahul Gandhi - the Congress may live to fight another day. After the latest round of state elections, this seems rather remote indeed. 

The next lesson is there is no in-built anti-incumbency anymore in the public mind. If governments deliver what they promise, and the poor are benefited with basics such as subsidized food grain, potable water, electricity, LPG connections and other everyday needs for better living, they need not fear electoral rout. More than macro developments like highways and connectivity, it is everyday comforts that have begun to count. In this game, Ms Jayalalithaa has proved to be ahead of all.  

(Dr. Chandan Mitra is a journalist, currently Editor of The Pioneer Group of Publications. He is also BJP MP of the Rajya Sabha.)

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of NDTV and NDTV does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.