Delimitation, the exercise to increase the number of seats in Parliament and state assemblies according to population, has been in a state of deep freeze for the last 50 years. By two constitutional amendments, Parliament had extended the exercise for the first time in 1975 and then in the year 2000. Now, it is in limbo yet for want of a Census, which was stalled in 2020 on account of COVID-19.
On March 22, Chief Ministers of four States—MK Stalin from Tamil Nadu, Revanth Reddy from Telangana, Pinarayi Vijayan from Kerala and Bhagwant Mann from Punjab—and one Deputy Chief Minister, along with a representative of regional parties, met in Chennai and suggested that the next delimitation exercise, due in 2026, should be frozen yet again or have one which is fair. Stalin, Reddy, Vijayan and Mann were joined by Karnataka's Deputy Chief Minister, DK Shivakumar, Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) leader KT Rama Rao and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) Officiating president Balwinder Singh Bhunder, while Biju Janata Dal (BJD) president Naveen Patnaik attended the meet virtually.
Interestingly, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Nara Chandrababu Naidu was conspicuous by his absence at the meeting. This was in sharp contrast to the hyperactive Naidu the country saw in the run-up to the year 2000, when fancied himself as the CEO of Andhra Pradesh and advocated heavily for small family norms, even exerting pressure on the Vajpayee Government-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) he was supporting at the time, to freeze delimitation. Whether it was political compulsion or pragmatic calculation, nobody knows, but the fact that the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) chief preferred not to attend the March 22 meeting held by Stalin raised enough eyebrows.
No Straightforward Answers
One thing that's clear after last week's Chennai meeting is that the move cannot be seen from a simple South vs. North prism. A straightforward calculation based on sheer population numbers will be disadvantageous for those states that have been successful in stabilising their populations and have enforced effective family planning measures. This, in turn, will dilute their political strength in Parliament. Not just southern states, but leaders in Punjab, too, are concerned about losing representation in Parliament and possibly drawing at par with neighbouring Haryana.
The effort to bring delimitation back into focus has been dubbed a political move, with the BJP alleging that it is an attempt to deflect attention from issues around misgovernance. Repeated assurances, including those by Union Home Minister Amit Shah, have failed to allay concerns and did not receive much traction at the Chennai meeting. The leaders now plan to meet in Hyderabad next.
Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, Assam and West Bengal are set to have assembly elections next year. In the run-up to that, it may be argued that Stalin is trying to strengthen his profile in national politics. This will not only provide the septuagenarian leader a firmer grip on opposition politics but also help his son Udhyanidhi as he prepares to take the reins of the DMK from his father.
Exploring Options
The delimitation exercise can either be carried out on the basis of the 2011 Census, or it can await a new Census, about which very little is clear at the moment. In the interregnum, leaders suggest that the exercise should be frozen for another quarter of a century, giving other states a chance to stabilise their populations. However, many argue that delimitation could be done in states for assemblies without affecting the balance in New Delhi.
In case a decision is finally made not to kick the can further down the road, several options were explored at the Chennai meeting to devise a more elaborate formula for delimitation. These included approaches such as taking into account states' fiscal contribution and development levels to calculate seat shares, or, using a percentage basis to increase the Southern states' share in the Lok Sabha, or, raising the strength of the Rajya Sabha to counter the North's dominance in the Lower House.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA government at the Centre must work with all stakeholders to find a solution that's acceptable to all. Unilateral actions, whether by the Centre or the protesting states, will only imperil India's federal spirit and spawn mutual distrust.
(K.V. Prasad is a senior Delhi-based journalist)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
