Coming just days after the exit poll claims, the results of the general election may come as some sort of setback for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Narendra Modi is likely to begin his third term as the Prime Minister, albeit on a not-so-emphatic mandate.
Let's not forget that the BJP had claimed that it would win 370 seats and, along with its allies, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would cross the 400-mark. The exit polls also hinted that the NDA might be successful in breaching that tally. So, did the BJP misread the situation, or did it refuse to read the writing on the wall?
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In December last year, when the BJP won in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, it was assumed that the party would have an easy victory in the Lok Sabha election. Their confidence was compounded manifold by the Ram Mandir consecration as well as Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's somersault from the INDIA bloc to the NDA. The opposition alliance had been in total disarray back then. But a substantial turnout drop in the initial phase of voting was perhaps the first indication that things were not moving in the right direction for the party. The turnout didn't improve in the rest of the phases either. As the BJP fails to reach the majority mark on its own, it will be pertinent to analyse what led to this situation.
1. 10 Years Of Anti-Incumbency
As I have been saying from the beginning, 10 years of anti-incumbency may have damaged the BJP government's performance in the elections. The Modi government also refused to acknowledge the three issues that have made an ordinary citizen's life difficult: price rise, unemployment and corruption. The first two figured in every opinion poll as top issues, but the BJP government failed to take enough remedial steps.
2. Top-Down Approach
Did the BJP witness an erosion of seats in key battleground states because of the perceived top-down approach? Let us not forget that Indian civilisation puts a premium on values like humility and showing tolerance and respect to even adversaries.
3. Victory Taken For Granted?
With the Ram Mandir consecration, the BJP perhaps took victory for granted. It is true that at the time, many in the opposition were also so demoralised that some in hushed tones admitted that the elections would be a cakewalk for the ruling party. It is also true that the enthusiasm around the Ram Temple was total, but the BJP in a way could not gauge that this fervour would not automatically translate into votes.
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4. The Hyper-Focus On Congress Manifesto
The BJP, it can be argued now, perhaps committed a blunder by reacting so aggressively to the Congress manifesto and comparing it to Muhammad Ali Jinnah's Muslim League manifesto of 1935. The attack inadvertently brought the Congress document centre stage and made it the talk of the town. After a long time, it was the Congress that was setting the agenda, with the BJP reacting to it.
5. The Constitution Row
The BJP never expected that the slogan of "400 paar" would boomerang like this. Statements by leaders like Anant Hegde, that the BJP needed 400 seats to change the Constitution, angered Dalits and backward classes and instilled a fear that the party would take away their constitutional rights and privileges. This led to a silent but strong reaction from these sections. Rahul Gandhi and other INDIA leaders, meanwhile, carried a copy of the Constitution and waved it in rallies, banking on that sentiment. Let's not forget that Dalits identify deeply with Babasaheb Ambedkar, the architect of the Constitution, and the debate around it seemed to them like an assault on Ambedkar's legacy.
6. Fears Around Reservation
The Opposition linked the Constitution debate to reservations, and it turned into a discussion about how the BJP might take away reservations given to SCs, STs and OBCs if it came back to power. Rahul Gandhi constantly hammered on the issue and it appears that this might have caught the imagination of these groups.
7. The Waning Appeal Of A Hindu-Muslim Rhetoric
Prime Minister Modi tried to polarise voters on communal lines, but the anti-Muslim rhetoric did not resonate well with voters. As a CSDS survey during the elections indicated, voters were largely growing weary of the Hindu-Muslim binary. Only for 2% of respondents Hindutva was an election issue, while more than 50% believed that India is a plural society and it should remain so. This election has underlined the limits of Hindutva as well as the fact that communal polarisation can't be exploited beyond a point if economic delivery is poor. This election has also shown that the more Muslims were attacked, the more determined they were to vote unitedly against the BJP.
8. A Determined Opposition Front
The tenacity of the INDIA bloc is another important factor. Opposition leaders, despite being on a weak wicket, continued their attacks and did not let the BJP successfully weave its own narrative. This was perhaps the ruling party's biggest failure.
9. The Arrival Of Rahul Gandhi
Rahul Gandhi has emerged as a very serious contender in this election. His two Bharat Jodo yatras did wonders, bestowing credibility on both Congress and Rahul.
Finally, a question that must be asked is, why didn't free ration to 80 crore not help the BJP get 272 seats?
Every election is different. The BJP may still form the government, but the aura of party's electoral invincibility stands dented. All this might lead to a different kind of politics in the coming days. Interesting times ahead.
(Ashutosh is the author of 'Hindu Rashtra' and co-founder of SatyaHindi.com)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author