As I went yesterday from TV studio to TV studio, starting at ten in the morning and ending at nine at night, and again on looking at the headlines in the papers this morning, I felt like Huckleberry Finn in Mark Twain's novel sitting in on his own funeral service in church when he is perfectly alive and kicking. For none of the anchors and headline subs took any account of the fact that in the five states where votes were counted yesterday, the Congress on the whole bagged many more seats than the BJP, and in four of the five states a significantly larger share of the total votes polled as well as a much larger share of the vote in seats contested. Does this lead to a Congress-mukt Bharat?
Let us first take seats won. There were a total of 822 seats at stake. The BJP took 65, the Congress more than double:139! The BJP - the emerging "national party", (ha ha), captured just 6% of the seats; the Congress a little over 12%. The break-up is given below:
Assam
BJP 60
CONGRESS 26
Wah, Wah, Modi!
West Bengal
BJP 3
CONGRESS 44
Hai Hai, Modi!
Kerala
BJP 1
CONGRESS 22
Hai Hai, Modi!
Tamil Nadu
BJP 0
CONGRESS 8
Hai Hai, Modi!
Puducherry
BJP 0
CONGRESS 15
Hai Hai, Modi!
Jai, Jai, Congress!
Is this a Congress in ICU? Is this a Congress on its death-bed?
Let us now take vote-shares: Percentage of total votes cast
Assam
BJP 29.5
CONGRESS 31
Congress higher!
West Bengal
BJP 10.2
CONGRESS 12.3
Congress ahead, but not by much.
Kerala
BJP 10.5
CONGRESS 23.7
Congress way ahead
Tamil Nadu
BJP 2.8
CONGRESS 6.4
Both low, but Congress two and a quarter times higher
Puducherry
BJP Nil
CONGRESS 30.6
No contest. Congress far, far ahead. Forming the government.
Let us now compare vote shares in seats contested:
Assam
BJP 42.05
CONGRESS 32
BJP higher
West Bengal
BJP 10.2
CONGRESS 12.3
Congress higher - but not by much
Tamil Nadu
BJP 2.8
CONGRESS 6.4
Both low, but Congress two and a quarter times higher
Puducherry
BJP Nil
CONGRESS 42.77
Congress wins hugely. BJP nowhere in the picture.
Let us finally compare the "hit rate" of the two parties, that is, the percentage of seats won in seats contested:
Assam
BJP 67.4
CONGRESS 21.3
Shabash, Modiji. Jeet gaye.
West Bengal
BJP 1.03
CONGRESS 47.83
Hai, Hai, Modiji, buri tharah haar gaye!
Kerala
BJP 1
CONGRESS 25.3
Phir, buri haalath, Modiji
Tamil Nadu
BJP Nil
CONGRESS 19.51
Arre, kahan reh gaye, Modiji?
Puducherry
BJP No show
CONGRESS 71
Bechare, Modiji, pahunch bhi nahi paye! Congress ki mahan jeet
Of course, the Congress is in a bad way - but it was almost that way before Bihar. It needs to pull itself up and return to its earlier eminence. But the idea that the party is finished, assiduously propagated by Amit Shah and gang, needs to be disabused. The Congress is not in ICU. It is very much in the running.
(Mani Shankar Aiyar is former Congress MP, Rajya Sabha.)
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of NDTV and NDTV does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.
Assam
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CONGRESS 26
Wah, Wah, Modi!
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BJP 3
CONGRESS 44
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Kerala
BJP 1
CONGRESS 22
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Tamil Nadu
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CONGRESS 8
Hai Hai, Modi!
Puducherry
BJP 0
CONGRESS 15
Hai Hai, Modi!
Jai, Jai, Congress!
Is this a Congress in ICU? Is this a Congress on its death-bed?
Let us now take vote-shares: Percentage of total votes cast
Assam
BJP 29.5
CONGRESS 31
Congress higher!
West Bengal
BJP 10.2
CONGRESS 12.3
Congress ahead, but not by much.
Kerala
BJP 10.5
CONGRESS 23.7
Congress way ahead
Tamil Nadu
BJP 2.8
CONGRESS 6.4
Both low, but Congress two and a quarter times higher
Puducherry
BJP Nil
CONGRESS 30.6
No contest. Congress far, far ahead. Forming the government.
Let us now compare vote shares in seats contested:
Assam
BJP 42.05
CONGRESS 32
BJP higher
West Bengal
BJP 10.2
CONGRESS 12.3
Congress higher - but not by much
Tamil Nadu
BJP 2.8
CONGRESS 6.4
Both low, but Congress two and a quarter times higher
Puducherry
BJP Nil
CONGRESS 42.77
Congress wins hugely. BJP nowhere in the picture.
Let us finally compare the "hit rate" of the two parties, that is, the percentage of seats won in seats contested:
Assam
BJP 67.4
CONGRESS 21.3
Shabash, Modiji. Jeet gaye.
West Bengal
BJP 1.03
CONGRESS 47.83
Hai, Hai, Modiji, buri tharah haar gaye!
Kerala
BJP 1
CONGRESS 25.3
Phir, buri haalath, Modiji
Tamil Nadu
BJP Nil
CONGRESS 19.51
Arre, kahan reh gaye, Modiji?
Puducherry
BJP No show
CONGRESS 71
Bechare, Modiji, pahunch bhi nahi paye! Congress ki mahan jeet
Of course, the Congress is in a bad way - but it was almost that way before Bihar. It needs to pull itself up and return to its earlier eminence. But the idea that the party is finished, assiduously propagated by Amit Shah and gang, needs to be disabused. The Congress is not in ICU. It is very much in the running.
(Mani Shankar Aiyar is former Congress MP, Rajya Sabha.)
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of NDTV and NDTV does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.
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