The upcoming Delhi assembly election is the mother of all political battles in recent times. It's a contest between two titans, both of whom hate to lose. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would not like to be trounced by Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) for the third time in a row. And Kejriwal knows that if Modi vanquishes him in his own fortress, it will be the beginning of the end of his political career. For both leaders, the stakes are too high. No other politician has defeated Modi as overwhelmingly as Kejriwal has in successive assembly polls in Delhi. The national capital remains out of the BJP's reach.
Kejriwal started his political career in Delhi. It was in the national capital that he first experimented with electoral politics and mesmerised the nation with a different kind of politics. Even before Modi's rise on the national stage, Kejriwal was the darling of the media and the middle class. It was nothing less than a miracle that a ragtag army of novices led by Kejriwal defeated Modi, despite the BJP's formidable election machinery, in the 2015 assembly polls. The defeat was historic. The BJP could win only three of the 70 seats. In 2020, when Modi tried to seek revenge, he lost again. Kejriwal rejoiced in his hubris.
The Transformation Of The 'Aam Aadmi'
By 2020, however, Kejriwal was no longer the same man. The radical revolutionary had transformed himself into a Machiavellian politician with no ideological commitment. Retaining the chief minister's office became his sole objective. After the victory in Punjab and partial success in Gujarat, the AAP became a national party, joining the Congress and the BJP as one of India's major political forces currently. Among regional parties, the AAP is the only one to have governments in two states.
Still, the 2025 Delhi election is likely to be the toughest battle for the AAP. The party is grappling with over 10 years of incumbency, along with serious corruption charges against its leaders, including Kejriwal. He knows better than anyone that a loss in Delhi is unacceptable. Such a defeat would serve as a confirmation that the corruption charges levelled by the BJP and the Congress, which led to jail terms for senior AAP leaders, including Kejriwal, hold some weight. It would also signal that his promise to create a corruption-free society was a farce and an opportunistic tool to win elections.
Kejriwal On The Move
It is no surprise that after securing bail and being released from Tihar, Kejriwal has been constantly on the move. His first two steps indicate his nervousness. He resigned as chief minister and appointed Atishi in his place. Then, he moved out of the chief minister's bungalow, which had become controversial. This was his attempt to distance himself from corruption charges and present himself as a victim in the eyes of the public. He had previously stated that he would return to the chief minister's post only after being cleared in the people's court. He has since focused on a mass contact programme, visiting people daily and conducting door-to-door campaigns. By doing so, he is engaging directly with voters and sending the message that he has been victimised by the Modi government, and that the corruption charges against him are baseless and part of a larger conspiracy.
Liberal Dose Of Freebies
Kejriwal has since been making a wide range of promises. He has rolled out an attractive basket of freebies, including Rs 2,100 for women voters and free medical treatment for senior citizens aged 60 and above. To counter the BJP's Hindutva narrative, he has promised that if he wins, his government will provide Rs 18,000 per month as salary to Hindu priests and Sikh granthis. To win the support of urban colonies, he has announced, as reported by The Indian Express, that his government would provide funds to Resident Welfare Associations (RWAs) to hire private guards if his party returns to power in the February 5 elections.
Kejriwal has, of course, built a strong record of promising and delivering free electricity and water, which has been a key factor in the AAP's remarkable victories in the 2020 assembly election. Like Modi's Gujarat model, the AAP has been promoting the Delhi model of education and healthcare. But Kejriwal knows that 10 years is a long time in politics, and old promises have limited staying power. To attract new voters while maintaining his existing social base, new promises are necessary. The latest promises of freebies should be understood in that context.
A Bipolar Contest Is Inevitable
On the other hand, for some strange reason, the BJP seems to not have learned from its past mistakes. Since 1998, the party has remained out of power in Delhi, despite having won all seven Lok Sabha seats in the last three general elections. The BJP has a strong social base in the national capital, consistently securing 32% to 39% of the votes in assembly elections. Even in the most recent MCD elections, the BJP managed to secure 39% votes. The party's biggest failure in assembly elections has been its inability to raise its vote share beyond 40%, which is necessary to win and form a government in Delhi. In 1993, when the BJP first formed a government, it secured 47.82% of the total votes, while the Congress had 47.76%. In the 1998, 2003, and 2008 elections, the Congress secured 47.76%, 48.13% and 40.31% votes, respectively. In 1993, the BJP benefited from Madan Lal Khurana's strong leadership, while Sheila Dikshit later led the Congress to form successive governments. Since the deaths of Madan Lal Khurana and Sahib Singh Verma, the BJP has failed to produce a leader of the same stature or charisma as Kejriwal.
The Congress has been trying to make this election triangular. But its performance in the last three elections has not been inspiring. In 2020, the party had only 4.26% votes, though in parliament elections, its showing has been better. Can the Congress surprise Delhi voters and political pundits? Even a hyper-optimistic watcher may not bet on that.
The Delhi elections are once again likely to be bipolar. The Congress may manage to secure a few seats, but it won't be a major player. While it's also possible that the AAP's vote share could shrink, the million-dollar question is whether it will decrease enough for the BJP to cross the 40% threshold. If that happens, the AAP will be in serious trouble. But, for this to occur, the BJP needs to decode the ‘K' Factor. Can it do that?
(Ashutosh is the author of 'Hindu Rashtra' and co-founder of SatyaHindi.com)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
