Opinion: Losing Top Lingayat Leaders May Cost BJP

The BJP is facing rebellion the selection of its candidates in Karnataka, where Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai is fighting history and odds. Former chief minister Jagadish Shettar and ex Deputy Chief Minister Laxman Savadi, both Lingayat leaders, have switched to the Congress. The Congress, usually at the receiving end of such high-profile exits, has something to cheer about, at last. 

This is bad optics for the BJP as both are senior leaders with a long association with the RSS. In an election in which the BJP is already fighting with its back to the wall, confronting anti-incumbency, corruption allegations and a spirited Congress, this is a setback, though the ruling party has downplayed the exits. If it is all about perception, it looks quite like leaders jumping off a sinking ship.

Both the leaders belong to the influential Lingayat community, which accounts for 14 to 17 per cent of the state's population and constitutes the BJP's core vote base. Karnataka has had eight chief ministers from the Lingayat community. In the 2018 Karnataka polls, 52 winning candidates belonged to the community. The BJP usually sets aside a fourth of its poll tickets for Lingayats.

The community influences the outcome in 70 of the state's 224 seats, mainly in North and Central Karnataka. The BJP won more than 50% of these seats in 2008 and 2018. The party's 2013 performance was marred by the exit of BS Yediyurappa, which split its votes and helped the Congress.

While the BJP claims the leaders who left are not mass leaders, the Congress is magnifying what it calls the "insult" to the Lingayat community. How much can this damage the BJP's prospects? While Jagadish Shettar claims he can sway votes in 20-25 seats, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge says the party may gain more seats and end up with more than 150, versus 135+ earlier.

Yediyurappa, the BJP's tallest Lingayat leader, is still firmly with the party. He was eased out of the chief minister's post in July 2021, but he was accommodated in the BJP's highest decision-making body, the parliamentary board. Basavaraj Bommai is considered his protégé, but all is not well between the two.

Yediyurappa and the BJP share a very peculiar and brittle relationship. While Yediyurappa has been pushing for his son as state BJP chief or Campaign Committee Chief, his requests have been ignored in a party that scorns dynasty politics. His son Vijayendra has been named a candidate from his traditional seat Shikaripura. The former chief minister's shadow fight with BJP General Secretary (Organisation) BL Santosh is no secret.

The Lingayats, along with Brahmins, are the only core voters of the BJP in Karnataka, with more than 50 per cent of the community backing it. Even a 2.5 per cent swing of Lingayat support from the BJP towards the Congress can result in a 1.5 to 2 per cent vote share gain for the Congress, which could be crucial in a tight contest. 

The Congress has been trying hard to regain the trust of the Lingayats after the damage done by Rajiv Gandhi's unceremonious sacking of then Chief Minister Veerendra Patil, a leader of the community, in 1990. When Rajiv Gandhi ordered Patil's removal from the airport, at a time he was under treatment after a stroke, the Congress ended up alienating the Lingayats for years.

Former chief minister Siddaramaiah announced separate religion status for Lingayats before the 2018 election, but it backfired. This time, the Congress has appointed Lingayat leader MB Patil as its campaign committee chief and hopes that the entry of two BJP exes will work in its favour.

While Jagadish Shettar and Laxman Savadi definitely do not enoy statewide influence, their exit can certainly impact the results in eight to 10 seats in and around their home constituencies of Hubli-Dharwad (Dharwad) and Athani (Belgaum).

Shettar has been a six-time MLA from Hubli-Dharwad while Savadi is a three-time MLA from Athani, though he lost the polls in 2018. BJP supporters predict these two will lose in their seats.

The "aaya ram gaya ram" politics is in full flow in Karnataka. How does the public react to such leaders? Are they seen as opportunists and ideologically bankrupt? Do these politicians succeed? Data analysed by the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) reveals that 52 per cent of the 433 MLAs and MPs who defected between 2016 and 2020 were able to retain their seats.

The BJP's reason for dropping Shettar and Savadi is to give a chance to fresh faces. However, here's a contradiction - old war horse Yediyurappa is still the face of its campaign. The BJP is playing the long game and preparing for life after Yediyurappa or other senior leaders in Karnataka. 

The ruling party is parallelly also attempting to shed its reliance on the Lingayat community and tighten the leadership's grip on the state unit. 

Can Shettar's exit prove costly for the BJP in this cracker of an election? We will know on May 13.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.