Opinion: Elections 2024-Can A Slogan Alter Poll Outcome? Not Possible

TV anchors of a particular persuasion have resumed their fervent commentary in recent days. They vociferously criticised Lalu Yadav's apparent audacity in discussing Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his family. In their perspective, Lalu Yadav had 'insulted' Modi. Paradoxically, they also argued that Lalu's remarks would boomerang on the INDIA alliance, inflicting a heavy toll. Some even ventured to predict that Modi would secure a substantial victory, akin to his triumphs in 2014 and 2019.

In 2014, Congress leader Mani Shankar Aiyar had mocked Modi's background as a 'Chaiwala' (tea seller), and in 2019, Rahul Gandhi had used the "Chaukidar Chor hai" (the guard is the thief) jibe against Modi. On both the occasions, Modi utilised these attacks to portray himself as a victim of opposition assaults. It was asserted that Modi's electoral triumph was facilitated by the opposition's 'abuse', which he adeptly leveraged to his advantage.

Modi's Counter-attack

Just as in the past, Modi has attempted to mount a counterattack on the INDIA alliance. He seized upon Lalu's mention of "Parivar" (family) and coined a new slogan, 'Mai Bhi Modi ka parivar' (I am also Modi's family). Cabinet ministers, Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) chief ministers, party officials, and cadre, were quick to add "Mai Bhi Modi ka parivar" into their social media bios. This strategy is similar to the one we saw in 2019 when Rahul's "Chaukidar Chor hai" phrase was transformed into 'Mai Bhi chaukidar' (I too am a guard).

The notion that elections in India could be swayed by a single statement is wishful thinking. Such a simplistic argument reflects lazy articulation, lacking an understanding of Indian realities. For parties and leaders, such remarks, at best, are used as an excuse to launch counter-attacks. Elections, on the other hand, are won or lost on genuine issues. While politicians may attempt to shift public focus, success in doing so is rare. Similarly, the elections in 2014 and 2019 were not won or lost because of the non-serious statements of Mani Shankar Aiyar and Rahul Gandhi.

Why Congress Really Lost The 2014 Elections

The 2014 elections signalled a paradigm shift in India's electoral history. Corruption allegations had eroded the Congress's credibility to such an extent that a change of government was imminent. Modi astutely capitalised on public discontent with the Congress, framing the election as a referendum on its politics, dynasty, and entitlement, intertwined with the broader narrative of Hindutva. He projected himself as a national saviour with solutions to all of India's problems. Modi's political acumen, combined with Congress's lackluster campaign and demoralised cadre, ensured his victory. Aiyar's "Chaiwala" jibe added further fuel to the fire, providing additional fodder for Modi's campaign.

In 2019, Modi faced challenges until the Pulwama incident reshaped the political landscape. Amidst concerns that Modi might not secure a majority in the Lok Sabha, heightened nationalism following the Pulwama attack and the subsequent Balakot airstrike overshadowed other issues. Rahul Gandhi's "Chaukidar Chor" statement faded into obscurity as Modi's narrative of national security and strong leadership prevailed. The BJP secured a resounding victory with 303 seats.

Brand Modi In 2019

The Congress, under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi, secured victory in assembly elections in three states - Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh - in December 2018. Prior to these elections, the BJP had faced setbacks, failing to secure wins in Karnataka's assembly elections, and struggling in Gujarat despite the presence of Modi and Shah. However, following the terrorist attack in Pulwama, which claimed the lives of 39 CRPF personnel, and the subsequent surgical strike in Balakot by the Indian army, heightened nationalism dominated the discourse. The rallying cry of 'Pakistan ko ghus ke mara' (we went into Pakistan and took revenge) became the dominant theme, overshadowing other issues. By the time votes were cast, Rahul Gandhi's earlier remarks about Modi, including the "Chaukidar Chor" statement, had faded into obscurity. Brand Modi emerged victorious, with the BJP securing 303 seats.

Much like in the past, voters in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections are likely to exercise their franchise based on their perception of the Modi government's performance over the last five years. Modi has cultivated an image of change under his leadership, emphasising reduced corruption, enhanced security, and increased global stature for India. His government's response to the unprecedented medical crisis during Covid-19, including free vaccination for 140 crore people and free ration for 80 crore poor citizens, has been highlighted. However, these claims by the Modi government can be contested legitimately.

BJP's Challenges This Time

The opposition, united under the umbrella of INDIA, has accused the Modi government of undermining democracy, misusing central agencies to target opposition parties, and intimidating opposition leaders. Opinion polls consistently highlight concerns over rising prices, unemployment, and threats to minority rights. The BJP and its right-wing allies are accused of openly targeting some social groups, while government agencies are criticised for their perceived inaction.

In this context, suggesting that elections will be decided solely by Lalu Yadav's statements challenges the collective wisdom of the voter. It implies that, even after 77 years of independence, voters have not embraced democratic consciousness and are still guided by herd mentality, allowing leaders to evade accountability for their actions. However, historical examples suggest otherwise; Indira Gandhi's defeat after the emergency in 1977 and subsequent resurgence, as well as the trust placed in leaders like Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Narendra Modi, illustrate the electorate's innate wisdom.

Just For Flavour

Indian society is dynamic. While the Modi government has been granted two opportunities to govern, convincing voters of their worthiness for a third term won't be easy for the BJP. Likewise, the opposition, led by INDIA, must undertake substantial efforts before staking a claim.

Frivolous statements may add flavour to political discourse, like a chutney does to a meal, but they can never be a substitute for substantive policy discussions and the kind of influence they have on people's mind.

(Ashutosh is the author of 'Hindu Rashtra' and Editor, satyahindi.com)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.