(Ashok Malik is a columnist and writer living in Delhi)In the run-up to the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the CPI(M) and sections of the Congress in West Bengal claimed Mamata Banerjee would eventually support, directly or indirectly, the BJP and Narendra Modi. As such, she wasn't really in the non-Modi or anti-Modi camp and a vote for her by those hostile to the BJP was a wasted vote, these parties claimed.
Six months on, that charge seems laughable. Despite the efforts of senior ministers in the Modi government, who have gone out of their way to humour Banerjee and assure her government in Kolkata of cooperation, her Trinamool Congress remains a difficult customer.
Along with the CPI(M), it is at the forefront of attempts to block or delay the Insurance Bill. Indeed it has replaced the Communists as the eternal naysayer in Parliament - opposing about every reformist economic initiative, opposing FDI in every sector on every channel every evening, but keeping mum it would appear on FDI in terrorism.
That final comment is not necessarily facetious. The uncovering of an Islamist module in West Bengal's Burdwan district has implications for both Bangladesh, the Awami League government of which is the immediate target of religious extremists, and in the longer run, for India. To be fair, it cannot be entirely blamed on the TMC government. It is quite likely that the terror factory exploited a network of contacts and resources built in the CPI(M) years, which ended only in 2011.
Banerjee's colleagues insist she is worried by the rise in Muslim radicalism, particularly in districts bordering Bangladesh, and often speaks about it at closed-door councils. If this is the case, it is certainly not apparent to the rest of the world. Far from being nuanced and careful with their words, Banerjee and her MPs have been loud and irresponsible. They have dismissed the Burdwan findings as a conspiracy masterminded by the Union government, along the way accusing the National Security Advisor and the officials of the National Investigation Agency of being RSS agents.
It is unclear who that dig was intended at. Contradictions emerge depending on which Trinamool spokesperson you hear on which channel - or sometimes which question you hear the same Trinamool spokesperson answer in the duration of a single television programme.
For all her over-the-top theatrics, Banerjee is a shrewd politician. She is working to a plan; it may or may not be accomplished, but it is important to understand elements of that plan. By offering the Congress and the CPI(M) a partnership to fight for "secularism" but no electoral alliance, Banerjee is only making those parties acutely aware of their diminished standing in West Bengal. The Congress is down to two districts - Murshidabad and Malda. The CPI(M) is gripped by defeatism and the defection of its workers, first to the TMC and more recently to the BJP.
The Muslim vote is extremely important in West Bengal. Muslims make up about 30 per cent of the electorate but tend to vote in higher numbers than non-Muslims, giving their vote that much more effectiveness. Banerjee calculates Muslims will be opposed to the BJP in all circumstances and will vote for her as the default choice. In particular, she is hoping those Muslims who still back the Congress will move to her.
In this, she is making a valid assumption. The Chowringhee assembly seat in the heart of Kolkata has a substantial Muslim segment. Till the 2014 Lok Sabha election, community voters backed the Congress. In the by-election that followed in September, they switched to the Trinamool.
By being condescending towards the Congress and the CPI(M) - even while uttering sweet nothings about a "secular platform" - Banerjee is driving home the message that she is all that stands between the BJP and success in West Bengal. She is also talking up the BJP as the party to fear. As such, the state is headed for a double-negative election in 2016. If you don't want Mamata Banerjee, there is no option to the BJP. If you don't like Narendra Modi and the BJP, there is no option to the TMC.
Banerjee reckons the BJP is starting from a low base - even though it won 17 per cent of the vote in the Lok Sabha election - and can at best finish a strong second. As for the Congress and the CPI(M), they will be only spoilers. She believes a fractured opposition will allow the TMC to win a majority with 35-40 per cent of the popular vote. It is a reasonable bet.
What could go wrong for Banerjee? The first loss is reputational. By making outlandish comments on an issue of national security, that too in a border state, her government has given the impression of being feckless and immature. This will make some voters wary. Indeed, even sections of Muslims, alarmed at Trinamool raj and hooliganism by its cadres, are switching to the BJP. This is particularly marked in the Birbhum district in the western part of the state. While absolute numbers are small, the trend is telling.
Second, by banking so heavily on the Muslim vote, by resorting to showy symbolism and seeking to present even the uncovering of a Bangladeshi terror cell as a conspiracy against Indian Muslims, Banerjee is playing with fire. She is unleashing toxic energies she may not be able to control. What if she gets outflanked by a Muslim-only fringe group, which slices into her vote and does to the TMC what the MIM - the Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen - did to the Congress in the Maharashtra election?
For West Bengal, that question must seem terrifying. The possible answers could be even more so.
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