Opinion | Real Challenge In J&K And Haryana Polls Will Come From Local Issues

The announcement of poll schedules for the assembly elections in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir has generated considerable interest among voters and poll watchers alike. The Election Commission of India (ECI) has scheduled polling for the 90-member Jammu & Kashmir assembly in three phases: September 18, September 25, and October 1. In Haryana, voters will elect their 90 legislators on October 1, with results to be declared on October 4.

Unlike the Lok Sabha elections, where political parties struggled to present concrete national issues, Haryana's assembly elections are rife with local concerns. The Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) each secured five seats in the 2024 Parliamentary elections, but anti-incumbency, farmers' protests, the Agniveer scheme, minimum support price (MSP) issues, reductions in MGNREGA funds, wrestlers' agitation, and perceived lack of development during the decade-long BJP rule could shift the balance in the assembly elections. Politics in the state remains heavily influenced by Jat versus non-Jat dynamics.

BJP's Tough Road Ahead

Despite a change in leadership, incumbent Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini has struggled to restore the credibility lost during former Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar's tenure. During the BJP's first term (2014-19), the party governed independently. However, in its second term, it formed an alliance with the Jananayak Janata Party (JJP). But earlier this year, that alliance was dissolved, and this may affect Jat votes as the community traditionally supports the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the JJP.

Anti-BJP sentiments are likely to be amplified by non-political outfits such as the Samyukt Kisan Morcha and Kisan Mazdoor Morcha, which are leading the ongoing farmers' agitation. These groups plan to intensify their efforts with ‘Mahapanchayats' leading up to the October 1 polls.

The BJP cannot rely solely on the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. A strong local leadership and strategy to re-engage a disillusioned voter base will be crucial.

With the BJP facing anti-incumbency, the Congress's prospects appear promising. Senior Congress leader Kumari Selja has announced her candidacy for the upcoming assembly elections. A formidable leader and current Lok Sabha member from Sirsa, Selja's candidature may attract Dalit votes. Her entry into state politics will be interesting given her rivalry with her party colleague and leader of the opposition Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who draws Jat votes for the Congress. 

The INLD has formed an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which may consolidate Jat and Dalit votes. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has also decided to contest all seats. In the 2019 assembly elections, the BJP won 40 seats, the Congress 31, the JJP 10, and the INLD one.

There's another factor. Although wrestler Vinesh Phogat returned home without medals, the sympathy she generated among the masses was evident during her homecoming, with people lining the route to welcome and honour her. She was accompanied by Congress MP Deepender Hooda, and BJP member and former boxer Vijender Singh was also present. Names of other wrestlers—Sakshi Malik and Bajrang Punia—are being considered as potential Congress candidates.

J&K: Elections After A Decade

In Jammu & Kashmir, this will be the first assembly election since the abrogation of Article 370 and the state's transition to a Union Territory. In the last assembly elections held in 2014, the People's Democratic Party (PDP) won 28 seats, followed by the BJP with 25, the National Conference (NC) with 15, and Congress with nine. The PDP won all its seats in the Kashmir Valley, while the BJP won in Jammu. Later, in 2018, the latter withdrew support from the coalition government led by PDP leader Mehbooba Mufti.

Without elected representatives, concerns have arisen about the lack of a platform to address local issues.

In Jammu & Kashmir, separatism may not be a major electoral issue despite sporadic incidents of terrorism. Instead, issues such as unemployment, lack of development, corruption, and perceptions of local businesses being controlled by non-Kashmiris will be central to the contest. For the BJP, achieving power may be challenging, as the local population may blame the party for their problems.

Jammu & Kashmir also underwent a delimitation exercise in 2022, affecting the assembly polls. The total number of seats increased to 114, with 24 reserved for Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir. Of the remaining 90 seats, 43 are in the Jammu division and 47 in the Kashmir division. Before 2019, the Jammu & Kashmir assembly had 87 seats. The delimitation resulted in Jammu gaining six additional assembly seats, prompting the BJP to focus on consolidating votes in the region.

However, the recent granting of Scheduled Tribe (ST) status to the Paharis has created tensions with the Gujjars, who have traditionally supported the BJP. The attempt to win Pahari votes, many of whom reside in the Jammu region, may have alienated the Gujjars.

Critics and opposition parties argue that the BJP's delay in announcing elections is due to a weakening support base. Without the Supreme Court's deadline of September 30, elections might not have been scheduled.

The situation in Ladakh, an ecologically sensitive region, is similarly challenging. Recent agitation by activist Sonam Wangchuk and the support it has garnered in the region could pose additional problems for the BJP.

The Congress may seek alliances with parties like the NC and PDP to make an impact. Former Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad's Democratic Progressive Azad Party failed to attract significant voter support.

In the recent Lok Sabha polls, Awami Ittehad Party founder Engineer Rashid won the Baramulla constituency, defeating prominent figures like former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah and Sajjad Lone of the J&K Peoples' Conference. While it's too early to predict, Rashid's success might signal rising support for secessionist sentiments.

A regional party forming the government on October 4 could be a positive development for democracy, ideally keeping anti-India forces in check.

(Bharti Mishra Nath is Contributing Editor, NDTV)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author