In terms of domestic politics, the failure of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to secure a majority of its own in the just-concluded national elections in India is undoubtedly a setback. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was personally confident that the BJP would get an absolute majority on its own and could touch the 400 mark with its alliance partners. The BJP has secured 240 seats (compared to 303 in 2019) and 293 in total with its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners.
The NDA led by Modi will now form the next government. Securing a third term as leader is an exceptional feat in a Western-style democracy. Anti-incumbency, a desire for change, and loss of public appeal after a long tenure affect politicians in a democratic set-up. In India, Nehru was Prime Minister three times but no Prime Minister after 1962 has secured three terms. Internationally, in Western-style democracies, only six political leaders (Nehru included) have succeeded in winning three electoral mandates.
Third-Term Objectives
Modi had announced during his election campaign the goals for his third term, the principal being that of making India the world's third-largest economy by 2029. For achieving that, his list includes economic and bureaucratic reforms, attracting foreign investment and global supply chains to India, increasing the share of manufacturing in the economy, building an advanced technology base including in areas such as semiconductors and electronics, becoming more self-reliant in defence manufacturing and expanding defence exports, greater digitalisation of the economy, and expanding India's soft power based on its civilisational attributes. The overarching goal is to make India a developed economy by 2047.
Foreign policy was not an issue in the elections. Some indication of the NDA's thinking on foreign policy issues was available from its manifesto. India's leadership and presence in global forums, including the success of the G20 chaired by India figured in it. The Neighbourhood First policy was reiterated. No mention was made specifically of the US, but collaboration with countries in the Indo-Pacific was mentioned, with growth and security for all as a goal. China too was not mentioned, but accelerating the development of infrastructure on the India-China border was. Support for Israel on the issue of terrorism, India's aspiration for permanent membership of the UN Security Council figured in the manifesto. Substantial gains in the global spread of India's soft power such as the International Yoga Day and Ayurveda found mention. The return of stolen artefacts to the country and encouraging the study of Indian classical languages in educational institutions across the world were the other subjects included in the manifesto.
Renewed Engagement with Russia likely
During the election campaign, Modi did not dwell on foreign policy issues. In an interview with a Western media outlet, he referred to the importance of India-China relations but stressed the need to normalise the situation on the border. He spoke of India's vocation of being friends with all countries in the world, besides increasing its role in world affairs. The External Affairs Minister, however, reached out to audiences in various parts of India to familiarise them with the ins and outs of India's foreign policy. The Minister has been stoutly defending India's ties with Russia, its attachment to multi-alignment, the importance attached to Quad, and the absolute need to normalise the situation on the India-China border as that alone would lead to a normalisation of bilateral ties. The Minister has also been exposing with unusual frankness the double standards of the West on many issues.
Modi had, with the force of his personality, his self-assurance, his pursuit of an independent foreign policy, a sharp focus on national interest and an ability to build good personal rapport with foreign leaders, put his stamp on the international scene. The growth of the Indian economy during his tenure added strength to his handling of India's diplomatic options. The success of India's G-20 presidency under his leadership contributed to raising his international stature. It was widely believed that he would win his third term easily. The electoral rebuff that he and the BJP have received has raised the question of whether this will now affect the élan of his leadership at the global level and aspects of India's foreign policy.
Not only did the opposition in India, legitimately in terms of domestic politics, pull out all stops to deny Modi a third term victory, but international lobbies have illegitimately interfered in India's domestic politics. And this, at the very least, to deny the BJP a single party majority with the intention of weakening Modi internally and externally, and have leverages to make India more amenable to Western persuasion and pressure. India's rise inevitably means accelerating the shift of power from the West to the East. The rise of a power that seeks multipolarity, eschews alliances and seeks a greater role in international governance cannot but affect the strategic calculations of established powers on handling the global system in ways that allow them to safeguard their traditional dominance.
Ever since Modi and the BJP came to power in 2014, a confluence of opposition political forces in India and anti-Modi lobbies in the West has sought to make the task of governing India as per the BJP's agenda as difficult as possible. One of the tools for this has been tarnishing India's image by raising concerns about deficits on issues of democracy, human rights, treatment of minorities etc.
Teaching Anti-India Elements A Lesson
In the lead-up to the 2024 election, western media, think tanks, foundations, human rights organisations and academics launched what seemed an orchestrated campaign against the Modi government. This campaign has closely mirrored the accusations of the opposition parties and sundry civil society organisations in India about negative developments in the country. The New York Times, The Guardian, The Economist, The Washington Post, The Financial Times, Le Monde, Deutsche Welle, etc, have been effectively playing politics through their heavily slanted reports. The Economist has, unsurprisingly, welcomed the "humbling" of Modi.
If Western media, think tanks, foundations, academics and civil society organisations have spearheaded the campaign against Modi, it is with the active or tacit encouragement of what is often referred to as the Deep State, namely, the intelligence agencies, the bureaucracy and political lobbies. The fact that the US State Department publishes reports on human rights and religious freedoms in India and comments on even minor communal incidents in a country as vast and populous as India shows the feedback loops that operate.
This is not news for Modi and the BJP, but India has to find a balance in its larger national interest between the productive and the more problematic parts of its ties with the West. It is for the third-term Modi government to decide what it should do to discipline \foreign journalists in India whose bias against Modi and the BJP and interference in our internal politics have been manifest. Maybe the time has come to bite the bullet and think of cancelling the accreditation of the most egregious of them.
Little Change In Policy Direction
In his address at the BJP headquarters after the election results, Modi made it amply clear that there would be no change in the direction and content of the policies that he had already broadly defined for his third term. In the area of foreign policy, there is no compulsion whatsoever to change course. Efforts to cultivate the neighbours will continue, especially with the China challenge becoming more daunting. China will be countered on the border and in the Indo-Pacific even as the doors of dialogue are kept open and economic ties are only selectively reduced. Relations with Russia will continue to be given due importance, the potential of their expansion will be explored and the summit-level dialogue with Russia is likely to be resumed. The geopolitical advantages of our membership of BRICS and the SCO will continue.
Cooperation in various domains with the US is vital for our future growth and technological progress will continue to expand pragmatically. The Quad agenda will be pursued, ties with the Gulf countries will continue to be reinforced, and amplifying the voice of the Global South internationally will remain a critical part of our effort to expand our own global role and influence. The global spread of India's soft power flowing from its civilisational legacies will continue to be an important foreign policy objective. The concept of "vishwabandhu", which in a sense signifies independence in foreign policy making, multi-alignment and not getting involved in third-party conflicts, will be the broad feature of our foreign policy.
What is important in the international context is Modi's continuance as Prime Minister. Whether he got an absolute majority in the elections or not is not very relevant in foreign dealings. Many leaders in the West have either not won majorities or their popularity has dipped drastically after elections, or they are leaders of coalition governments. The world has to deal with leaders in power. Whether India will have a stable government and therefore stable policies is of greater importance.
Managing domestic politics in India with all its diversities and fractures was already difficult even with the BJP having an absolute majority in the first two terms. The BJP's reduced majority will encourage opposition elements to become more raucous. They will also try to leverage foreign anti-Indian lobbies, as before, to generate pressure on the government. A stronger pushback from the government against foreign interference will be necessary to discourage this.
The coalition government this time, however, is much stronger and more stable than what has been the case between the 1990s and 2014. The economic outlook of India remains bright because the fundamentals of the economy are strong. The lure of India for the West is not its democracy but its growing economy, its expanding market and its human potential.
(Kanwal Sibal was Foreign Secretary and Ambassador to Turkey, Egypt, France, and Russia, and Deputy Chief Of Mission in Washington.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author