The exit polls released on June 1 have predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi may return for a third consecutive term with a thumping majority. As per NDTV Data Centre's poll of polls, while the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to get 365 seats, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) bloc may get 146. Non-aligned parties are estimated to get 32 seats.
The BJP is seen gaining in Southern and Eastern India and retaining the majority of its seats in the Northern and Western regions. If ultimately, the results on June 4 mirror the exit poll trends, then 2024 will be considered another wave election that most pollsters did not see coming.
The BJP's campaign in 2024 was based on a three-pronged strategy of ‘Regain', ‘Attain' and ‘Maintain'. In North and West, the party is seen maintaining its dominance with only marginal losses. And it may more than make up for it in the East and South.
In the South, the BJP is expected to open its account in Kerala and Tamil Nadu at the cost of the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) in Telangana. While it is expected to suffer some losses in Karnataka — where it is facing stiff competition from the Congress's guarantees — it is compensating for this with gains in Andhra Pradesh, with new ally Telugu Desam Party (TDP) expected to win a majority of seats.
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The BJP may also add to its tally in Odisha and West Bengal, building on its momentum of 2019, when the party made significant inroads here at the expense of regional parties, namely, the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and the Trinamool Congress (TMC).
The NDA is expected to gain a few seats in Uttar Pradesh while losing a couple in Rajasthan and Haryana on account of the Rajput and Jat discontent. In Bihar, it may lose a few seats as it maxed out in the state in 2019. In Maharashtra, the most complex battle, the BJP might be able to contain some damage.
Battleground States
There are six battleground states in the 2024 election accounting for 259 seats - almost half of the Lok Sabha strength. In 2019, the NDA won 196 of these seats. The INDIA bloc parties got 40 and non-aligned parties 23. In all these states, the opposition hoped to make a dent in the NDA's tally, banking on changed political equations, the emergence of new alliances, as well as the track record of the respective state governments.
For the NDA, too, these states are important as in 2019, the alliance won 196 out of the 353 seats here, which accounted for more than half of its total tally. These states are critical for the NDA's “maintain” strategy. These are also states where the alliance hopes to “attain” seats, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Odisha.
Bihar Contest
In Bihar, the NDA won 39 out of the 40 seats in 2019, while INDIA bloc constituents got just one. The poll of polls this year estimates that the alliance could be reduced to 33 seats in the state while the INDIA bloc gets six. Several factors, like the decline in the popularity of Nitish Kumar due to his constant flip-flops, Tejashwi Yadav's youth appeal, anti-incumbency against sitting MPs, and the broadening of the Muslim-Yadav base by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), could make this possible.
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Next, in Karnataka, the NDA won 26 out of the total 28 seats in 2019, while INDIA constituents got just two. The poll of polls estimates that the NDA's tally could drop to 22 seats this election, while INDIA may get six. The Siddaramaiah government's guarantees, the consolidation of AHINDA, anti-incumbency against sitting MPs, and Prajwal Revanna's sex scandal. could play spoilers here.
A Multi-Cornered Fight In Maharashtra
Maharashtra presents a complex battle. The NDA won 41 out of the 48 seats here in 2019, while INDIA parties got six. The AIMIM had won just a single seat. The poll of polls estimates that 29 seats may go to the NDA this time, while INDIA may win 19. The NDA is expected to lose 12 seats here. The split in Shiv Sena has led to a loss of both vote and seat share for the NDA given that the Uddhav Thackeray faction - an INDIA bloc ally - holds significant sway over traditional supporters of the party.
It seems both Uddhav and Sharad Pawar earned some sympathy from the public as they lost official symbols to rival groups. In fact, the INDIA bloc expects to defeat the NDA in Maharashtra, being touted as the mother of all battles. The poll of polls suggests that they might even have succeeded to a large extent, though the national character of the elections and the popularity of Modi have helped the BJP rein in some.
Advantage BJP In Bengal?
In West Bengal, the NDA won 18 out of 42 seats in 2019, while the Trinamool and the Congress, fighting separately then, had got 24 seats.
The two are not in an alliance this time as well, though Mamata claims to be an integral part of the INDIA bloc. Here, polls estimate that the BJP may gain five seats at the expense of the Trinamool. This could be due to a variety of factors, such as a dent in the Trinamool's women support after the Sandeshkhali incident, polarisation due to the implementation of new citizenship rules, anti-incumbency against the 13-year-old Mamata government, and so on.
BSP May Play Spoiler In Uttar Pradesh
The NDA won 64 of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh in 2019, while the INDIA bloc's Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress, fighting separately then, won six. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), then in alliance with the SP, had bagged 10 seats. Polls predict that the NDA will gain four seats in Uttar Pradesh and the INDIA bloc will add six at the expense of the BSP, which is contesting separately this time, making it a triangular contest.
The NDA is expected to hold on to its seats and gain additional ones too due to the popularity of the Modi-Yogi government trumping the Muslim-Yadav support of SP-Congress. Uttar Pradesh is the epicentre of the Ram Mandir movement and the BJP seems to have benefited from its inauguration.
A Possible Split Verdict In Odisha
In Odisha, the NDA won eight out of 21 seats in 2019, while the BJD won 12. The BJP is estimated to double its tally to 15 seats, creating a split verdict amid simultaneous polls in the state. People may have voted for a national party in the general election and the regional party in state polls.
Overall, in battleground states, the NDA's tally may fall marginally from 196 to 190, with the INDIA bloc gaining at the expense of both the NDA and other parties, winning 63 seats. Others are expected to win just six seats — a loss of 17.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author