Opinion | Can Siddaramaiah Government Survive MUDA Scam Allegations?

All eyes are on the Governor of Karnataka, Thaawarchand Gehlot, as a fresh complaint was lodged by a social activist on August 13, alleging Chief Minister Siddaramaiah's involvement in the Mysuru Urban Development Authority (MUDA) land scam. The complaint, filed by social activist Snehamayi Krishna, has been accepted by the Governor.

Siddaramaiah's prospects of continuing as Chief Minister looked bleak when the BJP and JD(S) launched a protest march from Bengaluru to Mysuru over the alleged illegal land allotment earlier in the month. There is mounting interest among all stakeholders in Karnataka about the Governor's next steps. If the Governor sanctions prosecution of the Chief Minister, it would be a significant blow, both personally and professionally, for Brand Siddaramaiah.

It would also spell danger for the Siddaramaiah-led Congress government, as it would reignite the power struggle for the top position in the party. While the opposition BJP and JD(S) may view this as a victory, they are unlikely to gain much at this time. For the people of Karnataka, who voted for Congress for governance free of corruption, it would represent another loss of trust in their representatives.

Meanwhile, the special court for cases involving MPs/MLAs is hearing two private complaints filed against the Chief Minister, his wife Parvathy BM, and others in relation to the MUDA land scam. The court is examining the admissibility of the private complaints by activists T J Abraham and Ms Krishna. On August 13, the court adjourned Ms Krishna's case to August 20, while Abraham's petition will be heard on August 21.

The Land Scandal

In the MUDA 'scam', it is suspected that compensatory sites were allotted to Siddaramaiah's wife Parvathi in a posh area in Mysuru, which had a higher property value compared to the location of her land, which had been "acquired" by MUDA. MUDA had allotted plots to Parvathi under a 50:50 ratio scheme in place of 3.16 acres of her land, where MUDA developed a residential layout. Under the controversial scheme, MUDA allocated 50 per cent of developed land to the land losers in place of undeveloped land acquired from them for forming residential layouts. Opposition and some activists have alleged that Parvathi had no legal title over the 3.16 acres of land. The Congress government on July 14 constituted a single-member inquiry commission under former High Court Judge Justice P N Desai to investigate the MUDA scam.

Earlier, Mr Abraham had approached the Governor seeking prosecution of the Chief Minister in the MUDA case. Based on Mr Abraham's plea, the Governor issued a showcause notice on July 26, asking the Chief Minister to submit his reply to the allegations within seven days as to why permission for prosecution should not be granted.

The Karnataka government on August 1 'strongly advised' the Governor to withdraw his "showcause notice" to the Chief Minister, alleging "gross misuse of the Constitutional Office" of the Governor. Subsequently, the Governor has been deliberating on the petition for sanctioning the Chief Minister's prosecution.

Political Slugfest

The Congress hopes that the Governor will adhere to the advice of the council of ministers. In the ensuing political slugfest over the scam, the opposition BJP and JD(S) held a week-long Bengaluru-Mysuru padayatre (foot march), culminating with a mega rally in Mysuru on August 10. Both parties have demanded Siddaramaiah's resignation in connection with the scam. The Congress organised a Janandolana convention in Mysuru on August 9 in solidarity with Siddaramaiah and to counter the opposition's allegations. Mysuru is also Siddaramaiah's home district.

After the BJP and JD(S) launched an offensive against the Chief Minister following the Governor's action, it appeared Siddaramaiah might lose his chair. However, the attack seems to have lost its momentum for now. Siddaramaiah's rival - Deputy CM DK Shivakumar - could not exploit the issue to his advantage, as he lacks sufficient support within the Congress legislature party. Sources say Shivakumar had to work hard to dispel rumours that he was behind the corruption allegations against Siddaramaiah. Moreover, Siddaramaiah has the backing of the Congress high command, particularly Rahul Gandhi. Any advantage for Shivakumar would depend on the Governor's actions and how the opposition builds its campaign thereafter.

Politically, the BJP-JDS combination is not in a position to provide an alternative government - at least for now.

"A lot of JD(S) and BJP leaders too are guilty of doing what Siddaramaiah has done. So, beyond a point, there is defensiveness on the part of the Opposition too, unless the Governor takes the issue forward," says K Subrahmanya, a political analyst.

At this moment, the Opposition's only satisfaction might be to discredit Siddaramaiah personally and the Congress government, preparing the ground for future electoral battles. The more immediate battle is the byelections in the assembly constituencies of Channapatna, Sandur (ST), and Shiggaon.

So, it's back to the Governor for now.

(Bharti Mishra Nath is Contributing Editor, NDTV)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author