Opinion: Can AAP Afford To Play Hard To Get?

Propagandists of the ruling party, some in the garb of journalists, started rubbishing the opposition unity meeting in Patna even before the leaders reached it. Now that the meeting is over, they are saying it is of no consequence. This betrays nervousness in the ruling camp. The BJP and its supporters must know well from experience that whenever the opposition has come together, it has led to either a substantial loss or a major defeat for the ruling party. Attempts to discredit and distort the unity move are hardly a surprise. I am certain this will intensify in the coming days as the moves gain more momentum and significance.

There will also be attempts to selectively target opposition leaders, tarnish their image, and dig out imaginary dirt to throw at them. They will be painted as corrupt, opportunistic, and good for nothing. The propagandists will have the 'clairvoyance' to imagine a world in which opposition leaders bitterly fight each other for petty gains; each painted as men or women without national character or national interests at heart, ready to collude with anti-national forces to grab power.

They will also push the narrative that only the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi have the vision to lead the country and the opposition will be apocalyptic for the nation.

The 2024 election will be more bitter and venomous than any that India has ever witnessed in the past.

There is no denying the fact that the opposition unity moves have rattled the BJP and the RSS. Organiser, the magazine linked to the RSS, writing that Modi magic is no longer a guarantee to win elections, is a testimony to the changing ground realities.

The Karnataka verdict has sent shockwaves within the Hindutva fold and the anxiety shows. The BJP's loss is even more significant because the Bajrang Bali card flopped miserably; Modi's rhetoric failed to resonate with the masses. Now the Sangh Parivar is in a churn, wondering whether religious polarisation has played out, and if that is the case, whether joblessness and price rise can damage the BJP in 2024.

The BJP is also worried about the elections later this year. In 2018, the party lost three major states - Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. It seems the BJP is not strongly placed to beat the Congress this time either. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP is in disarray. In Chhattisgarh, even BJP leaders admit that the Congress and Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel are on a strong wicket. In Rajasthan, loss and victory will be decided by the BJP's maverick Vasundhara Raje Scindia.

In 2024, the BJP has to be extra cautious. Even after the 2018 losses in three states, the BJP won big in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. In 2019, the Pulwama terror attack was the x-factor. But in 2024, there will be 10 years of anti-incumbency against the Modi government and hard questions will be asked by voters. If the BJP loses even two of the three states in the December elections, it will find it difficult to regain its ground in the general election.

It is in this context that the opposition unity move should be seen and analysed. It is rather shameful that a section of journalists has started lampooning leaders like Lalu Yadav. They are using words that are reflective of their urban caste bias. It has been years since Lalu Yadav has played an active role in politics, but he has not lost his earthy charisma and wit. Let's not forget that Lalu Yadav is one politician who has never compromised with the BJP and the RSS, unlike his other friends in Mandal politics. It would have been easy for Lalu to make friends with Modi and escape prison like the others did. His secular credentials are impeccable. He was the one who arrested LK Advani during his Ram temple campaign in the 1990s. His presence in the opposition camp will be a big draw for voters. His connect with OBC (Other Backward Class) voters is still unmatched, though he has not held any constitutional post for more than a decade and has spent time in jail on corruption charges.

The strong push for a caste-based census could become the defining undercurrent for the opposition and dent the BJP's efforts to attract OBC voters. Lalu Yadav, Nitish Kumar, and Akhilesh Yadav, all can play a very big role in this exercise, particularly in UP and Bihar, which can potentially hurt the BJP. Even Rahul Gandhi has demanded a caste-based census and Mallikarjun Kharge recently wrote to Prime Minister Modi to press for a caste-based count.

Despite Arvind Kejriwal, who showed his annoyance towards the Congress for not openly committing its support on the issue of the Delhi ordinance, the meeting could easily be rated a success. AAP is a prisoner of its own idiosyncrasies, and its tantrums at the meeting can only be described as childish and immature. It's not surprising that Kejriwal found himself isolated.

AAP has failed to understand that it may have won massively in Delhi and Punjab, but to be taken seriously at the national level, it must first win parliamentary seats. In its strongest borough, that is Delhi, it has failed to win a single Lok Sabha seat in two consecutive general elections. In Punjab it lost its Chief Minister, Bhagwant Mann's seat Sangrur within months of the state election win. Can AAP afford to not be a part of the opposition? AAP needs opposition leaders more than the other way round.

One fact which has gone unnoticed in this meeting was the willingness of the Congress to walk the extra mile for the sake of a united opposition.

It's a known fact that without the Congress, no opposition unity is possible. The Congress of today should not be confused with the Congress of 2019. The Bharat Jodo Yatra has helped the Congress reinvent itself. The victories in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka have made the party realise that the BJP can be defeated, provided more autonomy is given to regional leaders. Today, the Congress looks more confident. It is also aware that if Modi is back in 2024, then the Congress cannot escape the final assault and that can lead to the party's annihilation. This understanding has made the Congress more mature. It is treading a very fine line. It can't appear to be imposing on other regional parties and at the same time, it should not cede space to others at its own expense. The Congress, during the meeting, tried not to appear domineering and underlined its willingness to make whatever sacrifice was required to defeat the BJP. The Congress will host the next meeting in Shimla in the party-ruled Himachal Pradesh.

Those who disparage opposition unity should realise that it's not a joke to pull more than 20 parties under one umbrella. Many such meetings will be organised. Coalition politics is inherently chaotic and different. The shape and content of the unity move will take more such meetings. Leaders may have issues with each other till the last minute. Till the last minute, adjustments may happen, bitter statements may be made against each other.

But despite all the infirmities of coalitions, it has dawned on various parties in the last nine years that if they are not united this time, then there won't be any political party left after 2024. This realisation is the biggest glue to keep the opposition united, and make the BJP doubt itself in 2024.

The march has just begun. Wait and watch.

(Ashutosh is author of 'Hindu Rashtra' and Editor, satyahindi.com.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.