Opinion: Can India Ignore Pakistan's Population Explosion?

Pakistan's Statistics Bureau has recently revealed Census results that are a matter of concern.

Why? Let me explain. Pakistan's population is a little over 241 million, a big jump from the 2017 Census, when the figure was pegged at 207 million. The number indicates an unprecedented population explosion. In the last six years, Pakistan's population has increased by 35 million, a horrifying figure for an economically starved nation.

The Islamic nation's population explosion is indeed a cause of concern for India and its security interests because Pakistan's population growth is significantly higher than its economic growth. It is worth noting here that increased population in Pakistan means increased tensions in India amid constant worries about unabated infiltration at the borders.

India also needs to increase its efforts to check such infiltrations from across the border.

It is a ticking bomb that threatens Pakistan too. The population boom is straining its vital resources, crippling the economy, and overwhelming its social infrastructure. Several factors contribute to this increase, ranging from high birth rates, limited access to family planning services, cultural norms, and religious beliefs. What is alarming is that the United Nations has already projected that Pakistan's population could reach a whopping 403 million by 2050 if the current growth rate continues unchecked. This will trigger various challenges, including increased pressure on resources, inadequate healthcare facilities, and a strain on educational institutions. Already, the demand for food, water, housing, and energy has surged, leading to resource scarcity and environmental degradation.

There's more troubling news. The UN says Pakistan's working-age population will reach its peak around 2050. That means there could be great scope for sustained economic growth. But it has not happened and Pakistan has failed to capitalise on this potential due to a lack of foresight and political will.

A modelling study by the UN Population Fund says nearly 35 per cent of Pakistan's population could fall below the poverty line by 2030. The study further says around 37.4 per cent will experience food insecurity, 35.9 per cent children will face stunting, only 58 per cent children are likely to achieve minimal proficiency in reading. Worse, 57 per cent will not have access to safe drinking water, and 43 per cent of urban dwellers will have to shift to slums.

This is just seven years away. That means Pakistan must push some strong political commitment and effective governance and population policies, which must be integrated into development initiatives. Islamabad needs to increase its public financing to improve expenditure efficiency on family planning. Pakistan must realise that the time has come to procure contraceptives and expand its Lady Health Workers (LHWs) programmes. There must be more public-private partnerships.

Immediate action is crucial as Pakistan stands at a critical juncture of its journey. Failure to address the population issue may lead to socioeconomic challenges with long-lasting consequences. By prioritising population policy and making strategic interventions, Pakistan can transform these challenges into opportunities for sustainable development and improved quality of life for future generations.

Pakistan's healthcare system faces tremendous difficulties in providing quality services. Maternal and child mortality rates are on an all-time high. Worse, the burden of disease has intensified.

Two basic factors contribute to Pakistan's rapid population growth - lack of sufficient family planning and birth control measures. In the hinterland, there is reluctance to adopt modern contraceptive methods. Many families have more children than they can adequately support. The need to empower individuals with tools to make informed decisions about family planning simply does not exist in large parts of Pakistan. So, the overall well-being and prosperity of Pakistan's communities has just not happened. Families favoured more children, hoping some would survive to adulthood. But, that has not happened.

What is distressing in Pakistan is that the fear of losing children at a young age still spurs larger families as a form of insurance.

Then there is low literacy rate, particularly among women. The lack of access to education limits individuals' understanding of the importance of family planning and reproductive health. It is clear that educated individuals comprehend the benefits of smaller families, and they understand family planning and birth control. Sadly, this is not happening. There are some serious educational disparities, particularly in rural and marginalised communities, and that impacts family planning. Pakistan must realise empowering women with education and knowledge is essential and an imperative to break the cycle of high population growth.

Where does it leave India?

Indian security forces are already grappling with routine infiltrations at the border. Pakistan's increasing population poses a greater danger of such infiltrations increasing at an unimaginable pace. This means a larger and greater effort on the part of India to prevent such infiltration attempts that continue from Pakistan's hinterlands.

It is worth mentioning here that India faces a huge illegal immigration issue on its eastern borders. As a result, it is crucial for India to check such infiltration for its national and internal security. India's demography cannot be held hostage to the economic turmoil of its neighbours.

Pakistan needs to get its house in order. It must invest in quality education, promote gender equality, and advocate comprehensive reproductive health education. The Pakistani society needs to be informed and empowered, and contribute to sustainable population management. Pakistan must realise social and cultural norms have a profound impact on shaping reproductive behaviours, especially in communities where more children are seen as a symbol of prestige. Deep-rooted traditions which prioritise larger families need to change.

Pakistan must seriously open dialogues about reproductive health systems and break the stigma surrounding birth control. Experts have, time and again, claimed that such practices can empower individuals to make informed choices about their family size, contributing to sustainable population growth. If this happens, the nation can eventually shift away from excessive population growth. The beleaguered Pakistani society will then ensure that reproductive decisions are based on informed choices rather than social pressures.

The big pressure on India will then ease. But will it happen? That appears to be the billion-dollar question.

(V. VijayaSai Reddy is a Member of Rajya Sabha and Chairman, Parliamentary Standing Committee on Transport, Tourism and Culture)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author