Opinion: Caste Count A Turning Point In Indian Politics, Just Before 2024

The Bihar government's caste survey report, released on October 2, has opened the floodgates for caste reconfigurations and realignments in the country. The survey, timed just six months before the Lok Sabha elections, will have wider ramifications for political parties at the national and state levels. There is a clamour for similar exercises in other states, with regional parties believing it will only benefit them.

At the recent meeting in Mumbai, the opposition INDIA bloc had already called for a caste census in the country. With this masterstroke, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav - the veterans of caste engineering - have set the agenda for political parties. The country may witness a second Mandal-Mandir political match in the run up to next year's national election.

The caste-based survey, also known as the Bihar Jaati Adharit Ganana, was launched by the Nitish Kumar-led government in January. Its aim was to improve the lot of backward communities and ensure better implementation of welfare schemes. In the caste and community-based vote bank politics of Bihar, an overall statistics of the state's caste demographics would certainly influence the ruling coalition's strategies and policies, particularly linked to social justice and welfare. In fact, there are no surprises in the survey.

The caste break-up shows that Other Backward Classes (OBCs), Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes form 84 per cent of the electorate. Upper castes, with a 10.5 per cent share in the population, will have no major impact on the math. The Muslim (17.7 per cent) -Yadav (14.26 per cent) combination will call the shots, with 32 per cent of the votes.

Muslims have been voting as one homogenous bloc for INDIA parties until now. The EBC population of 36 per cent (including more than 100 castes, including Nitish Kumar's) has always oscillated between the BJP and the opposition.     

The caste survey is bound to trigger spinoffs in other states. The demands for a caste census are focused on proving that the OBC population far exceeds the 27 per cent reservation limit and that urgent correction is due. There is also a call for enhancing the quota beyond the 50 per cent cap suggested by the Supreme Court.

In Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party's new opposition formula "PDA" - pichhde (Backward), Dalit, alpasankhyak (Minority) - is central to its strategy for 2024. Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party and the BJP-led NDA's alliance partners, the Nishad Party and OP Rajbhar's Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), are all for a caste census. The Congress has promised a survey in Madhya Pradesh if it comes to power later this year.

The Maharashtra, Odisha and Jharkhand assemblies have already endorsed the demand for caste surveys. Down South, Karnataka and Telangana have completed similar surveys and but have not revealed the data. Only Bengal's ruling Trinamool Congress opposed the census. However, in the emerging scenario, it may not be long before Mamata Banerjee revises her stand.

The Congress has realised the importance of bringing its OBC leaders to prominence (Siddaramaiah in Karnataka, Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan). However, it is yet to do that in the northern Hindi belt states like Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.

In the last decade, the BJP has demonstrated to its rivals how Mandal and Kamandal could be a formula for electoral success. The party has also projected Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the face of the OBC in national politics (DON'T THINK IT IS SUBTLE). At the same time, it is no secret that the BJP continues to find the task of balancing its traditional upper caste support base and its recent success in reeling in OBCs, Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes.

It is in these balancing challenges of the BJP that its political opponents sense an opportunity to weaken the ruling party's social and ideological appeal amongst the OBCs, STs and SCs. Thus, an increasing demand for caste-based enumeration. What is unsaid is the BJP's huge dilemma in all this. If it supports a caste count, it could alienate its traditional upper-caste supporters. If not, it could end up angering its OBC, ST and SC supporters. In either scenario, its Hindutva appeal to voters is weakened.

The BJP may confront fresh challenges internally in maintaining the organisational and power balance; there is a strong possibility of a churning within the OBC bloc. Until recently, a larger percentage of relatively well-off OBCs like the Yadavs, Kurmis and Jats, had benefitted from the caste-centric census. This can serve to heighten political consciousness amongst numerically smaller OBCs.

In recent years, many smaller OBC caste-centric parties have emerged on the electoral horizon, in states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, and Rajasthan. A caste count can generate new political forces never really anticipated by established OBC parties.

Coming soon, perhaps - the BJP's counter strategy to consolidate Hindus under its flag amid the INDIA bloc's caste-focused politics.

(Bharti Mishra Nath is a senior journalist)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author