So Devendra Fadnavis has got his way after all. Three years after the humiliation of serving as an 80-hour Chief Minister, the 51-year-old has ensured the ejection of his rival, Uddhav Thackeray, who announced his resignation last night on Facebook before delivering it in person to Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari.
Devendra Fadnavis was photographed at that time eating laddoos in celebration with BJP workers. Revenge is sweet.
State BJP chief Chandrakant Patil and Devendra Fadnavis
If things continue to go to plan, he will return as Chief Minister, flanked by Eknath Shinde, the man who precipitated a revolt against Uddhav Thackeray within his party, the Shiv Sena. So thorough was Eknath Shinde's exercise that in just eight days, his posse of rebel Shiv Sena MLAs nearly doubled in size. From 20 to 39. Enough to cost Uddhav Thackeray his job in the government and possibly, his own party. A week is a long time in politics.
Eknath Shinde's enabler was Devendra Fadvanis who worked tirelessly to ensure the revolt did not start tiring. The BJP leader micromanaged the travel deets of the turncoats, flew from Mumbai to Delhi to consult with Amit Shah, engaged in briefings with top lawyer Harish Salve, and kept a line open constantly to the Governor who called for a floor test today. Uddhav Thackeray's group of 15 MLAs challenged that in the Supreme Court. A little after 9 pm last night, the judges ruled against them. By 9:30, Uddhav Thackeray was live on Facebook to disclose he was quitting.
Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray resigned last night
Eknath Shinde and his group are at a five-star hotel in Goa, the third of BJP-friendly destinations that they have chosen since they left Mumbai (Surat and Guwahati preceded their camp in Goa where they arrived on a chartered flight last night). Eknath Shinde is expected to meet with the Governor today to share his faction's plans to support Devendra Fadnavis. Between the Shinde corps and BJP MLAs, Devendra Fadnavis will have enough numbers to begin a third term as Chief Minister of his home state.
So it's in-through-the-out-door again for him. After the election in 2019, Uddhav Thackeray said the Shiv Sena would end its alliance with the BJP because the post of Chief Minister was not being allocated to each party for an equal amount of time, as agreed upon before the election take place. But the BJP had placed far more strongly than the Shiv Sena which gave it the power to demand new terms. Sharad Pawar began efforts to create a new alliance with the Sena and the Congress. But Devendra Fadnavis persuaded Sharad Pawar's nephew, Ajit, to break ranks with a section of the family's party. The Governor ensured Devendra Fadnavis took oath as Chief Minister at dawn, rushing to help the BJP come to power. It is not for nothing that Sharad Pawar is considered one of the best negotiators in politics. His nephew reconciled with him and the Fadnavis government was history. In 48 hours.
Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray (File photo)
Uddhav Thackeray's resignation speech was a measured balance between derision of Eknath Shinde, who he described as "an autowallah who had risen with the help of the Shiv Sena", and maturity. "I respect the Supreme Court's verdict," he said, "democracy is foremost." There was sarcasm for the Governor, whom he thanked for "respecting democracy so greatly that he called for a floor test in just 24 hours."
He also cautioned his band of Shiv Sainiks against violent protests when the Shinde corps return to Mumbai to begin plum assignments in the 'Mantralaya' (secretariat). The portfolios have been worked out with Shinde.
Rebel Maharashtra Shiv Sena MLAs led by Eknath Shinde
While the rebels will catapult the BJP back in to power in India's richest state, which sends 48 MPs to the Lok Sabha (second only to Uttar Pradesh), for Uddhav Thackeray, the focus will be on gauging the reaction of party cadre and voters. The fact that his party's spun away from him is due largely to the fact that he had been a distant leader for the last few months, unwilling, or unable, depending on who you speak to, to meet with ministers or MLAs. Both he and his son Aaditya, who was a young minister, have said that he was seriously unwell, yet gave his all to a demanding job and routine. The rebels, however, say that their request for appointments lingered for months, usually with no response. This seething resentment had reportedly been pointed out by Sharad Pawar in recent months in private reviews of their government.
All that Uddhav Thackeray is left with is the Sena's secondary power structures of Shakhas (branches), particularly in Mumbai. Uddhav Thackeray failed at getting his rebels back despite three emotional public appeals. The optics of a leader betrayed by his own are in place and could give any Bollywood tear-jerker a run for its money. Thackeray has also called himself the head of a family, let down by his truant children.
Uddhav Thackeray (file photo)
All of this will play into the crucial election in September for the municipal corporation in Bombay (BMC), which is the richest body in its league in the country. It is currently controlled by the Sena and Uddhav Thackeray has to ensure that does not change to remain relevant in Maharashtra political. Sources close to Uddhav Thackeray who I spoke to multiple times during the crisis said that he was in no mood to surrender the BMC. "This is now a fight for Balasaheb's legacy and Uddhav saheb will not give up. He is ready to fight to the finish with the BJP which is trying to destroy the Thackeray name and Sena in Maharashtra," he claimed.
Uddhav Thackeray has told Sharad Pawar that his team will remain in alliance with the NCP and the Congress. In his resignation speech, he name-checked both Sharad Pawar and Sonia Gandhi, thanking them for their support.
Team Thackeray says issues such as the "betrayal of Hindutva" as alleged by Eknath Shinde are excuses for a brazen hunger for power.
A quick swearing-in of Devendra Fadnavis is likely. And a savage campaign for the BMC as the BJP seeks to send the Thackeray family into political exile. It is the September election that will showcase who is now the real tiger of Mumbai.
(Swati Chaturvedi is an author and a journalist who has worked with The Indian Express, The Statesman and The Hindustan Times.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.