With his election as the leader of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), Prime Minister Narendra Modi now starts to walk on the Agneepath, or, a path of fire. He is a decisive leader who was the Chief Minister of Gujarat for three consecutive terms and later the Prime Minister for two terms. And he did so with an absolute majority for his party in the bag. As the leader of the Cabinet, he did what he wanted to do, never constrained by the support of allies. But now, for the first time, he will lead a government in which the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) does not have a majority of its own and is dependent on the support of its allies.
The BJP has only 240 seats, 32 short of the majority mark of 272. The party had 282 seats in 2014 and 303 in 2019. On both occasions, the BJP was supported by allies, and together, the NDA had 353 MPs in the 17th Parliament. An absolute majority for any party in the Lok Sabha ensures that the party and the government will have smooth functioning without any fetters; it's not dependent on others for policy formulation and its implementation. But a coalition government, by its nature, is full of contradictions and is always constrained by the support of its allies.
Consultation, And PM Modi
Coalition government, by its own logic, is always uncertain and unstable; wide-ranging consultation is the lifeblood of such governments. Prime Minister Modi is not known to believe in wide-ranging consultations; he believes in implementing what he thinks is right, without being handicapped by the wishes and interests of supporting parties. In the last 10 years, the Prime Minister has been accused of undermining the Cabinet system, not relying on the collective wisdom of the Cabinet. Like Indira Gandhi, he, too, was the leader and the Cabinet; ministers had little autonomy to make decisions even in their own departments.
Now, the situation has changed. The BJP does not have a majority on its own. For its survival, it depends on leaders like Nitish Kumar, Chandrababu Naidu, Chirag Paswan, Eknath Shinde, Ajit Pawar, H.D. Kumaraswamy, and others. The opposition, which was given scant regard by the treasury benches in the last 10 years, is now much stronger. The BJP, which once talked about a 'Congress-mukt Bharat', or a Congress-free India, now has to face a resurgent and aggressive Congress led by Rahul Gandhi. And he will not be alone in attacking the government; he will be supported by Akhilesh Yadav, Uddhav Thackeray, Sharad Pawar, Stalin and Mamata Banerjee, who have given crushing blows to the BJP in their respective states.
Back To Equilibrium
The opposition today is far more cohesive than it ever has been in the last 10 years. They are of the opinion that only unitedly they can fight and defeat the BJP led by Modi. Rahul's attack on the stock market issue even before the government could take oath is an indication of the days to come. The functioning of Parliament and politics will definitely not be the same. The equilibrium of Indian politics, which had decisively tilted towards the right, is back on its original keel. To run the government, the Prime Minister has to take the middle path. In this changed atmosphere, the Prime Minister and his government have to operate, function and deliver. Will it be easy?
It won't be a cakewalk. Modi is not known to change his style, and that is the biggest challenge. There will be occasions when he may struggle to accommodate the demands of his allies and will not have an option but to honour their wishes if the government has to survive. Atal Bihari Vajpayee had the tenacity and acumen to lead the government supported by more than a dozen parties. There were occasions when he had to swallow the bitter pill. He had the large-heartedness to listen to the accusations not only of the opposition but also unjust demands and dissenting voices from his own party and allies and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). Whether Modi will learn a few lessons from Vajpayee is the question.
The next few months will be very crucial as they will pave the way for new politics - the politics of accommodation and adjustment. Cooperation will take precedence over confrontation.
Not A Smooth Sail Ahead
The Prime Minister will have to watch out for his two main allies. Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar are too wily and are known for changing stripes in pursuit of their political interests. Mutual distrust will define the relationship of the BJP and the Janata Dal (United)-Telugu Desam Party [JD(U)-TDP] combine. I won't be surprised if the Shiv Sena-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) model of splitting a political party is not repeated in the near future. What is the guarantee that two-thirds of members of these two parties won't decide to move towards and merge with the BJP to circumvent the anti-defection law? That will help the BJP inch towards the magic figure of 272. It is in the realm of possibility that smaller parties within the NDA and also of the INDIA bloc may either merge themselves with the BJP, willingly or unwillingly, or their MPs would leave their mother organisation and be part of the ruling party.
The election is over, but politics will continue. I am sure that the coming days will be interesting. It is to be seen whether this government completes its term or the country will see another election sooner than later. Agnipath and Agnipariksha - these are the words that we will keep hearing during the course of the 18th Lok Sabha.
(Ashutosh is the author of 'Hindu Rashtra' and co-founder of SatyaHindi.com)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author