Opinion | Dissanayake's NPP Win: A Turning Point In India-Sri Lanka Ties?

Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake's leftist coalition, the National People's Power (NPP), made history by securing an unprecedented mandate in the country's snap parliamentary elections held on 14 November. The NPP coalition won 159 out of 225 seats in Sri Lanka's Parliament. This victory is a more significant achievement than Dissanayake's key presidential win in September, further consolidating his alliance's position from a fringe political force to the main player in Sri Lankan politics.

Previously, the NPP held only three seats in the outgoing Parliament, which led Dissanayake to dissolve it ahead of its full term in August 2025, seeking a fresh mandate to pursue his electoral promises.

Dissanayake's victories – first in the presidential elections in September and now in the snap parliamentary polls – have major implications for Sri Lanka's domestic and international politics. He now possesses the legislative power needed to advance his policies on alleviating poverty, fighting corruption, and steering the country out of financial crisis. At the same time, he must maintain a delicate geopolitical balance, especially between India and China.

On the Domestic Front

The NPP received overwhelming support from ethnic minorities, even in Tamil-majority areas in the north and east, where its candidates outperformed traditional Tamil nationalist parties. For the first time in the island nation's history, Tamils in the northern province district of Jaffna voted for Dissanayake's JVP (Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna), a Sinhala-Buddhist party. This marks a successful outreach and a shift in voter sentiment towards the NPP, which promises to improve the daily lives of the people.
The NPP's victory in the parliamentary elections gives President Dissanayake the legislative power needed to implement his policies, which are primarily focused on alleviating poverty and combating corruption. The country is still grappling with the aftermath of a financial collapse.

“The twin elections, especially the parliamentary one, are a game changer for the JVP-led NPP coalition. Overnight, they have moved to centre stage in the country's politics,” says Sripathi Narayanan, a New Delhi-based security and foreign policy analyst.

With traditional political heavyweights decimated in the elections, Dissanayake's NPP must act swiftly.
Sri Lanka's northern and eastern provinces, which endured 26 years of civil war between the LTTE (Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam) and the Government of Sri Lanka, remain impoverished with little sign of development. These regions lack industries or significant job opportunities, relying primarily on trade and fishing. There is now an opportunity for this government to focus on development in these areas. With the flight of Tamils and Muslims from Jaffna, this government has the chance to win them over by implementing developmental work, providing equitable opportunities, and ensuring fair governance.

One of the main promises of the NPP coalition was to abolish the executive presidency, which grants the President enormous powers – a long-standing demand of civil society.

Prosecutions of prominent individuals in corruption cases, as well as thorough investigations into Sri Lanka's horrific Easter terrorist attack in 2019 and targeted killings 15 years ago, were also pledged. The coalition's call to renegotiate the USD 2.9 billion International Monetary Fund bailout will also be under close scrutiny.

“Sri Lanka has still not overcome its economic challenges. Therefore, much of the administration's focus will be on the state of the economy, particularly issues affecting people's daily lives, which were key factors in the NPP coalition's public mandate,” says Narayanan.

Implications for India

The NPP's parliamentary majority has significant implications for India, given its strategic interests in Sri Lanka. Adding to this, China's growing economic footprint and political influence in Sri Lanka have further strained India-Sri Lanka relations.

President Dissanayake is known for his anti-India and pro-China stance. Historically, Dissanayake's party, the JVP, opposed the 1987 India-Sri Lanka Accord and did not support the 13th Amendment to the Sri Lankan Constitution, which sought to devolve powers to Tamil minorities. These have been sensitive issues for India.

Conversely, the JVP has always viewed China as a friend and maintains wide contacts with the Chinese Communist Party.

Dissanayake's criticisms of Indian projects, particularly renewable energy projects, have raised concerns in India.

“It's a leftist position to scrap all projects involving India. Dissanayake has categorically stated that he plans to renegotiate all Indian projects. This signals that he is unlikely to move forward with the previously planned projects with India,” says Gooneratne.

However, recently Dissanayake has made positive remarks regarding granting political rights to Tamil communities, suggesting a readiness to engage with India on these issues.

He has also repeatedly assured that he will not permit Sri Lanka's territory to be used against India. He has expressed a desire to engage with India and maintain cordial relations. Dissanayake visited India as early as February 2024 and met with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval.

India, too, has proactively engaged with Dissanayake since his presidential win.
EAM Jaishankar visited Sri Lanka in October this year and met Dissanayake to strengthen bilateral ties.

“President Dissanayake chose India for his first foreign visit after taking office, which is significant. He accepted India's official invitation. We have many examples in the past showing that without India's close relationship, Sri Lanka cannot move forward,” says Thushara Gooneratne, editor-in-chief of Mawrata News.

President Dissanayake has also acknowledged India's economic and humanitarian support for development efforts in Sri Lanka. Recently, he has been critical of Chinese-backed projects, such as the Hambantota Port.

“On the bilateral front, much give and take can be expected. This will reflect both the cost-benefit assessments by both sides and the local conditions affecting specific points of engagement,” says Narayanan.

“For instance, a legal procedure has been initiated in Sri Lanka on projects of interest to India. This legal process must reach its logical conclusion before anyone can draw any conclusions,” he adds.
The current engagement reflects India's continued prioritisation of its relationship with Sri Lanka under the Neighbourhood First policy.

As Sri Lanka navigates its political and economic uncertainties, it needs India as a constant support and partner. A positive view suggests opportunities for enhanced collaboration in areas such as trade, maritime security, and people-to-people connections, further strengthening India's influence and leadership in the region.

(The author is Contributing Editor, NDTV)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author