Opinion | Can BJP Benefit From A Long Poll Schedule? Here's What Data Shows

The recently announced schedule of the Lok Sabha election, spanning seven phases spread across 44 days, has stirred controversy among opposition parties in India. They have criticised the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Centre, alleging that the extended schedule is designed to afford ample time for the Prime Minister to tour extensively and for the BJP to mitigate anti-incumbency sentiments. Opponents argue that a multi-phase election unfairly favours the ruling party, particularly due to their significant financial resources.

The ruling BJP, however, contends that the increasing number of voters necessitates adjustments in the election schedule to ensure the integrity of the electoral process.

Historically, the election schedule has witnessed a cyclical pattern since India's inaugural polls in 1951-52. Initially spanning 120 days, it reached a low of only four days in 1980. Subsequently, the duration fluctuated, reaching 27 days in 1991, dropping to 11 days in 1996, and then rising to 12 days in 1998, and further to 29 days in 1999. It dipped to 21 days in 2004, before climbing to 28 days in 2009. Since then, the duration has steadily increased, culminating in the current 44-day schedule for 2024.

The question arises: does a longer election schedule benefit an incumbent government in retaining power? Analysis of the data yields intriguing insights.

• The first general elections were held between October 25, 1951, and February 21, 1952, spanning four months. The subsequent general elections took place between February 24 and June 9 in 1957, lasting a significantly shorter period of 19 days. Despite this brevity, the incumbent Congress managed to retain power, increasing its tally to 371 seats (seven more than the last time).
• The third general elections occurred between February 19 and 25 in 1962, lasting only seven days. While the incumbent Congress retained power, its seat count decreased slightly to 361 seats (10 less than the last election).
• Moving to the fourth general elections, held between February 17 and 21 in 1967, the duration was further reduced to just five days. Despite this, the incumbent Congress retained power, although its seat count dropped below 300 for the first time-78 seats fewer than the previous election. The 1967 elections marked the first significant challenge to the dominance of the Congress party.
• The fifth general elections took place between March 1 and 10 in 1971, extending over 10 days, almost a year earlier than scheduled. Despite a split in the Congress party, Indira Gandhi managed to retain power, winning 352 seats-69 more. 
• Moving forward to the sixth general elections, held between March 16 and 20 in 1977, lasting five days, the aftermath of the Emergency saw the installation of the first non-Congress government at the Centre, with the Congress losing nearly 200 seats.
• The seventh general elections, conducted between January 3 and 6 in 1980, lasted four days, following the premature end of the Janata Party government's term. Indira Gandhi's return to power saw a significant resurgence, regaining the seats lost in 1977.
• The eighth general elections, held between December 24 and 28 in 1984, lasted five days due to the assassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. The Congress secured a historic mandate, winning 404 seats.
• Moving ahead to the ninth general election, held between November 22 and 26 in 1989, also spanning five days, the Congress faced significant losses, leading to the installation of the V.P. Singh-led government.
• The tenth general elections, taking place between May 20 and June 15 in 1991, lasted 27 days, and were marked by the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi during the campaign. The Congress emerged as the single largest party with 244 seats, forming a government with support from smaller parties.
• The eleventh general elections, held between April 27 and May 7 in 1996, lasted 11 days, resulting in a hung Parliament, with the Congress losing over 100 seats. A Janata Dal-led government, supported by the Congress and the Left parties, was formed.
• The twelfth general elections, conducted between February 16 and 28 in 1998, lasted 12 days, and saw a hung Parliament. The BJP formed a government with support from regional parties.
• The thirteenth general elections, held between September 5 and October 3, 1999, spanned 29 days following the fall of the Vajpayee government by a single vote in a trust motion. The BJP-led NDA emerged victorious and retained power.
• The fourteenth general elections took place between April 20 and May 10 in 2004. It lasted 21 days, six months ahead of schedule. The BJP-led NDA lost the polls, and the Congress formed the government with support from the Left parties.
• Moving to the fifteenth general elections, which were held between April 16 and May 13 in 2009, lasted 28 days, and the Congress government led by Manmohan Singh secured a repeat term.
• The sixteenth general elections occurred between April 7 and May 12 in 2014, and spanned 36 days. The BJP, under the leadership of Narendra Modi, emerged victorious, securing 282 seats.
• In the seventeenth general elections, held between April 11 and May 19, 2019, lasted 39 days. The BJP retained power, winning over 300 seats.

Who Benefits From A Longer Schedule?

Of the 17 general elections held thus far, we exclude the first one as it serves as the baseline. Of the remaining 16 elections from 1957 to 2019, eight elections witnessed longer schedules, seven had shorter ones, while one had a schedule to similar to that of a previous election.

Out of the eight elections with longer schedules, the incumbent government retained power in five. Out of the seven elections with shorter schedules, the incumbent won only thrice and lost four times.

The probability of a ruling party returning to power is 62.5% in the case of a longer election schedule, whereas it drops to 42.9% with a shorter schedule.

In conclusion, historical data suggests that a longer election schedule tends to favour the return of the incumbent. However, it's important to note that this is not the sole determining factor, as various other factors do play an important role.

The upcoming 2024 elections, with a longer schedule of 44 days compared to 39 days in 2019, will be closely observed to see if the trend persists.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.